Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[vgrinshpun]

It is rumored Elon will be in China before the end of March (6 days) anyone have confirmation of this? Also, anyone have confirmation on the 'spring break' trip cross country with his family? Spring break for his children week before or after Easter?

It was not confirmed by TM, but I would not call it a rumor. As I've posted (Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014 - Page 288) the latest report on it was in Bejing-based Economic Observer. There were also quite a few sources reporting on the planned late March trip to China back in January.

Elon also mentioned about British delivery of the first RHD version of Model S going to a high profile person and his plan to deliver it personally in ... March.

Looks like we might have an interesting end of March and beginning of April - trip to China with stop-over in London, followed by the family cross-country trip in April.

 

[GravityPull]

All this good news, and not a word from Elon about it. Where is Elon? We still haven't seen the blog post he mentioned is coming, and he hasn't made any posts since his last blog post, aside from two very short replies. As someone pointed out, for the past week, Tesla has basically just been following the market, due to a lack of news. I think it also has something to do with the missing blog post that Elon said would be published last week.

Anyone else feel like Elon is about to release a deluge of positive news?

On an aside, take a look at the job postings on the Tesla website. Tesla is looking to hire a ton of new employees in California, Norway, China, Germany, and The Netherlands. Something big is coming.

Does anyone have a snapshot of Tesla Job posting on Tesla Motors website from previous months, quarters? Hoping drinkerofkoolaid is onto something.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

I think there are conflicting items here. End of March China trip, Spring Break roadtrip and SoaceX important launch. I doubt he'll miss the launch so he's busy this weekend so likely no China trip either and timezone wise doubt he could make it after the launch to china (unless he uses the rocket).

So not all of it is goig to happen. More likely Elon's trip to China is next weekend if it is...

 

[772]

One analyst move on TSLA this morning:

UBS initiated Neutral with PT $230

 

[vgrinshpun]

Looking into it, there is a slight scheduling conflict here. Aside from the issue of time zones, the launch will be followed by docking to international space station on the second of April, so it appears that Chinese trip with stopover in London might be pushed back.

SpaceX Resets Space Station Launch with Revolutionary Rocket Legs and Robonaut Legs to March 30

 

[Cankooo1]

Actually I am not sure that the China trip was really on the table at all. The source was only WantChinaTimes (which is English website) I have checked, not really deeply but I was unable to find Chinese source to confirm it.
And Beijing based Economic observer does not seems like official source for me. it observed criticism for Tesla which is far from the truth at the moment in my observations.
Original article or information about the source were not added.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Actually I am not sure that the China trip was really on the table at all. The source was only WantChinaTimes (which is English website) I have checked, not really deeply but I was unable to find Chinese source to confirm it.
And Beijing based Economic observer does not seems like official source for me. it observed criticism for Tesla which is far from the truth at the moment in my observations.
Original article or information about the source were not added.

Elon's trip to China in March was widely reported by multiple sources back in January; information came from the man himself, during the Bloomberg interview:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ossible-top-market-for-tesla-beyond-model-s-1

 

[Cankooo1]

I may have missed it and I didn't saw any confirmation from Chinese side.

 

[tslafan123]

I think there are conflicting items here. End of March China trip, Spring Break roadtrip and SoaceX important launch. I doubt he'll miss the launch so he's busy this weekend so likely no China trip either and timezone wise doubt he could make it after the launch to china (unless he uses the rocket).

So not all of it is goig to happen. More likely Elon's trip to China is next weekend if it is...

What about UK trip, to give keys to the prince? When was that supposed to happen?

Oh wait, we are also waiting on a climate blog to debunk that Bloomberg article.

Somebody please clone Elon!

 

[Muskol]

What about UK trip, to give keys to the prince? When was that supposed to happen?

Oh wait, we are also waiting on a climate blog to debunk that Bloomberg article.

Somebody please clone Elon!

He's got 5 of them, they're just not grown up yet!

 

[hileyms]

Rumour is that Elon will be in UK end of April for 1st handover but only rumour

 

[Twiddler]

He's got 5 of them, they're just not grown up yet!

Exciting, but they are hybrids, just sayin

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Maybe Elon's planning another world tour and media blitz?

- - - Updated - - -

Did someone at Deutsch Bank make a big typo or is this report regarding a downgrade not accurate? Websites are reporting Deutsch bank downgraded TSLA from $1.83 to $1.13. That is impossible for a few reasons. Also, wasn't their prior target was $200? Anyone have this supposed report?

Deutsche Bank Downgrades Tesla Motors to Hold (TSLA) | WKRB News
Tesla Motors Price Target Cut to $1.13 (TSLA) | WKRB News

Did this report of a downgrade to $1.13 really originate from The Mideast Times, a Tehran based "freelance journalist corporation" that barely existed until four months ago?

Stock Analysts Price Target Changes for March, 26th (AKAM, AMTD, BBRY, CCL.L, CHMI, CLF, CODI, EV, EVR, EXEL) - Mideast Time

 

[Bgarret]

One analyst move on TSLA this morning:

UBS initiated Neutral with PT $230

The most visible and talked about stock in a long time and UBS is just starting coverage??? Have they been asleep?

I would take their analysis and apply a discount based on their timing coming to the table - I would give UBS analysts a price target of a nickel.

 

[eepic]

Yes, that's one way to look at it. Another way to look at it was that the price on 4/10/13 of $41.86 (from my example) was a depressed price due to the the large 30.7M short position. In other words, without the large short position the stock should have been higher since the large short position is basically an extra 30M shares that are sold and added to the available shares.

So, in the 6 weeks (from my example) when shorts covered 12M shares sold short that removed 12M shares from being available and increased scarcity of shares. Add to that the increase in buying demand from new buyers wanting to buy into the stock and you've got a lot of upward pressure.

Short squeezes can have various forms. They could spike and then drop. They could spike, drop a bit and then go up again. They could spike, consolidate and then go up. Most of the times a "squeeze" is used in a loose way to signify a scramble of people buying the stock pushing the stock price upward. High short interest can add to this squeeze effect as you have more people who are needing to cover (ie., buy stock to close their short position) when the stock unexpectedly keeps rising.

One thing to note folks - since Tesla is part of some indices like the NASDAQ-100, some part of the short will be synthetic shorts put on by index fund (ETF) market makers, and not a speculative short. That said, I think it would be a small part of the short interest at these levels.

 

[Twiddler]

Sooooo.... A double bottom or temporary reprieve from the pain to follow? Thoughts?

 

[FluxCap]

Sooooo.... A double bottom or temporary reprieve from the pain to follow? Thoughts?

We will continue to track the NASDAQ in lockstep until we have any kind of news from Elon. That's my theory.

 

[bhuwan]

We will continue to track the NASDAQ in lockstep until we have any kind of news from Elon. That's my theory.

Are you getting in?

 

[The Blue Owl]

Sooooo.... A double bottom or temporary reprieve from the pain to follow? Thoughts?

It seems that TSLA is behaving like a sailing ship. With no wind (news), it just drifts aimlessly with the general current (NASDAQ). I wouldn't try to draw a conclusion based on TSLA technicals alone, because it doesn't appear that it's driven by those technicals.

So I keep hoping for the windy days to return, since there is a backlog of news out there waiting to get out. For the long term, absent negative market news (Putin, the Fed, etc.) I'm very comfortable. It's the short term calls that I got into last week that are hurting right now.

On edit: what FluxCap said.

 

[Twiddler]

Still, 20% decline over a lack of news? Really??