Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[SebastienBonny]

Don't think I've ever seen such a boring outlook for the next quarter in years, if ever. Right now it does not feel like we are breaking past 200 any time soon. Not sure if I'm capitulating but I'm tempted to go @Max Plaid and sell ATM weekly calls on most of my shares and just wheel aggressively if they do get called away.

I don't know if it's the stock performance or the Elon/Twitter drama but I'm feeling less compelled to hold every share with a death grip these days. The memories of the great rallies over the last 10 years are starting to get fuzzier and I just don't see us breaking out of this range anytime soon. What's the next real catalyst? A Fed pause maybe in May, but I'm not sure if that will even make a difference.

This is a transition year I think.
We have CT coming and Megapack ramping (my guess is 20 GWh by eoy), so I think we will be rather flat for quite some time.
My catalysts are CT ramping, Megapack full production and a compact model. We're looking at 24 or 25 to achieve this and to see it in the quarterly reports.
With current numbers and a 50 P/E we're at a SP of 200 maximum.

I think this is the time to sell CC's a bit more aggressive and harvest more shares as I don't see us trading a lot above 200 in the near term.
Like I said, compact model will open a whole new market, but we're talking about 2 years before that to happen.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

This is a transition year I think.
We have CT coming and Megapack ramping (my guess is 20 GWh by eoy), so I think we will be rather flat for quite some time.
My catalysts are CT ramping, Megapack full production and a compact model. We're looking at 24 or 25 to achieve this and to see it in the quarterly reports.
With current numbers and a 50 P/E we're at a SP of 200 maximum.

I think this is the time to sell CC's a bit more aggressive and harvest more shares as I don't see us trading a lot above 200 in the near term.
Like I said, compact model will open a whole new market, but we're talking about 2 years before that to happen.

It's not a great prospect for our shares for the next 12-18 months, but a flattish stock price is a great opportunity for us option sellers.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

So presumably taking out the 160 Gap-up today, I guess. And if we don't hold that as a close, 143 will be the big challenge. (Maybe a buy-the-dip ralley in between up to (test) 177, which is the last gap-up-close-trial-bottom)

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Wondering what will happen to the 165 puts I sold hoping to close today but didn't.

like my -P172.5's I hope for a buy-the-dip or else I will virtually roll into -C (not going to be trapped again into rolling and rolling and rolling -P). Again, reaction will be better than going on the first move after market open. FED is not coming to the rescue any time soon, so this one could turn out to be very ugly.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

It's not just the ER that drives SP, we'll start getting analyst notes downgrades/upgrades starting tomorrow - that can move SP significantly.

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https://www...?utm_source=webullapp.com&utm_medium=referral

Jefferies is of some help..

 

[SebastienBonny]

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https://www...?utm_source=webullapp.com&utm_medium=referral

Jefferies is of some help..

On the other hand... Maybe some analysts will see yesterdays numbers as positive, because they expected worse and Tesla is holding up quite good in difficult macro-economic circumstances.

 

[Max Plaid]

I'm with you but I'll be cautious with the weekly calls when it reaches closer to 160.

It's my intention to write at -c190, maybe edge down a bit, but certainly to avoid ATM calls - that's what caught some of us out in January when we got the big move up from $130

This time feels different though, the December crash felt fake, this drop is more organic based on underwhelming, although not disastrous, results

What looks interesting is shifting to a 2-week cycle, so sell 50x -c190 for 21/4 & 50x for 5/5, then when 21/4 is expired/closed, 50x 13/5, and so on

Catalysts? Well delivery volumes, for sure - Q2 already way ahead of Q1 in Europe. CT order page might move the needle a bit, I'm surprised the generally positive news about it from the earnings call did help much. The forex costs are a bit confusing and also a surprise that commodity prices peaked in Q1, thought they had dropped already

What didn't help the narrative at all was Elon saying that future margin would come from FSD, I think he's living in a bit of a fantasy land over that, regardless of how good it is, still a long way off being monetised

Long-term thesis is unchanged, short term, be careful, don't fly too close to the sun...

 

[Max Plaid]

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https://www...?utm_source=webullapp.com&utm_medium=referral

Jefferies is of some help..

The perpetual negative bias is incredible, they had to add "However, on April 10, Bernstein assigned a Sell rating to Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)"

Bernstein has a sell rating on TSLA since January 2020 and before that it was a hold! Total BS, but OK, we all know it...

 

[rikkert]

Half of my position is in Jan17'25 LEAPs with 150 strike. I plan to aggressively sell weekly/biweekly calls against those. Not sure yet what I'll do when they are going to be assigned - either roll, or BTC and sell LEAPs ("DIY assignment"). Of course wheeling is not possible with LEAPs, so that limits the possibilities.

 

[juanmedina]

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https://www...?utm_source=webullapp.com&utm_medium=referral

Jefferies is of some help..

Piper Sandler reiterated a $300 price targets.

I wonder what will the trading range be; $200-160? I am tempted about selling 175cc for 5/05 and even if they end up ITM I should be able to roll until they expire. I just don't see any catalyst that will move the stock other than Tesla opening the Cybertruck configurator. I just feel that I need to be careful around the Fed meetings and P&D but that's it. Right now Troy has us at way under the delivery consensus and I know it is too early to know what will happen.

 

[SebastienBonny]

Piper Sandler reiterated a $300 price targets.

I wonder what will the trading range be; $200-160? I am tempted about selling 175cc for 5/05 and even if they end up ITM I should be able to roll until they expire. I just don't see any catalyst that will move the stock other than Tesla opening the Cybertruck configurator. I just feel that I need to be careful around the Fed meetings and P&D but that's it. Right now Troy has us at way under the delivery consensus and I know it is too early to know what will happen.

If Elon talks about CT delivery event in Q3, the the configurator can't be that far away I guess.

 

[vikings123]

Half of my position is in Jan17'25 LEAPs with 150 strike. I plan to aggressively sell weekly/biweekly calls against those. Not sure yet what I'll do when they are going to be assigned - either roll, or BTC and sell LEAPs ("DIY assignment"). Of course wheeling is not possible with LEAPs, so that limits the possibilities.

Be careful with LEAPS especially slightly ITM or OTM. Yes you can sell more weekly calls but if the stock continues to drop you are going to be fighting a losing battle.

It might be a better idea to sell those and do CSPs with the cash. I actually have some 100$ LEAPS and plan to convert them to shares or cash on any strength. Not advice of course but time to be extra defensive.

 

[bingoz]

Because of? Bounces?

164 is where we bounced last time. ~160 is the 0.5 fibo retracement from the bottom 102 to 217. I will not sell ATM at 160, but will do if 160 can't hold.

Piper Sandler reiterated a $300 price targets.

I wonder what will the trading range be; $200-160? I am tempted about selling 175cc for 5/05 and even if they end up ITM I should be able to roll until they expire. I just don't see any catalyst that will move the stock other than Tesla opening the Cybertruck configurator. I just feel that I need to be careful around the Fed meetings and P&D but that's it. Right now Troy has us at way under the delivery consensus and I know it is too early to know what will happen.

Thanks for the idea. Will see how the premium of -c175 5/5 looks like when the market open.

 

[bingoz]

Just sharing another idea from @Yoona

https://twitter.com/x/status/1649036989058932736

 

[Max Plaid]

Ouch, that's some IV crush!

 

[Max Plaid]

OK, some opportunist scalping: STO 30x -c175 @$1.1

Please make me roll them...

 

[UltradoomY]

Quick update -
STO July $220's for $8.05 each just now
STO - $170P's for $3 this morning (this week)
STO - $190C's for $3.75 a few minutes ago (this week)

Leaving these through earnings for IV crush (not the July calls, those will be unaffected by that)

Now I have some "skin" in the game for tonight besides the long term shares and leaps.

July Calls above are against my December 2025 $200 leaps - so there is plenty of room to roll out and up for profit or let them waste away.

Loved the earnings report and conference call - the leadership is executing their plan and it is only going to build momentum the rest of the year.

This morning -
Closed the July $220's for 50% - in for $8.05 - out for $4 each
Closed this week $170P - in for $3 - out for $3.50 each - not ideal but still....
Closed this week $190C - in for $3.75 - out for 0.10 each - very ideal

Round trip for holding through earnings - $7.20 per contract - I was equal weight on all of these so a VERY good week last night / this morning.

Looking to open some ATM calls for next week on a bump to max pain tomorrow and some Puts around $165 sometime today on a dip.

Cheers!

 

[intelligator]

OK, some opportunist scalping: STO 30x -c175 @$1.1

Please make me roll them...

Wow, they are .59 now !

 

[bingoz]

STO -c180 4/28 at the open when ppl was taking profits. Got a quick 20%. If >40% intraday, and stock price stay >160, will close and wait for the another entry. Otherwise, I keep the position till next week and hope for an opportunity to roll.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Wow, they are .59 now !

The still-elevated IV at market open after a catalyst that falls shortly thereafter can be a great opportunity for scalping.