dc_h
Active Member
India likely an M2 plant, so new capacity, but yes, long term.
I got anxious and BTC C240's this morning, thinking we'd bounce after MMD.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I got anxious and BTC C240's this morning, thinking we'd bounce after MMD.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Sometimes doing nothing is the best strategy.
A couple Twitter accounts that I follow had posted some early EPS numbers before the P/D numbers came out. They were only projecting a slight beat. EPS should likely be higher now that deliveries came in higher than expected, especially S/X, but now EPS estimates have moved higher as well.
A couple key factors. Cybertruck has now moved from CAPEX to actual earnings impact now, so it could weigh on margins and EPS but the flipside is the cashflow could come in higher than expected. The margins on Highland 3 have yet to be seen though Tesla clearly mentioned that Highland 3 was cheaper to produce than the old 3. So we'll see how much Tesla was spot on for that. China Y prices went up in Q4 but inventory price cuts in US for the Y end of year were pretty substantial. EV specific minerals and materials saw big declines in Q4. But who knows how all of it works out in the end.
Another key factor is that on the Q3 earnings, Drew made some comments about Megapack that I personally took, as him hinting that Energy will see a jump in revenue from Q3 to Q4. If you have the energy (pun intended) to load up the Q3 earnings transcript, he talks about the lumpiness in revenue recognition for Megapack, also mentions some big projects reaching their completion. I took it as him saying the reason that Energy revenue flatlined from Q2 to Q3 was because a number of projects were going to be completed in Q4 and thus revenue recognition will jump materially from Q3 to Q4. I could be wrong and reading into it too much, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Energy as the shining star for Tesla's earnings in Q4.
So far we've yet to see a quarter where Tesla Energy saw both a big jump in revenue and margin. It's always been one or the other. I think when we finally see that quarter where both jump materially higher, Wall St will start to give Tesla more credit for it's Energy business.
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At this feeble push:
STO -C300 5/17/24 @$7.85
STO -C300 4/19/24 @$5.50
A handful of each for either scalp to close at ~$232 again or just hold.
Like the weather in Seattle, WA or Manchester, England, if you don't like Tesla's share price, just wait a few minutes
I wouldn't mind for TSLA to makes it over $235 and aim higher as I'm positioned more heavily bullish overall.
STO -C300 5/17/24 @$7.85
STO -C300 4/19/24 @$5.50
A handful of each for either scalp to close at ~$232 again or just hold.
Like the weather in Seattle, WA or Manchester, England, if you don't like Tesla's share price, just wait a few minutes
I wouldn't mind for TSLA to makes it over $235 and aim higher as I'm positioned more heavily bullish overall.
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thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
No. 1/19. Theta is short for time value.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
That's some conviction. Dl003 is officially a Bull.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Yes, I was reading it wrong. But still a Bull nevertheless.....until he say he a Bear.
Update: I flip rolled the 1/12 +p205/-p225 to 1/19 -c247.5/+c287.5 for .90 , left the +p200/-p220 for tomorrow or Friday, would prefer to have those expire.
I don't like that it took SPY +0.5% for TSLA to get up to the 235 resistance.So this is what's termed a "bounce" these days
Or were you referring to the macro...?
The structure looks corrective
I saw the falling wedge earlier and expected it to bounce back to the beginning of the wedge @ 235. It did so ok, I'm not feeling any rush to add delta right now.
This intraday chart is not the "immediately punishing to the bears" chart I'm looking for at the bottom. Refer to the 212 and 194 bottoms to see what they looked like. I think we're close. If I'm wrong and today was the bottom, at least I've already got $2.2 per share and another $2.3 on the way for those -225P's.
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Sold Calls are always short term gain even if you close them after one year.
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