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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Possibly not for a big run up. You are absolutely right that 30k Model 3 will mean they are sold at basically no gross profit. But it will be enough to show a credible path to profitable production soon. So it won't negatively affect the stock. However if they have no Model 3 deliveries at all in 2017, that's going to be a tough sell.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Even though many on the street seem to think there will be zero in 2017, not to mention those who think there will never be any at all?
larmor
Active Member
Regarding M3, still I do not understand why short term market cares about it. When GF is operational then M3 is profitable. Both are months to years away. Making M3 without gf or highly automated factory is only for testing and early adopters. Market will hammer Tesla till there is lower battery price and highly automated production, years away.
More important and more to short term, larger 100 battery, then ap 2.0, then larger battery in regular ms/x and possible upgrade now...
More important and more to short term, larger 100 battery, then ap 2.0, then larger battery in regular ms/x and possible upgrade now...
First there's the traditional DCF method to determine the value of the current stock price. The same delivery and margins but a year later would result in more discount to the current share price. Also I don't think any sensible human being would buy/hold for the long term TSLA at this price without believing Model 3 will be successful soon (as in a year or two), so depending on how big the delay may be, it could shake the faith of the people in this camp and affect stock price negatively.
dc_h
Active Member
Draining the swamp and building a pool. Members only.
Any thoughts on California lawmakers taking proactive countermeasures at the state level to counter anticipated Trump mayhem?
For example,
1) strengthen the ZEV credit criteria.
2) Impose a new carbon emission tax.
Etc..
3Victoria
Active Member
The dev costs should be depreciated across the entire production of cars, not the first one, nor the first 30k.
What's with all the negativity here? The first model 3s will be built with a line tweaked from the S/X line, except simpler because the car is simpler. Reports are they are on time. Pencils down happened as said. New sensor suite produced as expected. X production is hardly a comparison for reasons stated above. No other company has developed and produced like Tesla ... But all I am hearing is "What did they do for me yesterday?" ... Self-centred whining.
I think one of the challenges is that Tesla has decided to stay mum on Model 3 because too much attention on Model 3 has the potential to detract from S/X sales in the short term, which Tesla needs to fund the Model 3 production ramp.
The uncertainty/relative silence on Model 3 probably helps demand for S and X, but at the same time leaves plenty of room for skepticism on Model 3 progress for those who are so inclined. I don't happen to be one of them, but can see why, in an ideal world, people would want to see more tangible signs of progress.
This is a very different approach from the Model S launch where it was in Tesla's interest to keep the spotlight on their progress and keep Model S front and center in the public's mind leading up to its release.
Unless Tesla decides it wants to raise capital instead of self-fund, I doubt we'll get much more than a few nuggets on Model 3 here and there until Reveal Part 3 sometime this spring. Could be wrong but that's my operating assumption ....
GBleck
Member
The Toyota Yaris and Mini have center speedo units. I always assumed it was for right vs left drive simplicity but they do look to allow the driver to be a little farther forward. No reason you couldn't drive just fine with out a hud. Just color code the speedo for the speed limit of the area you are in. Simple enough to do as the car can read the signs.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Big time. I think that's highly unlikely before Q2.
That will not happen!
The first Model 3 full reveal will not happen, until production is either imminent, or already started, because they don't want to risk Osbourning S-X sales.
3Victoria
Active Member
How can one Osbourne S/X sales? ... The 3s are sold out, so an S/X buyer can buy one soon, or wait more than a year for a 3.
I expect a reveal end of March 17 ... Will show the 3's interior and also announce any shared advanced tech for the S/X at the same time.
3Victoria
Active Member
Sorry, by dev costs I meant design and build costs ... All of them should be applied to the total production run, not an arbitrary slice of it.
Who is whining? The frame of reference we have is missed self imposed deadlines.
Missing self imposed deadlines for the '3' are possible.
I hope they meet or beat these but the concerns are valid.
If they had hit every deadline but one and there was hand wringing for one miss then I would agree with your final sentence.
Tooling is amortized over each unit. Labor in some sense is as well but requires precise timing (i.e. if expecting 5k a week production and hired adequate personnel for that and did produced 5k a week, then all is good. But if only produced 2.5k a week due to other issues, then labor would be twice as it should be). Everything else is D&A over time, regardless of production run rate.
dc_h
Active Member
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