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ev-enthusiast
Active Member
dc_h, I have some difficulty in understanding what you are saying.
I have seen fundamentals, TA and momentum turning ugly and thus I bought some puts.
I want to be honest here and disclose my positions, I think transparency is very important.
I wish everybody would post short term moves here in this thread!
About the objectiveness:
If you think that a person with a short position has to have a bias, then the exact same thing has to be valid for someone owning a long position.
Thus the only neutral people do not have any position at all.
That can't be true, can it?!
I am sure you read my posts in the past and you know that I try to be objective and try to accept the facts.
This thread here is about money only.
Other threads in this forum can be used for cheering.
And BTW I am still long term biggest bull here.
I just have to face the current price action and protect my money.
Makes no sense to lose all your money.
When Tesla bounces after earnings it will bounce hard. Either Tesla is going bankrupt this week or the stock will see a huge bounce. The stock is fumbling because it broke below technical points and is seeking a bottom. The stock is more oversold than it has ever been. Nothing has changed in the past few weeks.
stealthology
Member
Thanks for the post, Jesse. It looks like Tesla's P/S ratio is around 5 at the moment. What could be different about Tesla in regards to their P/S not dropping to 2 or 3 like Apple did? One non-company specific thing that could be different is that we don't actually enter a major bear market/recession.
The NASDAQ and TSLA have been -2% and -8% each day for long enough that I've now become numb and indifferent to it. It doesn't really matter to me in the long-term as I'm not selling (long) or buying (no funds) any time soon and the downtrend is largely unwarranted.
could be a big surprise as in the past as tm did a tiny profit. At that time it surged +25% or somthin. Elon Tweeted that
phigment
Member
we will see what happens. I think the investors need to see some assurance that things are running not so bad @ tesla. People dont have patience with tsla right now. Plus the shi..y macro market situation.
i must say i was shocked how quickly things can change in the stock market, even for a great stock like tesla. 2 weeks ago sp was doing fine, and i was thinking, when the model 3 is being shown in march, we will be headed too $300 in a short period of time. Then comes China again, and spits in to the soup.
The lessons of the story i learned: Never trust a stock (at least short or midterm) too much, no matter how good the prospects are (from the prospect of holding call options)
My only consolation is that 50% of my total investion was core shares, so they didnt get burn
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Looking at the whole market which has decent bounce later today, but what TSLA is doing? only less than $2 from the new low and $2.3 from 50% point of ATH ($245.7). The volume has been > 9M shares for both Friday and Monday, isn't it big compared to average 3-4M/day? TSLA broke 180 strong support (2014.5 low, 2015.3 low and Elon exercised options just over that) without bounce, model X production is still a question of when and how? This is the biggest pivot point for this GREAT downfall (otherwise macro should not push SP down below 180). TM/EM was definitely misleading investors, how come they are waiting for redesigned parts while claimed exponential ramp up one month ago? The model X crap will bring fundamental issues for Tesla in multiple folds:
1) TRUST: management is misleading, if not called lying, this fundamental integrity issue for investing a company;
2) Cash flow: model X was supposed to provide much needed cash for Tesla growth, but it's been put hold, so capital raise become more realistic in this difficult market;
3) Capital raise: model X was supposed to boost SP to over $300 and dilution of capital raise will be much smaller than doing it under $150;
4) Elon Musk margin call: Elon Musk borrowed hundreds of million dollars from investment bank with collateral of his TSLA holding to buy TSLA shares, at some point, he'll receive margin call if the downwards trend can't be stopped
5) Growth: with current macro, we can't expect much growth for model S, but if model X can't make up the 50% YoY growth gap, then the growth momentum will get questioned in upcoming ER. You know how picky is the market right now for high flyer stocks.
As many investors anticipated, positive model X reveal and production can bring TSLA the benefits of Trust, cash flow, momentum of SP and many more. But right now, we are in opposite side and the truth just got hide many times by TM management.
1) TRUST: management is misleading, if not called lying, this fundamental integrity issue for investing a company;
2) Cash flow: model X was supposed to provide much needed cash for Tesla growth, but it's been put hold, so capital raise become more realistic in this difficult market;
3) Capital raise: model X was supposed to boost SP to over $300 and dilution of capital raise will be much smaller than doing it under $150;
4) Elon Musk margin call: Elon Musk borrowed hundreds of million dollars from investment bank with collateral of his TSLA holding to buy TSLA shares, at some point, he'll receive margin call if the downwards trend can't be stopped
5) Growth: with current macro, we can't expect much growth for model S, but if model X can't make up the 50% YoY growth gap, then the growth momentum will get questioned in upcoming ER. You know how picky is the market right now for high flyer stocks.
As many investors anticipated, positive model X reveal and production can bring TSLA the benefits of Trust, cash flow, momentum of SP and many more. But right now, we are in opposite side and the truth just got hide many times by TM management.
Exactly, and the analysts who reported last week clearly don't have patience either to update their views on TSLA that they can't even wait one simple week to get the real facts to answer their burning questions, then update their views with something concrete.
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
chickensevil
Active Member
as difficult as it may be, if you could see the drop off the cliff coming all of us would have bought tons of puts. I think the separation here needs to be trying to remove the bias (which is tough for everyone) to actually call the direction of the market. I had someone ask me about attempting to strike out on their own with some investments back early January, and at that point we had enough information that I said, it would be best to wait to invest your money until whatever this macro thing is, is over. Give it a month and then you can throw some money out there, of which I directed them to look at funds and indexes until they maybe felt more confident in what they were doing.
All of us knew that the macro was going to cause turmoil, I think we all just weren't expecting the macro to go on as long as it has, nor for the manipulators to drive the price as low as it has. That being said, if I had the time, I totally would have traded as puts early Jan, watching the market every day for signs that it would actually turn around. As I don't have the time normally to watch it like a hawk, then that is why I haven't really put my money anywhere (I have also not been too vocal on the forums for a bit). That is until today, since there is not to likely be an end to this from a macro perspective, nor a TSLA perspective at least until the ER, I figured it would be best to strike out with a few puts. I'll look for a bottom after the 10th...
But, I feel it is important to understand to everyone else, the drop has nothing to do with anything that has changed within the company. There is no "hidden secret" that we are not aware of. The same issues that have been ongoing for months are the same issues today... and the latest statement from Elon was at the Paris interview when he said during Q2 they should be able to match production of the MX with the MS. Because he was reassuring reservation holders that their product was coming, and should be coming either during Q2 or Q3. I am reasonably confident that we should see a reiteration of that during the ER and hopefully that will help alleviate concerns over the ramp. I would also really like to see a legitimate estimate for production/deliveries of the MX in Q1. But honestly, if they reiterate Q1 FCF, then we can say *nothing has changed* the stock price is completely broken from reality at this point.
All of us knew that the macro was going to cause turmoil, I think we all just weren't expecting the macro to go on as long as it has, nor for the manipulators to drive the price as low as it has. That being said, if I had the time, I totally would have traded as puts early Jan, watching the market every day for signs that it would actually turn around. As I don't have the time normally to watch it like a hawk, then that is why I haven't really put my money anywhere (I have also not been too vocal on the forums for a bit). That is until today, since there is not to likely be an end to this from a macro perspective, nor a TSLA perspective at least until the ER, I figured it would be best to strike out with a few puts. I'll look for a bottom after the 10th...
But, I feel it is important to understand to everyone else, the drop has nothing to do with anything that has changed within the company. There is no "hidden secret" that we are not aware of. The same issues that have been ongoing for months are the same issues today... and the latest statement from Elon was at the Paris interview when he said during Q2 they should be able to match production of the MX with the MS. Because he was reassuring reservation holders that their product was coming, and should be coming either during Q2 or Q3. I am reasonably confident that we should see a reiteration of that during the ER and hopefully that will help alleviate concerns over the ramp. I would also really like to see a legitimate estimate for production/deliveries of the MX in Q1. But honestly, if they reiterate Q1 FCF, then we can say *nothing has changed* the stock price is completely broken from reality at this point.
Storage deals are being announced for 50-100MWh each. The market is there and served by LG Chem, Samsung SDI and others. Tesla has partnered with Georgia Power, for a 1MWh project, but I haven't read of anything bigger. Straubel was saying at one point, that half of gigafactory production was aimed at stationary storage. Maybe he meant predominantly retail (places like Africa, Germany, Hawaii). That would be 60-70 thousand Powerwalls, if no need for commercial sales. My concern is having a decent expectation of 12-month GF revenue. Given they haven't spent half the money yet, perhaps that is overblown too.
chickensevil
Active Member
If I was understanding the talks about this, they have suggested that they could build their entire GF production to just the TE line. So I am not surprised if half is guided in that direction. But that is also assuming 100% completed factory. While we don't know how much is truly completed at this point, it is certainly less than half the total size, so that is why I am saying right now it is a non-issue. They don't have capacity for either thing to run 100% (hence the rest of the building to be built) so none of the investment is really wasted on speculating the size of the TE market. Hence: Non-issue.
That being said they stated originally, way back in the day, before there was talks of expanding the factory to include additional capacity, that of the 50GWh completed packs output, 2/3rds of that would go to the Model 3, and 1/3 to stationary storage or other car manufacturers. Essentially what they have done is increase the size of the factory such that it is now 1/2 to go to the Model 3 and 1/2 to stationary. So that original 2/3rds (or around 33-35GWh of capacity) is still slated for the M3, they essentially have just increased the size of the factory by at least 16GWh in their plans.
I am 100% positive that their current factory size won't be able to accommodate 35GWh of finalized pack production, so if they are making packs today, and they can't put them in cars (because, you know... no M3 exists yet), then it would be a *waste of money* to just idle the plant until the M3 showed up on scene.
So if they can sell what is already able to be made, then they can get ahead on the ROI, and have that self fund further growth rather than it just collecting dust. As long as GM is greater than 0% this should translate into a good idea (since they haven't really done any marketing or SG&A on the TE side of the house), and if they can get to 15%GM this should translate to a decent amount of extra cash net. As long as it isn't a money sink to make the products, this is a good route for them to go until the end of 2017.
Hey, just let me preface by saying that I appreciate your posts although execution can be better (granted it could just be a language/internet tone perception issue). With that said you are just flat out wrong in regards to Elon Musk potentially getting a margin call. It was a separate thread and was locked. Keep in mind I don't know anybody's background here and I treat much of what everybody says as Armchair CEO's because all claim to know something. That and even though the market bounces, of all people you know better that things aren't one to one. Yes volume is absolutely above normal, but it's typical for each earnings cycle. It just happens, that's the way things have always been. Please see my points below because bias goes both ways.
1. Trust and truth. The burden of proof is on you here. Not entirely sure what fundamental integrity issue you are referring to. Please do not cite the falcon wing doors' supplier lawsuit. This has been beaten over the head so many times as to why it was brought about. In addition, delays with products just happen. It's just a question if the company can stay solvent while under development. It's not lying, it's business conditions.
2. Cash flow-- correct Model X was supposed to provide a bump in revenue. No capital raise is needed. The scenario you describe where a capital raise is needed is if the Model X production has been slowed to a complete halt. I'm sorry man, it's delusional to believe in an insane amount of deliveries but it's also delusional to believe that deliveries are zero. It's just factually incorrect. I know people with Model X. I saw Model X's this weekend. It's just the reality.
3. Capital raise-- point 2. This is just an issue of timing. The only forseeable scenario for a capital raise is if there is some enormous breakthrough that Tesla needs to absolutely throw money at to accelerate.
4. I can tell you for a fact that he won't get a margin call because he borrowed hundreds of millions of dollars in each round of capital raise via a private placement. There's a possibility of default but it is highly unlikely so long as Elon makes payments. The loans are also backed by all assets. So this is a non issue in what you are calling "THE GREAT DOWNFALL."
5. Why can't we expect much growth for Model S? I never understood this argument. You are in San Diego where Tesla's are probably camry's. This is not the case in my region. It is no where near saturated. People simply don't know what Tesla is yet. In a recent comparison by C&D the Model S' Autopilot suite just trumped everything on the market. Please tell me where it wanes.
chickensevil
Active Member
Ha! I love this one, because it always strikes me as funny when I see someone complain of this, and then see where they are posting from... CA... FL... Norway... Uhhh, you do realize that these markets are not indicative of the rest of the world, right? There are vast swaths of the US alone that is still completely untouched. I would love to see a state by state breakout per manufacturer of the major competitors of the MS... because I think it would truly show how much room Tesla has to grow in just the US alone.
The closest we can come is looking at individual nations in Europe and comparing them to their neighbors. If Norway and Denmark and the like are the gold standard, then countries like Germany, France, and Italy should do well eventually, they just need to get proper market penetration there. And we have seen a steady increase in Germany over time. I would imagine if we could see something like that for the US, you could likely estimate how much bigger their US numbers could actually get if/when they properly sell the car in all 50 states. This is why I think long term the MS could hit 100k a year or more globally.
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