Pretty sure SCTY won't affect 2016 full year sales number. Most cash burn in Tesla is the cap ex for future manufacturing capacity. The current production capacity to make 80k to 90k car this year is already in place.
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Pretty sure SCTY won't affect 2016 full year sales number. Most cash burn in Tesla is the cap ex for future manufacturing capacity. The current production capacity to make 80k to 90k car this year is already in place.
Yup, exactly what I thought. I never get why some people here are saying the smaller guy working out of a van is better.
Also, isn't all installer big or small use a van to come to your home anyway?? Unless they are implying the smaller installer are LIVING inside their van as residence to save additional installation cost for solar customers ;-)
One thing that keeps baffling me is the customer acquisition cost. If solar city has over 30% market share, shouldn't average customer acquisition cost be lover? How is it possible that many small installers offer much better deals than solar city?
Only logical answer I seem to get is the business model has a much higher operational & marketing cost. But doesn't that say something? This is completely different unlike Tesla where there is almost NO customer acquisition cost (well, now you have $1000 referral credits.. but no ads. NO ADS). This doesn't make the model innovative.
If Tesla really wants to integrate solar with batteries, it needs to open up its power wall design, and create a process for other solar panel manufacturers to integrate and validate the system against it. Also, Tesla can make the solar panel installers the distributors of power wall as well. I don't think this system would require much maintenance (car battery - moving and abuse on road - doesn't require much maintenance).
I just don't see a good technical reason to get into a commodity business.
Only logical answer I seem to get is the business model has a much higher operational & marketing cost. But doesn't that say something? This is completely different unlike Tesla where there is almost NO customer acquisition cost (well, now you have $1000 referral credits.. but no ads. NO ADS). This doesn't make the model innovative.
If Tesla really wants to integrate solar with batteries, it needs to open up its power wall design, and create a process for other solar panel manufacturers to integrate and validate the system against it. Also, Tesla can make the solar panel installers the distributors of power wall as well. I don't think this system would require much maintenance (car battery - moving and abuse on road - doesn't require much maintenance).
I just don't see a good technical reason to get into a commodity business.
there are already multiple solar installers using Powerwall. Although, Elon plan to make the next version of Powerwall to be fully integrated with SolarCity only. That doesn't prevent other solar installer from using it though, like Elon has stated in the conference call.
My point is that cost benefits can be achieved with the support of multiple installers. If the battery solution is really what customers need, installers would bend over backward to cut cost and be compatible with everything Tesla demands.
Norbert
TSLA will win
I'm not a marketing expert, but I think this approach works well for the case where the "need" is already established, while for a substantially innovative product a more dedicated sales, promotional and educational approach is advantageous. I believe Tesla is very happy with the approach of selling Model S/X though dedicated Tesla shops, as opposed to letting car dealers do it. (Aside from the advantage of an integrated, well-tested, electrical system (probably including software) of solar panels, energy storage and also car charger).
Gerardf
Active Member
I did not check the full text of the call, but I do not think he said that.
My impression was he wants to make an innovation step by introducing a better integration on the system level, but my guess is he will make it open for anybody to mimic that. The opening of all automotive Patents shows Elon's position in such matters.
Krugerrand
Meow
No he doesn't. Poster has a history on this forum. Recently he's decided to be viciously sarcastic because he thinks a merger will plummet Tesla stock and he'll gain financially on his shorting of the stock.
I believe that after all due diligence is done, which is supposed to take month or two, what you saying will be proven correct.
Until then we will hear a lot from Tesla Motors fans who have not embraced Tesla Energy yet and TSLA and SCTY disgruntled shorts spreading FUD.
Those anti-Solarcity, how do you think Solarcity has financed billions of dollars of installs on ~300-400mln annual income? I guess those long lists of tax equity partners are making financially unprofitable decisions and also should be out of business for repeatedly, over and over again, investing in these vehicles for years now.
Surely Solarcity should have been bankrupt for years now, how are they even in existence form 2006 to today?
How are rating agencies giving them BBB+, which are better ratings then Xcel energy and other traditional utilities paper? Those rating agencies must be fooled, right?
How is it they have over a 99% on time payment history on all instslls, with an average FICO score of over 740 on those 20 years of monthly payments? They have over $12bln in nominal contracted payments coming in over the next 20 years, the I guess they are really fooling these rooftop solar customers too.
If you have any real facts to say Solarcity would be any burden on tesla, please bring it to the table here. It's actually the opposite.
Solarcity can find itself much better then tesla can, just compare how many stock offerings have been made on the public markets and you'll see who's diluting their shareholders at a much higher rate. It is a glaring obvious fact, Solarcity has many more avenues of access to capital then tesla does, it's not even close. It anything, tesla will use Solarcity to raise money for its operations, not the other way around.
Surely Solarcity should have been bankrupt for years now, how are they even in existence form 2006 to today?
How are rating agencies giving them BBB+, which are better ratings then Xcel energy and other traditional utilities paper? Those rating agencies must be fooled, right?
How is it they have over a 99% on time payment history on all instslls, with an average FICO score of over 740 on those 20 years of monthly payments? They have over $12bln in nominal contracted payments coming in over the next 20 years, the I guess they are really fooling these rooftop solar customers too.
If you have any real facts to say Solarcity would be any burden on tesla, please bring it to the table here. It's actually the opposite.
Solarcity can find itself much better then tesla can, just compare how many stock offerings have been made on the public markets and you'll see who's diluting their shareholders at a much higher rate. It is a glaring obvious fact, Solarcity has many more avenues of access to capital then tesla does, it's not even close. It anything, tesla will use Solarcity to raise money for its operations, not the other way around.
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The issues would probably be around cash burn - they are losing money.
And barriers to entry - I could go out tommorrow and start a solar company by importing panels and inverters and getting a local contractor to install them.
Not a comment on the worthiness of the deal, more a reflection of realities.
And barriers to entry - I could go out tommorrow and start a solar company by importing panels and inverters and getting a local contractor to install them.
Not a comment on the worthiness of the deal, more a reflection of realities.
I think most people guess that if stock has dropped 70% there must be something wrong with the company.
Go buy panels and get them installed. I'm sure you won't do it, just as the vast majority of the market doesn't do that. Solarcity has over 34% of the US residential market, more then the next 70 competitors combined. The reality is they are very differentiated and have the gigawatts deployed to prove it. That's reality, can't dispute fact.
Solarcity is not cash burning at all. Every single install is profitable year one, and every single tax equity investor that have put in billions of dollars toward these installs knows that, including every rating agency that has done their due diligence and given them investment grade ratings, better then some major utiltiies within the untied states right now.
They, at any moment, can slow growth to reduce capital investment to reflect cash flow positive. They have done that. It is not a demand issue here, they are growing aggressively and will continue to do so at a compounding clip. This is a matter of how fast they can expand, not about the market drying up.
It is not reality to logically think otherwise. Best to reassess on this fact. Then reason up from there on Solarcity.
Tesla can offer a product that costs less to make and sell for more than than their competitors charge. They would also access new consumers who want good looking, reliable system that saves the world... and charges their EV who do not care as much about saving few dollars (no more silly 30 year lease terms).
Tesla can do that eliminating component overlap while designing modular system for easy fit and quick installation (savings in labor cost). Such integrated product also save money on warranty and service. Silevo panels would nicely complete the package as one of the most efficient (and good looking?) panels on the market.
It is a competitive industry though, I know in mature solar markets like Germany and Australia the level of academic research across universities in reducing the costs and improving efficiency is simply huge, and I'm sure the Chinese are throwing huge sums of money at it too.
However if SC is leading the commercial realisation of improved product and design, then the sky is the limit.
Don't need to, there are 8,000 solar companies in the USA and its growing. How many electric vehicle companies in the USA, about 4 or 5? Where SC has the advantage it is because it is manufacturer and designer of product. That gives it the edge. It could sew the market up if it has the best product - which it probably does and coupled with the Tesla sales channel that no one else has access to.
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