Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[chickensevil]

Wow, unexpected strength in the face of what looked like a typical "Tesla Tuesday"! I saw $260 in after-hours trading. Posts in the Model X forum appear to indicate that Model X components have been produced, so it's probably only a matter of time before we see them driving around on the street... which will only boost the shares higher.

Don't know if you got a chance to read the 10Q but in it it had said that they had made the alpha car and was already testing it out. As opposed to two weeks ago when it was being talked in a future tense this was certainly talked in the present/past tense. I expect that we won't actually see it until they want us to, though. I mean there wasn't a whole lot of sight on the Model S alphas either.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Don't know if you got a chance to read the 10Q but in it it had said that they had made the alpha car and was already testing it out. As opposed to two weeks ago when it was being talked in a future tense this was certainly talked in the present/past tense. I expect that we won't actually see it until they want us to, though. I mean there wasn't a whole lot of sight on the Model S alphas either.

I actually hadn't had a chance to look at the 10Q, but you are correct: Tesla does talk about testing the Model X, in the present tense.

To quote from the 10Q (dated August 8, 2014): "We are in the design and development stages of Model X, having only just recently started driving functional versions of the Alpha prototype."

My guess is that they can start testing under the cover of the factory in Fremont, but sooner or later Tesla will have to start driving the prototypes on real roads:biggrin:

 

[chickensevil]

I actually hadn't had a chance to look at the 10Q, but you are correct: Tesla does talk about testing the Model X, in the present tense.

To quote from the 10Q (dated August 8, 2014): "We are in the design and development stages of Model X, having only just recently started driving functional versions of the Alpha prototype."

My guess is that they can start testing under the cover of the factory in Fremont, but sooner or later Tesla will have to start driving the prototypes on real roads:biggrin:

I figured, its why I pointed it out. The whole thing is worth a read because there are some other little tidbits in there that clarifies or extends some of the things mentioned on the earnings call.

And yeah, no doubt! I hope there are people out there waiting for it to come out the factory doors to take some photos!

 

[Robertj]

Current Chart

As tesla approaches new highs shorts are likely to start to panic

we could see a spurt to $ 280

 

[twan]

Tesla in pre-market trading is sniffing all time highs. Is today the day?

we could see a spurt to $ 280

That would be awesome. $280 is when I'll take some profits and wait for a lower re-entry.

 

[AlMc]

Tesla in pre-market trading is sniffing all time highs. Is today the day?



That would be awesome. $280 is when I'll take some profits and wait for a lower re-entry.

Big question....When will that happen? If we truly get the start of a big run up in the next day/week or two the short squeeze could rocket it past your $280. The technical people will have to tell us where the next resistance level lies. Personally, I believe if we break out as you indicated that the next real resistance level may be $300.

 

[InTheShadows]

Big question....When will that happen? If we truly get the start of a big run up in the next day/week or two the short squeeze could rocket it past your $280. The technical people will have to tell us where the next resistance level lies. Personally, I believe if we break out as you indicated that the next real resistance level may be $300.

If I remember correctly, last time we were breaking ath I asked that question and the response was there are no technicals because it's new territory and nothing applies.

 

[Johan]

$300 is just psychology. Also $320.95 will mean $40 Bn market cap for example.

Interesting read:
http://www.michiganjb.org/issues/62/text62b.pdf
(The Effect of Round Number Bias in U.S. and Chinese Stock Markets)

 

[chickensevil]

$300 is just psychology. Also $320.95 will mean $40 Bn market cap for example.

Yeah, you could see similar trends as we have pushed into the unknown in the past. Milestones are either based on shareprice or market cap. Just my opinion here on the psychology of humans.

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By the way looks like we opened at a decent price and the stock appears to be on a climb. Not sure if it will hold or not since you almost have to discount the first 30 minutes of trading.

Speaking of... why is it that Google seems to be one of the best at providing charting over... say... my brokerage accounts... Like both of the places I have used is always really slow to get rolling in the morning both in how often they update the price (seems almost delayed) and even updating the chart itself (won't show the new day's chart until about 30 minutes in, until then it continues to show yesterday's movement.) It's very annoying...

 

[Rifleman]

New ATH! 265.35, if only for a second.

 

[Causalien]

Probably fall back to delayed quotes when server are swamped. Most non finance professionals still trade only two times a day I believe. Start and end of Market.

 

[CyberDutchie]

New ATH! 265.35, if only for a second.

Yes, I noticed the ask volume spike at 265 exact, probably lots of people with limit sell orders at ATH, but it shot over 265 pretty quickly to set the new ATH, so must have been similar number of buy orders at the ATH as well.

 

[LST]

Speaking of... why is it that Google seems to be one of the best at providing charting over... say... my brokerage accounts... Like both of the places I have used is always really slow to get rolling in the morning both in how often they update the price (seems almost delayed) and even updating the chart itself (won't show the new day's chart until about 30 minutes in, until then it continues to show yesterday's movement.) It's very annoying...[/QUOTE]


I use the NASDAQ site , it's not delayed, but of course i can't draw any unicorns and cups without handles etc. ; )

OT: Volume is already quite high, it will indeed be very interesting to watch, as profits will be taken and shorts will cover at the same time. Based on the long term potential i'll hold till Gen 3 at least.

Happy investing

 

[Johan]

Posted this in the "Tracking short interest" thread some days ago but wanted to bring the thought up here now that we are sniffing the ATH and showing strength:

With regards to shorting perhaps we are going to see a transformation where the sum of all things is that shorts now actually give up and close their shorts for good being replaced by long investors. This is inevitable to happen sooner or later and I think we are seeing how the debate is now much more converging on the (great) future of Tesla and less on if Tesla will surive and on if the current price is justified.

 

[chickensevil]

I don't know, there are a lot of people who are foolishly short on the stock... a lot of people still don't feel that 100+ share price is justifiable. So it is likely that this won't end until there is some hard core TA that justifies this stock price today... not in 5 years or 2 years, but today. Otherwise they will continue to be short sighted and feel the price should bottom out at any moment.

Keep in mind that plenty of people still try to claim this is a giant bubble waiting to burst.

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It will happen eventually, but from your comment it seems like you think this change is imminent... I think if we hold this price for a year (unlikely) then things will finally catch up to fully justify this shareprice... but because Tesla isn't standing still, the stock is likely to be trailing the company (meaning more upside) and the shorts are likely to trail the stock (feeling it is grossly overvalued and should drop) for quite some time... at least until we get through this explosive growth phase.

 

[TSLAopt]

I don't know, there are a lot of people who are foolishly short on the stock... a lot of people still don't feel that 100+ share price is justifiable. So it is likely that this won't end until there is some hard core TA that justifies this stock price today... not in 5 years or 2 years, but today. Otherwise they will continue to be short sighted and feel the price should bottom out at any moment.

Keep in mind that plenty of people still try to claim this is a giant bubble waiting to burst.

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It will happen eventually, but from your comment it seems like you think this change is imminent... I think if we hold this price for a year (unlikely) then things will finally catch up to fully justify this shareprice... but because Tesla isn't standing still, the stock is likely to be trailing the company (meaning more upside) and the shorts are likely to trail the stock (feeling it is grossly overvalued and should drop) for quite some time... at least until we get through this explosive growth phase.

i think if we can shoot through to 266 or 267 then we will have a new mini short squeeze which will take us up another 10 points at least (maybe 20). That is just my gut feeling, but I'm not establishing any new positions on that gut feeling, just putting it out there for the record in the short term thread
exciting times!!

 

[chickensevil]

Well, we poked the high again, 265.64 now is the top and then it came back down. There is certainly some sell resistance happening... must be a lot of orders at that level where people felt burnt by the stock and just want to "break even"

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i think if we can shoot through to 266 or 267 then we will have a new mini short squeeze which will take us up another 10 points at least (maybe 20). That is just my gut feeling, but I'm not establishing any new positions on that gut feeling, just putting it out there for the record in the short term thread
exciting times!!

Yeah, we definately seem to need a clean break here to get us up over the mark and into new territory. I would agree if it goes over, it will likely make a run... the trick is getting it to actually go there.

 

[jhm]

Posted this in the "Tracking short interest" thread some days ago but wanted to bring the thought up here now that we are sniffing the ATH and showing strength:

With regards to shorting perhaps we are going to see a transformation where the sum of all things is that shorts now actually give up and close their shorts for good being replaced by long investors. This is inevitable to happen sooner or later and I think we are seeing how the debate is now much more converging on the (great) future of Tesla and less on if Tesla will surive and on if the current price is justified.

As one short licks his wounds, another licks his chops. These dogs will return to their vomit until they get sick and die.

 

[chickensevil]

Keep in mind there are so many people clinging to this image and they keep trying to "justify" the TA on the share price as too high by comparing it with this... and suggesting an imminent collapse.

just for kicks here is the TSLA chart

Twice now they had claimed that it "followed" the bubble chart, and twice now the market has determined otherwise... so we shall see. It is likely that they will still cling to that hope that it will collapse back down to sub 100 where it will be "normal" again...

 

[chickensevil]

Well looks like we lost our momentum for the moment coming back well into the low 263s... Hope it picks back up again! Come on TSLA! I believe in you!