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Well, you can make your own charts pretty easily folks. Thinkorswim is what many of us use and it's truly awesome (free with TD Ameritrade account), but there are free web sites out there as well.
I'm NOT a Technical Analysis kind of guy, but I drew some arbitrary trendlines in here for illustration. The Moving average plots are accurate, however:
I'm NOT a Technical Analysis kind of guy, but I drew some arbitrary trendlines in here for illustration. The Moving average plots are accurate, however:
Ha! I watch these charts all day in my Thinkorswim feed and keep the moving averages plotted, but I generally don't do trendlines
.I mean, we should be at $5000 a share in a few years if we stay in the second "channel," right? Because you know, extrapolation never fails!
Charts are as good as technical analysis. If either one of them worked even 55% of the time, then someone would write an app that would make him the richest man in the world.
Still fun to look at charts though.
| 05/23/14 | Sold to Close | TSLA CallTsla Jun 06 2014 220.00 Call | TSLA Jun 06 2014 220.00 Call | $1.82 | ||||
| 05/21/14 | Bought to Open | TSLA CallTsla Jun 06 2014 220.00 Call | TSLA Jun 06 2014 220.00 Call | $1.03 |
What I saw today was a lot of selling pressure with an up market. It was low volume but I'm just not sure what will happen Tuesday if it's a down market with the same selling going on.
If there is a decent sell off I plan on grabbing some Jun 13 230 calls for a discount. If there isn't then I decide what to do Wednesday.
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anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Nice that it held to the close too. Hopefully the there will be a steady upwards trend as good news continues to trickle out. The massive $20-30 moves are fun to watch but they are matched by equally dramatic falls.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Hi folks, this is my first post. I've been reading these forums for over 6 months and have been a shareholder since it was at $54.
JB left a trove of hints in this article,http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Tesla-CTO-on-Energy-Storage-We-Should-All-Be-Thinking-Bigger I'd be interested in people's thoughts.
I noticed he said that Li-Ion technology would be dominant for another 5 to 10 years, suggesting something would replace it. Coincidentally the gigafactory will reach full capacity in 5 to 7 years. Could this be a hint that Tesla will lead with a new technology? JB claims we're not thinking big enough.
There is also info on a 400 kWh battery for industrial use, with pictures! JB thinks the stationary market will grow more quickly than the EV market.
Any other nuggets? Cheers, James
JB left a trove of hints in this article,http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Tesla-CTO-on-Energy-Storage-We-Should-All-Be-Thinking-Bigger I'd be interested in people's thoughts.
I noticed he said that Li-Ion technology would be dominant for another 5 to 10 years, suggesting something would replace it. Coincidentally the gigafactory will reach full capacity in 5 to 7 years. Could this be a hint that Tesla will lead with a new technology? JB claims we're not thinking big enough.
There is also info on a 400 kWh battery for industrial use, with pictures! JB thinks the stationary market will grow more quickly than the EV market.
Any other nuggets? Cheers, James
jhm
Well-Known Member
Also suggestive are his comments about the rate of progress in battery technology. A doubling of performance in ten years with no recent plateau, a 40% increase of energy density in 5 years from Roadster to the Model S. If this rate holds up, he could be hinting at another 40% increase 5 years post introduction of the Model S, specifically 2017 when the gigafactory opens. Could this really be?
I've noticed that Tesla has a tendency to signal to faithful investors, dropping hints before making more overt announcements. Could this be going on right now? If they've got a substantially new battery tech to unveil, after consistently saying that the 30% cost savings of the gigafactory required no new technology, then this could be a really big deal. The stock price is primed to explode on this sort of news.
Please somebody talk me down.
This last week many deliveries were placed on hold while Tesla investigated a quality issue from what I gather a pretty large number of cars, this had me concerned because nobody knew what the problem was, but I was just browsing the Tesla Motors forums & it looks like all cars that were placed on hold have now been released & are now being readied for delivery, I plan to go Leap shopping Tuesday morning.
My Tesla - on hold by QC/Engineering, not getting delivery and left in the dark | Forums | Tesla Motors
My Tesla - on hold by QC/Engineering, not getting delivery and left in the dark | Forums | Tesla Motors
Zzzz...
Member
Well, there are two technologies that could be ready in time for gigafactory. First one would be lithium sulfur. Potentially much cheaper cells, and they could be more energy dense too. But probably too risky to invest into - commercial production of li-sulfur just started last year, and those first generation li-sulfur cells are not too impressive.
Second tech - composite silicon anode for li-ion. This is no brainer, might help to get to 400 Wh/kg specific energy on a cell level. Very little risk, only anode material production involved. But it would probably do nothing to the price of kWh, or might even increase production costs. While potentially decreasing cell longevity.
I do not think any other battery tech could be ready for large scale production by 2017. And Mask/JB comments hint very strongly toward Tesla producing NCA li-ion cells in the gigafactory.
We are going to wipe the floor with these guys. They keep this up and their shareholders will be left holding a company in bankruptcy protection within the decade or sooner.
Fiat Chrysler CEO Says 'I Hope You Don't Buy' Electric Cars | The Daily Caller
Fiat Chrysler CEO Says 'I Hope You Don't Buy' Electric Cars | The Daily Caller
Agreed. Similar thoughts regarding Toyota/Honda turning to FCell. Other than Nissan and some hybrids, looks like Tesla is going it alone for a while. Not what Elon hoped for, but good for TSLA investors for a while. I think EM is right, going to take a competitive wiping of the floor as you say to turn the industry.
You are both right and wrong here. I'll talk you down.
So, here's the thing. Yes, you are completely right, there will be a doubling of battery technology in the next ten years, and a 40% (or something) increase by the time the gigafactory opens. This is most assuredly going to happen. This is why Tesla keeps saying they'll have a 30% cost reduction, and why Elon even says he thinks they can probably do better. I think they will. I think 30% is a conservative estimate.
However, this isn't actually big news. For the last 30 years or more, battery technology has been improving at between 5-14% per year (depends on who you ask, I usually quote 7-10%). Tesla has known this since the start, and has said it on many occasions, and rested their entire business plan on it. That's the point of going expensive car -> less expensive car -> even less expensive car. Because they knew battery tech would get better and cheaper, steadily, over time.
So this isn't any sort of secret signal, it's just an acknowledgement of trends which Tesla has acknowledged many times before. Now, it certainly can be true that we, as investors, can understand this before the rest of wall street does, or while wall street is skeptical and thinks that Tesla's claims are coming out of nowhere because they don't understand technology. But this isn't a special hint of some secret plan Tesla has, it's just JB reminding everyone that this technology stuff is real and the curves are easy to extrapolate. Unlike the above discussion about charting, these are things which *can* be extrapolated pretty reliably ;-)
I don't believe this has anything to do with a new battery technology, but hey, it might. However, battery technology does not come in "breakthroughs," neither does almost any other technology. The reason you hear about breakthroughs is that people will find some new idea, say "hey, in theory this could make things twice as good from what they are today!," then they'll spend 10 years refining the technology, scaling it, reducing cost, marketing it, etc. until it finally reaches consumer tech, and at that point it doesn't seem so revolutionary anymore because the improvements of the intervening 10 years have all been happening all along....which in the end averages out to 7-10% improvement per year. Same thing happens with all other sorts of technology, just with different curves of improvement. Batteries have one of the slower curves, but it still *is* a steady curve, which cannot be said for some other things. Note, also, that when you compare this to the cost curve of automotive companies - steady 3% rises per year in costs due to labor etc., and spiky but average 3% rise of gas prices - we end up looking even better over here. The confluence of these curves leads to the inevitability of electric vehicles. The same thing is happening in other things, as well, notably solar power.
Here's a couple random articles talking about batteries: Here Comes Electric Propulsion | Power content from Electronic Design
Expensive batteries are holding back electric cars. Can that change?
They are most interesting because of the graphs in them showing trends of density/cost. At the bottom of the wapo one, and figure 4 on the electronicdesign one.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Fango, good post. The Washington Post article is a little amusing, because the amount that TSLA is paying for $/KWH is significantly less than the figures stated. Recall that Elon hung up on a reporter over battery cost reduction. My belief is that TSLA is already paying less than of $200 per KWH.
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NigelM
Recovering Member
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