SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Bit too early on both, but not afraid to loose anything on either one
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
@Yoona thanks for the head's up about the tool. I signed up for a 15-day trial for $15.
They renamed the tool Spot GEX
What do you interpret from this (today's data)?
Spot GEX
Vanna
Vanna GEX
This one implies dealers support in the lower $180's region:
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SpeedyEddy
Active Member
NVDA and SMCI both on their way to trade 1 day's average volume within the first 1.5 to 2 hours. RSI 83-88...
(both building a bear flag on the minute chart)
(both building a bear flag on the minute chart)
IMHO is was a smash down to get those 200 calls managed. I took advantage and closed mine out for the week. Call walls are safe until there's a weird and violent push down. I feel way less confident about 200 not getting passed this week. I know you guys say TSLA option income is low but when you're willing to let go of your shares around 200 you can make a ton of cash.
I think we go up from here so I'll sit on my cc writing hands until Tuesday.
EDIT: I was wrong....but still pocketed 80%
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dc_h
Active Member
Yes, I agree on the TSLA premiums. The risk reward has changed significantly. In the past low premiums have led to big runs up, but I don't see anything forcing mergins up, are short term changes in expected growth, which are needed to drive long any long term rise in the stock.
TSLA not even getting a small bounce today with the tech rally illustrates just how weak it has become. It’s laughable that Tesla is not considered enough of a tech company but unfortunately for shareholders, all of Tesla’s tech initiatives are many quarters away from being realized in the earnings.
I’m bullish on V12 progress and the progress it will make this year but Tesla’s stubbornness when it comes to their pricing model is killing adoption rates. They’re making it so FSD essentially needs to be perfect Level 5 in order for customers to be willing to pay $12k or $200 monthly. If they would just lower prices for the rest of 2024 especially on the monthly subscription rate, I think adoption rate would start an S curve and then as FSD reaches level 5 consistency, raise prices, especially the monthly price.
I fully understand Tesla might want FSD to get to a certain level of polish before really trying to make it mass appeal since you don’t want people to have a bad first experience or have negative publicity. They also might have other internal reasons. I’m simply pointing out that if Tesla (or should I say Tesla shareholders )wants to get that premium tech valuation in the next 3 quarters, that’s their path to it. There’s really nothing else that Tesla has that can force the narrative change on Wall St
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how crazy is it? smci 6Δ 1dte gives me more income than tsla 6Δ 7dte
If I understand the instructions correctly, SpotGEX here shows that dealers are selling (pushes prices down) as we move toward $195.
@Yoona is this correct? Powerful tool indeed if true. We can guesstimate TSLA won't get past $195 today without tons of effort/catalyst.
See minute 04:15.
1) As price moves toward the red bar, dealers will be selling into the move which will make it more difficult to get above that level.
2) As it nears a green bar then dealers will be buying, supporting and boosting share price. And the size of the bar shows the strength of the action (big red=strong selling into; big green=strong buying into; converse for small).
@Yoona is this correct? Powerful tool indeed if true. We can guesstimate TSLA won't get past $195 today without tons of effort/catalyst.
See minute 04:15.
1) As price moves toward the red bar, dealers will be selling into the move which will make it more difficult to get above that level.
2) As it nears a green bar then dealers will be buying, supporting and boosting share price. And the size of the bar shows the strength of the action (big red=strong selling into; big green=strong buying into; converse for small).
@Yoona
UPDATE:
New spot GEX refresh shows red bar at $195 receding and green bars increasing above it, this implies we'll get past $195 soon and move higher nicely, and some brakes at $205 area. Let's see if this indeed happens as a test:
GEX/VEX profile also updated showing dealer support increasing over $200:
UPDATE:
New spot GEX refresh shows red bar at $195 receding and green bars increasing above it, this implies we'll get past $195 soon and move higher nicely, and some brakes at $205 area. Let's see if this indeed happens as a test:
GEX/VEX profile also updated showing dealer support increasing over $200:
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Smci up 140+ and NVDA up 100+, give TSLA 10% of that is all we asking too much ?
Spread the loves Jenson
Seeing some sign of recovery…
We hit a low of 191 - hope that the low enough recoil dl003 say is needed for a move upward.
Spread the loves Jenson
Seeing some sign of recovery…
We hit a low of 191 - hope that the low enough recoil dl003 say is needed for a move upward.
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Possibly I missed it, but I've seen your long-term data showing 6 delta is "safe" for TSLA, is there similar data on SMCI?
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Oopsy, where the heck is this sudden move coming from? Guess I gotta roll if this does not turn back to normal validation-levels very soon. I smell a bit of a burn. As long as I hold I will not experience so much, but this could be a SMCI Waterloo moment for me. Of course I'll keep you posted, in good AND in bad times.
[Edit] large party is pumping, I hope the dump will be soon [/edit]
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thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Dog was too scared too revisit the butterfly strategy for NVDA. Congrat dl003 and those that got in on the Long.
NVDA up 105
SMCI up near 200
TSLA about to turn green
NVDA up 105
SMCI up near 200
TSLA about to turn green
I didn't like the price action on SMIC so I closed them at $1.30 and swapped them for a few more contacts of $1100/1130 at $1.1 for tomorrow. 8 delta now.
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I went (was .05) now .03 delta BPS and (was .08) now .07 delta BCS , 40 wide IC , still reads about 97% chance of profit for 1.30 before SP went over 900 ... seems reasonably safe. Keep in mind that liquidity is an issue, wide ask/bid on most strikes.
EDIT: As you can see from price actions, it would make sense to stay .05 or less on the BCS side.
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