The potential impact of the Tesla Semi is hard to describe to those without a background understanding of the trucking industry. It's huge, just huge. First off, the truck industry is small, a few million units are on the road. Of those 90% are local routes meaning they are home for dinner or breakfast. Tesla Semi competes in that space, local rigs. The range is more than adequate for those jobs. The performance, if delivered as described, is superior for many users. Fuel costs are a huge driver for truckers- they can spend $300-500 a day for diesel.
So we have a small industry with an outsize impact from each single unit produced. Fuel costs goes from almost a dollar a mile to $0.10 per mile. The trucks are not more expensive than ICE trucks. The synergy with Megapack installations and other energy products is huge. Unit sales in the industry are usually less than 200k per year, sometimes much less. So the 50k/year run rate will take out 50/200 (10% being long haul) of the total US fleet. That would be far more of the market than we have in the managed to replace in over a decade of EV production focused on retail cars. Each year having an impact similar to removing over 2mln automobiles.
The Semi is the killer save the earth, create unit synergy with Tesla Energy, huge scale potential business product. I think the CT will be successful but frankly I fear it will be a 3rd or 4th car for many and will in fact due little to reduce global warming. To save the earth and make money- the Tesla Semi.
There are risks and issues= reliability is huge and Tesla has to do far more trouble shooting with a class 8 truck than a car. If a car breaks someone is late for dinner. If a truck breaks it can not only kill others but supply chains are disrupted and people who make money managing logistics notice. They need to work and work mostly flawlessly. So the first clients will all be beta testers. That knowledge incorporated into build processes before the main assembly plant is completed next year. Very cautious and well done. It will be 2026 before we really see Semi hitting it's stride but as soon as orders open back up we'll buy 2.
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