Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Cattledog]

Except for the need to show a blowout quarter or two I agree with your point about talking vs. timing of capital raise. Two blowout quarters would be the 3Q financials sometime in November. Way too long to wait to speed production ramp/ significantly expand production. One reasonably good quarter would suffice (Q2 report in August), especially since the Model 3 deposits have given them some room.

I vote this, which means they need to get Elon some help at the end of the QA/QC line so Model X production can get to 1,000/week exiting Q2, but hopefully back to 750/week at least very soon. I expect the Model S refresh has stoked some fires and if they come out with the teased P100D, Katie bar the door, a lot of current owners will get back in line. That likely needs to be revealed immediately to affect Q2. Probably a Q3/4 catalyst.

 

[MikeC]

Am I completely off to think in the contrarian way: some investment dollars that now flow out if AAPL will be looking for growth. Hello TSLA.

AAPL lost more than TSLA's entire market cap in after hours today. "Hello TSLA" is right.

 

[kenliles]

Yes. Confirmed folks. CONFIRMED.

MS "all-in" pack cost is less than $190/kWh

Also, Jeff said this LAST week. Apparently call was last week (possibly) or a different outlet. Regardless. It's confirmed.

Thanks Fred

With 30% GF and 8%/yr we're sub $100 before 2020.
And that's just battery tech.

Glacier meltdown transforming to ICE meltdown
Gotta love it

 

[Intl Professor]

I think it is safe to say they will accelerate the vehicle and battery factories expansion plans as much as they can, but I highly doubt they are as far gone that a capital raise now is necessary to not hold those plans back.

So given that with all positive news coming there is no reason to raise capital until after said news. The longer they wait though the bigger risk of macro and general market problems which add to risk. Second half I think is a safe bet, sometime in August or September.

You're probably right but most on this thread seem to focus on Tesla's need. Perhaps Musk has other issues in mind, possibility of rate rises? I think the FED will not raise them but yield on the 10 year treasuries is creeping up as some say inflation is. This may be the ideal time to borrow, as did Ford before the recent crash--or sell new shares.

 

[kenliles]

Am I completely off to think in the contrarian way: some investment dollars that now flow out if AAPL will be looking for growth. Hello TSLA.

I hope not. I made that very trade, trimming AAPL today for a TSLA add tomorrow.

 

[Irishjugg]

Tesla needs constant cash infusion to replenish its non-stop cash bleed of nearly half a billion each quarter. Do some research on how it spent the $2B raised via bonds in 2014 for the supposed GF. Only 14% built, and they had to raise another $750 million. FCF is a mirage. A good read from David Stockman on this "bonfire of vanities".
Tesla: Bonfire Of The Money Printers’ Vanities

Good luck with that.

I'll try, just once to help you. Tesla has started, extremely clearly, that their cash burn will slow massively for most of this year due to not spending on capex. Model S and X at steady state production is the reason.
Later this year they will start spending on major model 3 capex and the cash burn will go back up, however, Tesla revenue will be ~double what it was to start this year, so it will seem like effectively half the cash burn as it does now.

If you don't take the time to even glance at a quarterly report, then you deserve to lose that money. Personally, I don't think there's a chance in hell you are actually short shares or anything more than a poorly informed, but strongly convinced, incorrect bear.

 

[Intl Professor]

I was trying to talk him into it. Can't a rhino play with his food?

I thought you were vegetarian.

 

[The Blue Owl]

I thought you were vegetarian.

Judging by the quality of his arguments, I am.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

AAPL lost more than TSLA's entire market cap in after hours today. "Hello TSLA" is right.

Looks like AAPL lost between 45-50B in market cap post-earnings.

The trend line at Apple in general is not positive. The company is dependent on iPhone for 2/3s of its revenue, and their ASPs are going to come under increasing pressure as the smart phone market reaches maturity. I don't think the Apple Watch will save them from this.

Apple won't go under anytime soon. 50B in revenues and 10B+ in quarterly profits are still nothing to sneeze at, but future prospects are what many investors are looking for. Without a future plan for growth, AAPL is just another dividend stock. Investors hungry for growth will be considering TSLA if they don't already own some shares.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Keep in mind that the cost of a Model S/X pack is going to be different than the cost of a TE pack on a per kWh basis.

Model S/X use NCA cells and TE uses NMC cells, NMC has about 70% the energy density of NCA and BOM should be similar so I wouldn't be that surprised if TE cells are 30% more expensive than MS/X cells (on a per kWh basis).

If I was betting I'd bet on TE packs being about 18% higher than MS/X packs on a cost per kWh basis.

 

[techmaven]

Keep in mind that the cost of a Model S/X pack is going to be different than the cost of a TE pack on a per kWh basis.

Model S/X use NCA cells and TE uses NMC cells, NMC has about 70% the energy density of NCA and BOM should be similar so I wouldn't be that surprised if TE cells are 30% more expensive than MS/X cells (on a per kWh basis).

If I was betting I'd bet on TE packs being about 18% higher than MS/X packs on a cost per kWh basis.

My understanding is that PowerPack uses NCA. PowerWall (only version left) uses NMC.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

My understanding is that PowerPack uses NCA. PowerWall (only version left) uses NMC.

That would be very surprising to me, NMC is used for the greater cycle life, PowerPacks are destined for high-cycle applications.

Also note that one powerpack has 16 modules and is 100kwh, 100/16 is approximately 6.4, the capacity of a power wall. I'm quite certain that a powerwall is just a single module from a powerpack.

It's rare I can contribute to this thread as my financial acumen is eclipsed by the regulars, but I'm a battery pack engineer (for a serious but non-full-time job) and feel quite confident about the above statements.

 

[Dr ValueSeeker]

Why don't you look at your source material again, and maybe take notice of certain words such as "estimate" and "request a quote", and then ponder their meanings.

Thank you for confirming that both last year's tweet and the powerpack price estimation webpage are incorrect and useless. Tells a lot.
It's sad seeing you folks squealing when caught red handed.

 

[Curt Renz]

Thank you for confirming that both last year's tweet and the powerpack price estimation webpage are incorrect and useless. Tells a lot.
It's sad seeing you folks squealing when caught red handed.

There is nothing in your profile except location "Unknown". Is there something that you are trying to hide? Have you no pride?

 

[techmaven]

That would be very surprising to me, NMC is used for the greater cycle life, PowerPacks are destined for high-cycle applications.

Also note that one powerpack has 16 modules and is 100kwh, 100/16 is approximately 6.4, the capacity of a power wall. I'm quite certain that a powerwall is just a single module from a powerpack.

It's rare I can contribute to this thread as my financial acumen is eclipsed by the regulars, but I'm a battery pack engineer (for a serious but non-full-time job) and feel quite confident about the above statements.

I re-read the transcript... I believe the PowerPack is the high energy one using NCA:

Tesla Motors (TSLA) Earnings Report: Q1 2015 Conference Call Transcript

 

[techmaven]

Thank you for confirming that both last year's tweet and the powerpack price estimation webpage are incorrect and useless. Tells a lot.
It's sad seeing you folks squealing when caught red handed.

I doubt any TSLA shareholder is complaining that the company found out that they can charge a lot more money for their products and make more margin.

 

[EinSV]

There is nothing in your profile except location "Unknown". Is there something that you are trying to hide? Have you no pride?

He is the same individual who has posted 10 anti-Tesla articles on SA under the name "Valueseeker" (guess he hadn't received his doctorate yet). You get the gist from his posts here so I don't recommend giving him the clicks.

His main "contribution" to TMC is to spread FUD on basically any TMC forum that mentions Model X quality issues. For some reason, he neglects to mention his short position when complaining about how dastardly and irresponsible Tesla is and encouraging people not to buy one of those horrible, terrible Model Xs.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

I re-read the transcript... I believe the PowerPack is the high energy one using NCA:

Tesla Motors (TSLA) Earnings Report: Q1 2015 Conference Call Transcript

That does seem to suggest NCA, nevertheless I'd be surprised if it turned out to the case, greater than 2x cycle life is an easy trade off for a 30% hit to energy in the long term applications the powerpack is aimed at. Perhaps we'll find out on the May 4th call...

 

[techmaven]

That does seem to suggest NCA, nevertheless I'd be surprised if it turned out to the case, greater than 2x cycle life is an easy trade off for a 30% hit to energy in the long term applications the powerpack is aimed at. Perhaps we'll find out on the May 4th call...

For peaker plant replacement, the amount of total energy available for the $ is likely more of a concern especially if they do not end up using a full charge cycle each day. If they use a full charge cycle over 3 days, or usually have a low DoD but needs to have the capability of a big discharge, then NCA makes sense. Much like our cars, we usually drive 50-100 miles a day, but we need occasionally to drive 250 miles a charge. So NCA works out due to the low cost and high energy.

 

[Bgarret]

2 articles from Evan Niu of Motley Fool in one day....it's not that his articles are groundbreaking, but with all the poorly sources, inaccurate and downright misleading "journalism" going on, it is a breath of fresh air. Truly, the one-eyed man.

Virginia Car Dealers Incorrectly Think They Can Sell Teslas Profitably -- The Motley Fool