Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[TrendTrader007]

I think whatever analyst upgrades there are in the next couple days will be tempered due to lack of visibility caused by pending SCTY acquisition. Elon tried to clear things up with his words (ie., saying that SCTY will possibly be cash neutral next year), but skeptical finance-oriented analysts/investors want more than Elon's words at this point.

There is zero lack of visibility. Elon clearly stated in ER call as you stated above
TSLA is going up from here. Period.
If foolish analysts don't upgrade it they will miss an opportunity to get on board one of the hottest stocks of 2017 and beyond

 

[TrendTrader007]

Having listened to TSLA ER call three times over and read the transcript I'm extremely confident that TSLA SP is about to rise similar to NFLX
I can't predict day to day movements but this is precisely the time to load up on TSLA like crazy and never ever sell a single share
I'm putting my money exactly where my mouth is, buying even more at the open

 

[myusername]

so... let's get this straight... they spent $250m on capex instead of $750m as expected... increased accounts payable to $2.3b by $600m... sold $140m in ZEV credits... and came out with $25m in GAAP net profit?

of course they don't need to raise capital "right now"... they didn't pay their bills and didn't invest what was expected into their growth. Q4 is going to even this all out... so it's pretty clear that they were still just setting up for a large cap raise shortly as was stated after Q2... at what appears to be the expense of the M3 timeline... as I questioned 2 weeks ago.

 

[LST]

Unfortunately there is no "wrong" button . The timeline of M3 stays intact. Or is the ignored user telling us EM is plain lying at a CC ?

 

[NOLA_Mike]

so... let's get this straight... they spent $250m on capex instead of $750m as expected... increased accounts payable to $2.3b by $600m... sold $140m in ZEV credits... and came out with $25m in GAAP net profit?

of course they don't need to raise capital "right now"... they didn't pay their bills and didn't invest what was expected into their growth. Q4 is going to even this all out... so it's pretty clear that they were still just setting up for a large cap raise shortly as was stated after Q2... at what appears to be the expense of the M3 timeline... as I questioned 2 weeks ago.

What was accounts receivable? I know when heavily biased (negatively biased in your case) you have a tendency to leave out important details that don't support your bias but if you're going to include AP now in your "little analysis" then you should probably include AR as well, no?

Regardless, based on your negativity what is your next move? Double down on the Puts?

 

[TrendTrader007]

I really think that quite a few seasoned investors on this forum are not bullish enough given the breathtaking ER and the flawless execution by Tesla. This tells me that bull fatigue has set in and bears are too smug
All it means that TSLA is an accident waiting to happen on the Upside
I totally think that TSLA rises exponentially higher from right here
Just my opinion
All I can do is back it up with my own money

 

[myusername]

What was accounts receivable? I know when heavily biased (negatively biased in your case) you have a tendency to leave out important details that don't support your bias but if you're going to include AP now then you should include AR as well.

Regardless, based on your negativity what is your next move? Double down on the Puts?

"What was accounts receivable?" -- was this rhetorical?... i mean you can look it up in 2 seconds.

accounts receivable is $326m... yes... up from $168m a year ago... but that is certainly not an offsetting factor to $2.3b in payable.

 

[Yggdrasill]

so... let's get this straight... they spent $250m on capex instead of $750m as expected... increased accounts payable to $2.3b by $600m... sold $140m in ZEV credits... and came out with $25m in GAAP net profit?

of course they don't need to raise capital "right now"... they didn't pay their bills and didn't invest what was expected into their growth. Q4 is going to even this all out... so it's pretty clear that they were still just setting up for a large cap raise shortly as was stated after Q2... at what appears to be the expense of the M3 timeline... as I questioned 2 weeks ago.

A couple of comments:

- There are no indications Tesla will need to reduce accounts payable in Q4. If they can maintain a balance of 2.3 billion rather than 1.7 billion, good for them! That means that an eventual cap raise can be for 600 million dollars less.
- The information given by Tesla is that the Model 3 timeline is unaffected. As an investor I like the fact that Tesla appears to have overestimated the capex needs for the Model 3 plans. Much better to overestimate than to underestimate. The savings of 450 million dollars will likely come in handy when ramping from 500k units/year to 750k units/year and beyond.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

"What was accounts receivable?" -- was this rhetorical?... i mean you can look it up in 2 seconds.

accounts receivable is $326m... yes... up from $168m a year ago... but that is certainly not an offsetting factor to $2.3b in payable.

So, what is an acceptable level of AP to you? I don't remember you having any problem or mention of it prior to this release, so is $1.7B okay and not a red flag to you? Do you agree that with increased production will come an increase in AP without any change in payment terms/time?

 

[Gerardf]

Wanted to play with some numbers and was looking for some template to enter TSLA information in.

Ran into this one : http://www.gutenbergresearch.com/up.../tsla_cons-based_model__c101__10-26-2016.xlsx
From here : Tesla Motors Inc Model

Maybe also an interesting starting point for others, even yesterday's information is already in it. It looks quite detailed, DCF formulas in it..

P.S. It shows (IMHO) low numbers for TE, could very well reflect how the general markets values TE.
And for PowerPack it still uses 250 / kWh as pricing and low margins.

Cell phone made a dot post of supreme significance... .

Can happen. And the post DID proof your point.

 

[Johan]

"What was accounts receivable?" -- was this rhetorical?... i mean you can look it up in 2 seconds.

accounts receivable is $326m... yes... up from $168m a year ago... but that is certainly not an offsetting factor to $2.3b in payable.

Tesla is growing, and not in a linear fashion. What did you expect would happen with accounts payable when you're steadily growing production? At any given point in time, if you take a snapshot of the financials, of course they're going to have an increasing amount of outstanding payments to suppliers since the business is growing. This is kindergarden stuff. I can see that both you and Mark Spiegl have desperately locked on to this kind of nonsense. Shorts can no longer cast doubt on feasibility of the technology, on demand and other important fundamental concepts but now we're down to nit-picking. I'm bullish and I have noe fatigue in my bullishness.

 

[dennis]

so... let's get this straight... they spent $250m on capex instead of $750m as expected... increased accounts payable to $2.3b by $600m... sold $140m in ZEV credits... and came out with $25m in GAAP net profit?

of course they don't need to raise capital "right now"... they didn't pay their bills and didn't invest what was expected into their growth. Q4 is going to even this all out... so it's pretty clear that they were still just setting up for a large cap raise shortly as was stated after Q2... at what appears to be the expense of the M3 timeline... as I questioned 2 weeks ago.

I suggest you study the transcript of the CC - I'd be happy to point you to it on SeekingAlpha if you aren't familiar with that site.

On M3 capex they are getting deferred payment terms, are realizing ways to more effectively deploy capital, and have focused a lot of engineering resources to optimize the design of the production lines. Even with all this 2016 capex is only being reduced 20% vs. the original forecast.

On AP they increased production 65+% so of course they have increased purchases from suppliers by a comparable amount. They also stated they are getting better payment terms. There might be some additional window dressing by deferring some payables but most of it can be explained by the greatly increased production.

No one expected Tesla to be GAAP profitable in Q3, with or without ZEV credits. Especially with the "rampant discounting". They also have received additional lease capital lines that reduced capital requirements.

The material difference vs. 3 months ago is that Tesla doesn't need to raise capital in Q4 or even Q1. We should give some credit to Jason Wheeler for instilling much needed financial discipline and to Elon for supporting him.

 

[Bgarret]

Having listened to TSLA ER call three times over and read the transcript I'm extremely confident that TSLA SP is about to rise similar to NFLX
I can't predict day to day movements but this is precisely the time to load up on TSLA like crazy and never ever sell a single share
I'm putting my money exactly where my mouth is, buying even more at the open

I would be happy if that were the case, but Wall Street sees Netflix as 1:1 relationship...More Subscribers=Good. From the conference call yesterday, you can tell they have NO IDEA what to make of Tesla. We look at Tesla and see Model S, X, & III, Tesla Energy, Gigafactory(ies), innovation, disruption - most of them look at Tesla and wonder if they should change the percentage in their discounted cash flow model out to 2025 by .5% because of ZEV or accounts receivable.

Curt Rentz has been good about interjecting about how Tesla and fast growing companies defy Technical Analysis because of the speed of their growth and innovation, and I think the same holds true (with exceptions) for analysts. They can't wrap their head around 50% yoy growth for a "car" company. I mean, I enjoy Stranger Things and Narcos as much as the next guy, but it seems like if you asked any of the Idiots from yesterday they would take the revenue of a new season of Stranger Things over the Model III any time - they can understand a TV show, monetize it, model it. All they can do with the Model III is talk about how it can't be built, can't be profitable, won't be able to use autonomous driving. This is a great opportunity for us, it seems like more people should "get" Tesla, but the level of ignorance and antipathy out there baffles me.

There has been some talk about autonomous driving, licensing tech to other companies and MBLY. I think Elon is pissed at his former supplier and his exchange with Jonas about being willing to share data with other car companies and to "wait for additional information that could be available at a product lunch (sic)," tips his hand at Tesla Tech as a product. This, goes along with his rhetoric about how preventing technology/autonomy from saving lives is morally reprehensible, then by extension of that logic, hoarding that technology is equllly reprehensible. Before the end of 2017, Tesla will announce a competitive driver assist/autonomous product, tested in the field, based on NVIDIA and their AI....and they will eat MBLY's lunch and should (but won't) suck up an additional $10 Billion market cap (MBLY's current valuation).

 

[myusername]

So, what is an acceptable level of AP to you? I don't remember you having any problem or mention of it prior to this release, so is $1.7B okay and not a red flag to you? Do you agree that with increased production will come an increase in AP without any change in payment terms/time?

well let's look at ford's Q3:

Deliveries: 1.5m
Rev: $33b
Pre-tax Net Profit: $1.1b
A/P: $22b
A/R: $45b

so what's an acceptable a/p level?... it's not that it's high... it's that it increased significantly in *this* quarter... the one where they just surprised with profits... this does not bode well for what should be sustainably expected.

premarket volume is currently picking up... and the SP is dropping... I think these numbers are being looked over with scrutiny.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

These shorts are so smug. They all say "lay out more short" thinking this will stall any rally today. They make me sick. They can eat ****.

 

[Mike Smith]

This is pretty big news - pure profit for Tesla.

Quebec becomes latest market to adopt ZEV mandate after important push by Tesla

 

[Sancho]

As happy as I am with all the good news in this earnings report, I'm even more encouraged by the overall impression of a company that has now clearly matured. Costs are being controlled, the supply chain is being made more fail safe, cash is being better managed, projections are being met.

Methinks we are entering a golden period of a company that has both enormous growth potential and all the pieces in place to harness that potential.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

it's that it increased significantly in *this* quarter...

Yes, the quarter that production increased significantly.

You're grasping at straws to try and turn an overwhelmingly positive ER to a negative, IMO.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

The bears are hoping we will get tired of Tesla if it doesn't pop enough this morning. That is their only hope. I will not be selling under any circumstance. A win is a win and the market will reward.

 

[myusername]

The bears are hoping we will get tired of Tesla if it doesn't pop enough this morning. That is their only hope. I will not be selling under any circumstance. A win is a win and the market will reward.

this is a statement every bag holder has made... not wise.