Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Goldman Sachs just raised target to 185 and RBC raised to 220.00

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

this is a statement every bag holder has made... not wise.

aaaaaaaannnnddddd..................BLOCKED. Myusername was getting a bit much even for a reformed bear.

 

[Vitold]

well let's look at ford's Q3:

Deliveries: 1.5m
Rev: $33b
Pre-tax Net Profit: $1.1b
A/P: $22b
A/R: $45b

so what's an acceptable a/p level?... it's not that it's high... it's that it increased significantly in *this* quarter... the one where they just surprised with profits... this does not bode well for what should be sustainably expected.

premarket volume is currently picking up... and the SP is dropping... I think these numbers are being looked over with scrutiny.

Apples to oranges - Ford is not making battery storage, inverters, charging stations nor they are growing exponentially. Comparing AP or AR only makes sense across same businesses.

 

[MitchJi]

The bears are hoping we will get tired of Tesla if it doesn't pop enough this morning. That is their only hope. I will not be selling under any circumstance. A win is a win and the market will reward.

Luke Skywalker - the force is strong with this one
TSLA- the shorts and FUD are strong with this one

 

[TrendTrader007]

I would be happy if that were the case, but Wall Street sees Netflix as 1:1 relationship...More Subscribers=Good. From the conference call yesterday, you can tell they have NO IDEA what to make of Tesla. We look at Tesla and see Model S, X, & III, Tesla Energy, Gigafactory(ies), innovation, disruption - most of them look at Tesla and wonder if they should change the percentage in their discounted cash flow model out to 2025 by .5% because of ZEV or accounts receivable.

Curt Rentz has been good about interjecting about how Tesla and fast growing companies defy Technical Analysis because of the speed of their growth and innovation, and I think the same holds true (with exceptions) for analysts. They can't wrap their head around 50% yoy growth for a "car" company. I mean, I enjoy Stranger Things and Narcos as much as the next guy, but it seems like if you asked any of the Idiots from yesterday they would take the revenue of a new season of Stranger Things over the Model III any time - they can understand a TV show, monetize it, model it. All they can do with the Model III is talk about how it can't be built, can't be profitable, won't be able to use autonomous driving. This is a great opportunity for us, it seems like more people should "get" Tesla, but the level of ignorance and antipathy out there baffles me.

There has been some talk about autonomous driving, licensing tech to other companies and MBLY. I think Elon is pissed at his former supplier and his exchange with Jonas about being willing to share data with other car companies and to "wait for additional information that could be available at a product lunch (sic)," tips his hand at Tesla Tech as a product. This, goes along with his rhetoric about how preventing technology/autonomy from saving lives is morally reprehensible, then by extension of that logic, hoarding that technology is equllly reprehensible. Before the end of 2017, Tesla will announce a competitive driver assist/autonomous product, tested in the field, based on NVIDIA and their AI....and they will eat MBLY's lunch and should (but won't) suck up an additional $10 Billion market cap (MBLY's current valuation).

Extremely well stated. Your post says it all. Eventually Wall Street has no choice but to come to the same conclusion as us bulls except the SP will be markedly higher
Make no mistake TSLA is going up with or without Wall Street. There is too much institutional money out there and very few real life growth stories like Tesla

 

[myusername]

Apples to oranges - Ford is not making battery storage, inverters, charging stations nor they are growing exponentially. Comparing AP or AR only makes sense across same businesses.

there is nothing in this ER or on the call about Tesla Energy... i actually find that disconcerting... all you have to go on with it is pure speculation.

 

[Irishjugg]

I'm also interested in doing a Google hangout. Great quarter and Q4 looks like it may be even better.

Personally, I have been a little hung up on Elon's comment on the Tesla Network, specifically in regard to the majority of revenue going to the customer. I did a bit of math below trying to explain my thoughts for those interested. On one hand, it made me a feel a little better, but I still don't fully understand how Tesla can justify giving the majority of revenue for ride-sharing to customers. Apologies for excessive use of parentheticals.

---

It looks to me like UberX charges about $1.50 -$2.00 per mile. Anyone have the math that Julian did on the all-in cost an autonomous EV? I think it came out to something a bit under $0.10/mile? I don't think this factored in any cleaning or upkeep time, so perhaps a little aggressive.

So let's say Tesla Network charges $1.00/mile and Tesla takes $0.30/mile while the owner gets $0.70/mile. This would generate the owner $0.60/booked mile. Assuming the car books about two 5-mile trips per hour (avg. Uber trip looks to be 6.4 miles) and has to travel about the same distance to pickup the passenger, cost would be about $2.00 and revenue would be $10.00. Tesla gets $3.00, the owner gets $7.00 and profits $5.00. Say the car is in service mode on average 10 hours/day so it generates profit of $50/day. This would generate ~$18,000 per year in profit for the owner which would pay for the ~$45k vehicle in two and a half years. Over a 5 year investment period, that's a 15% annual return (plus a free car for 14 hours a day). The car would have 365,000 miles on it at this point, plus any owner miles. Still, Tesla also generates ~$9k (20% GM) on the initial sale of which maybe $2k-$3k make it to the bottom line. Then, over that 5 years, Tesla generates ($3.00 * 10 * 365 * 5) = $55,000 which GM% is probably 100% on, and maybe a 70% operating margin? So a Model 3 in this scenario would have a COGS of roughly $36k and Tesla will generate $100k in revenue for a GM% of 64% (minus any discount on the cost of capital over 5 years) with a whopping 40.5% operating margin (ok, I have to be wrong on this, right?? ) $45k with operating income of $2k, $55k with operating income of $38.5k. This would put operating expenses + COGS (are there any not included in Model 3 COGS?) of the Tesla Network at $1.6B/year for 500,000 cars, which I guess is the big question mark.

An owner only needs to generate $31.50/day to earn a 5% annual return over 5 years (and come on, a normal car depreciates 60%, or -17% annually, over 5 years) so with the variables above, Tesla could keep 48.5% of revenue and earn $6,750 more per car per year. On 500k cars, this is $3.4B/yr on the bottom line that Tesla is giving away to the owners if they only take 30%. It doesn't make sense to me to do that unless Tesla is demand constrained at that point. $3.4B/yr in Tesla's hands will accelerate sustainable energy more than $3.4B in the owners' hands.

I may make a spreadsheet that has these different assumptions as variables so we can all run some sensitivity analysis on them if people are interested. This is somewhat inconsequential now because if anything like either of these scenarios come to fruition, Tesla is going be one of the highest market cap companies in the world, but I would still like to understand the logic behind Elon's comments.

I'm off to dig into other threads that I am not fully caught up on as I would not be surprised to see this has already been discussed. Thanks for any replies.

Keep in mind, Elon isn't motivated by squeezing the most profit and margin out of everything he can at his companies. He isn't Comcast, he's a lot more altruistic than that at his core and it's part of his appeal.

My expectation is closer to 85/15 split owner to Tesla with a 100/0 split on rides for family and friends or basically the ability to make those free to friends and family.

Lastly I disagree on the 3.4B will accelerate things more than happy customers front. 3.4B just isn't a lot of money and the goodwill and pr and word of mouth that giving customers most of the pie will create will generate demand well in excess of the relatively small amount of revenue Tesla would get from jacking up their share.

If you talk to Uber drivers the number one complaint is Uber keeps raising their take. I'm pretty sure Elon if aware of that and wants to make sure those negative feelings aren't ever associated with Tesla.

 

[winfield100]

Also, remember, the goal isn't to make the most money possible, it's to change the world, and maybe this will change the world more or more quickly.

a slight change. It's Worlds (plural) you do remember the video of the BFR which ended with the -->terraforming<-- of Mars
(which will take a LOT of coin)

 

[Yggdrasill]

there is nothing in this ER or on the call about Tesla Energy... i actually find that disconcerting... all you have to go on with it is pure speculation.

If it's as you seem to think, and Tesla increased AP with financial finesse, why aren't you congratulating Tesla for working out deals with their suppliers where they get more favourable payment terms? Is it bad for Tesla to have an additional 600 million in cash?

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Goldman now says Q3 for equity raise. We have another year B4 a raise. Stock well over 300 by that time.

 

[myusername]

If it's as you seem to think, and Tesla increased AP with financial finesse, why aren't you congratulating Tesla for working out deals with their suppliers where they get more favourable payment terms? Is it bad for Tesla to have an additional 600 million in cash?

that's not really the point... the story in the positive headlines is... Tesla makes profits on increased sales... the story by those actually reviewing the numbers is... Tesla Auto was not profitable even after record sales and profits were achieved after ZEV sales and other factors (such as AP).

 

[Vitold]

there is nothing in this ER or on the call about Tesla Energy... i actually find that disconcerting... all you have to go on with it is pure speculation.

Just wait till Friday...

 

[Yggdrasill]

that's not really the point... the story in the positive headlines is... Tesla makes profits on increased sales... the story by those actually reviewing the numbers is... Tesla Auto was not profitable even after record sales and profits were achieved after ZEV sales and other factors (such as AP).

AP doesn't affect profitability. It only affects the free cash flow.

 

[sundaymorning]

Jobs in US market looks solid.

First-time jobless claims fall; people still receiving benefits drops to 16-year low

 

[Vitold]

that's not really the point... the story in the positive headlines is... Tesla makes profits on increased sales... the story by those actually reviewing the numbers is... Tesla Auto was not profitable even after record sales and profits were achieved after ZEV sales and other factors (such as AP).

So far negative stories I've read fail to account for (likely on purpose to fit their claims) Tesla's exponential growth.

 

[techmaven]

"What was accounts receivable?" -- was this rhetorical?... i mean you can look it up in 2 seconds.

accounts receivable is $326m... yes... up from $168m a year ago... but that is certainly not an offsetting factor to $2.3b in payable.

Well, we don't have the 10-Q yet. But Q2 had an elevated amount of work in progress and finished goods inventory, and a relatively low raw materials amount given the increase in production. From Q1 to Q2, the raw materials amount dropped by $70 million and basically they had a problem getting those vehicles delivered - finished goods inventory went up from $473 million to $755 million. So basically, AP increases were low in Q1 and Q2, as raw materials ordered were relatively low in comparison to the production increases. Now with production in full swing for the Model X, the increase in production means an increase in ordering raw materials... so AP should be at this level. QoQ production increases were 10%, 18% and then 39%. If you apply that to AP, you get $1.47 billion, then $1.74 billion, then $2.41 billion. So $2.3 billion is well within what is expected for that kind of production growth. As a result, this isn't a one off, we didn't pay the suppliers thing, just a normal expected dynamic of a growing business.

Once we look across 4 quarters or more, this likely becomes much clearer... it's one of the problems of seeing quarterly snapshots.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Cramer saying great things about Tesla this am.

 

[Irishjugg]

so... let's get this straight... they spent $250m on capex instead of $750m as expected... increased accounts payable to $2.3b by $600m... sold $140m in ZEV credits... and came out with $25m in GAAP net profit?

of course they don't need to raise capital "right now"... they didn't pay their bills and didn't invest what was expected into their growth. Q4 is going to even this all out... so it's pretty clear that they were still just setting up for a large cap raise shortly as was stated after Q2... at what appears to be the expense of the M3 timeline... as I questioned 2 weeks ago.

Why are you and everyone else pointing out AP ignoring increase in AR and such? You don't get to pretend only one happened to make the numbers look worse.

Also, I think they mentioned that a lot of AP was from newer and better terms with suppliers. I'm not sure how this is booked, but if these were for machining for m3 would it show up in capex, accts payable, or both?

 

[Crowded Mind]

Keep in mind, Elon isn't motivated by squeezing the most profit and margin out of everything he can at his companies. He isn't Comcast, he's a lot more altruistic than that at his core and it's part of his appeal.

My expectation is closer to 85/15 split owner to Tesla with a 100/0 split on rides for family and friends or basically the ability to make those free to friends and family.

Lastly I disagree on the 3.4B will accelerate things more than happy customers front. 3.4B just isn't a lot of money and the goodwill and pr and word of mouth that giving customers most of the pie will create will generate demand well in excess of the relatively small amount of revenue Tesla would get from jacking up their share.

If you talk to Uber drivers the number one complaint is Uber keeps raising their take. I'm pretty sure Elon if aware of that and wants to make sure those negative feelings aren't ever associated with Tesla.

I think you are misunderstanding my point. My second scenario is already extremely compelling to customers. Customer satisfaction will already be ridiculously high. So high that Tesla will not be able to meet demand. Giving away $3.4B a year provides no benefit if customer satisfaction is already way higher than with any competing product and Tesla can't produce enough to meet the additional demand it may create. If anything customer satisfaction will be *worse* because fleets will buy up every single car available.

By the way, $3.4B of pure profit every year is a HUGE amount of money.... It's not about greed, it's about optimizing the growth of sustainable energy.

 

[JBRR]

It’s More Than Clean Air—Electric Cars Could Save the US Billions
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