Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[AlMc]

I agree with Johan's list about the X.
I also agree with the poster that pointed out the nice squeeze going on over at SCTY....Many of the shorts like to short TSLA as well. I feel this is helping TSLA today....and if it continues...tomorrow.
I had sold all my TSLA leaps and calls when we hit $260...just stock now...core only...
I am buying a few short term calls despite their high IVs...a hunch only...
I still see a bad Q1ER but tempered by great CC...another interesting ER coming up...

 

[Chop110]

My take on the X is:
1) I'm happy I cancelled
2) the car should have had better overall reliability and build quality as compared to Model S, because it's the second mass produced Tesla model and they sure took their time with it
3) I'm still not clear where the X fits in to master plan. Andrea James asked about this on one of CCs and Elon basically answered that it wasn't a vital part of the plan, but that they wanted to build this exceptional car because they could. In retrospect they have themselves called hubris.
4) IMO the X serves the role as a bridge to Model 3, that couldn't come before 2017 due to battery tech/price and battery supply. The bridge is financial (revenue) and to keep Tesla in the front of people's (and investor's) minds as the leading auto maker. Preferably it should also further solidify Tesla technological superiority. In retrospect I wish they had gone with a slightly simpler design.
5) the secondary objective of the X is as a training and learning experience for Model 3. This may well turn out to be the silver lining to all the current troubles.

I agree that the Model X is a financial bridge to get us to the Model 3. All complexity aside, I suspect that demand for it will be strong, provided they can sort out production issues. It is after all, a magnificent piece of engineering.

Like you said, it will be a learning experience for the Model 3 and the rumored crossover version, the Model Y. Take the much ballyhooed falcon doors; Elon has hinted that we might see these on the Model Y. By then, they will hopefully have refined the basic design and consolidated dependable suppliers to make these a non-issue. Much like when the first touchscreen iphones came out and some critics berated the lack of tactile buttons, manufacturing complexity, and cost. Now touch screens on smart phones are common on even the lower end no contract phones. People just wanted the touch screens, whether for the wiz-bang, cool factor or versatility, and thus the industry got really good at it. I suspect something like this will occur for the Model X falcon doors.

 

[Chop110]

Crud, I should have jumped in at 242.

 

[larmor]

For short term and financial analysts, MX represents a market to be taken and provide huge revenues. Fixing parts which don't cost significant amts of $$ are not a big deal for a revenue generating product. What are boards thoughts on MX market comparison, I think it is aimed squarely at Cayenne. How did porsche revenues change with cayenne?

 

[Fallenone]

Just wondering, in 2013, how many issues early Model S were having compared to Model X now? Is it just Tesla is much more well-known and the community has grown times larger that the it is easier to hear quality issues in the early Model X?

 

[vgrinshpun]

According to the article in Clean Technica, there is an inside information from within Tesla, indicating that "“manufacturing of the Model X has ramped up significantly.” This could be responsible for the pop..

 

[Julian Cox]

Thesis update. Plausible trigger conditions coming into view.

What we are looking for now is a relatively poor Q1 and an Earnings Call that hopefully will be a clearing house for excuses and statements of working hard and not ready to talk about it.

Most importantly at this juncture we are looking for a delayed Gigafactory unveil and for the shorts to take up the cry of speculating over Model 3 delays as a result sufficient to jitter the market - might even see $180 again but can take whatever discount is offered. $220 is fine too.

If that happens - (don't over think the prices I wrote just focus on the sequence of events and directionality) - as seems reasonably likely then the Gigafactory Unveil will IMO mark the entry point for the trade I have been looking for. If that does not happen then nothing ventured and will keep looking.

Note that if this sequence plays out it probably represents a time shift vs my stated default entry of July 10th depending on how delayed the GF unveil is. The longer the delay within reason the better and more confident this outlook becomes. End of May some time in June, late June, early July increasingly perfect. If they rush the GF unveil for end of April then this is just talk and traders can have fun with a short term spike or a sell on the news or whatever happens. Same goes for any rushed capital raise this side of Q3.

 

[motobaleno]

For short term and financial analysts, MX represents a market to be taken and provide huge revenues. Fixing parts which don't cost significant amts of $$ are not a big deal for a revenue generating product. What are boards thoughts on MX market comparison, I think it is aimed squarely at Cayenne. How did porsche revenues change with cayenne?

revenues depend on margins: how much is the building cost of a luxury suv and X-over is well assessed for classical ICE but remains mostly an unknwon for EV.
My impression is that tesla is keeping its prices low...that's good for diffusion and marketing, not so good for revenues.

 

[Julian Cox]

According to the article in Clean Technica, there is an inside information from within Tesla, indicating that "“manufacturing of the Model X has ramped up significantly.” This could be responsible for the pop..

Shhhhh

 

[Hogfighter]

Nope. I don't think so.

#1. MX volumes have ramped. I've witnessed this here in OC and tesla's own statements.

#2. Guidance for 2016 is MS & MX "combined"

#3. TM reaffirmed 2016 two weeks ago...

Thanks, Fred. I appreciate the differing insight.

 

[BobSk]

A Wine Mogul Says Fidelity Cheated Him Out of Millions
Sorry this is not directly related to short term move. It's a worthwhile reading. It shows things are happening behind the scenes. Kind of explained how the short lending worked. In my opinion the real story is probably way more complex than what's stated.

 

[Hogfighter]

Just wondering, in 2013, how many issues early Model S were having compared to Model X now? Is it just Tesla is much more well-known and the community has grown times larger that the it is easier to hear quality issues in the early Model X?

The issues weren't nearly as severe as the X issues, from my vantage point. 12v batteries needed to be replaced, sunroof squeaks needed to be tweaked. Door handle issues weren't all that big of a thing.

The S began production in late June of 2012. The ramp happened about 6 months later.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Very surprised there has been almost 0 discussion about SolarCity having an executive compensation package that implies a potential $40 billion valuation. This would benefit Musk and Rive, and by definition Tesla.

 

[ibcs]

Just wondering, in 2013, how many issues early Model S were having compared to Model X now? Is it just Tesla is much more well-known and the community has grown times larger that the it is easier to hear quality issues in the early Model X?

Depends on who you ask and what vin #. I had Signature S #513 and it had severe issues that were always fixed. Tesla provided a loaner and picked the car up via flatbed and returned it to me with the repairs completed. I was never inconvenienced other than my neighbors that I was crazy with my Model S making so many trips to Columbus service center.

I overlooked them all, because it gave me insight to what Tesla was trying to accomplish and I was holding a boat load of stock that paid out like the lottery. My list would be shorter on what wasn't replaced, but as a stockholder I never published a single issue.

 

[austinEV]

Thesis update. Plausible trigger conditions coming into view.

What we are looking for now is a relatively poor Q1 and an Earnings Call that hopefully will be a clearing house for excuses and statements of working hard and not ready to talk about it.

Most importantly at this juncture we are looking for a delayed Gigafactory unveil and for the shorts to take up the cry of speculating over Model 3 delays as a result sufficient to jitter the market - might even see $180 again but can take whatever discount is offered. $220 is fine too.

If that happens - (don't over think the prices I wrote just focus on the sequence of events and directionality) - as seems reasonably likely then the Gigafactory Unveil will IMO mark the entry point for the trade I have been looking for. If that does not happen then nothing ventured and will keep looking.

Note that if this sequence plays out it probably represents a time shift vs my stated default entry of July 10th depending on how delayed the GF unveil is. The longer the delay within reason the better and more confident this outlook becomes. End of May some time in June, late June, early July increasingly perfect. If they rush the GF unveil for end of April then this is just talk and traders can have fun with a short term spike or a sell on the news or whatever happens. Same goes for any rushed capital raise this side of Q3.

Julian, why would you be spying July 10 as an entry point? That is a week after Q2 deliveries would be announced. I presume that those numbers will be good to great. I am looking at mid June as the last chance to get aboard.

 

[jesselivenomore]

Hello again guys. Audubon recently informed me that my prolonged ban was due to an error in the system when the site format switched. So no hard feelings. During my hiatus I still frequented this thread often, and I would just like to say that I appreciate very much all the nice things many people have said. I am especially grateful to those who tried to get the mod's attention about my situation, withholding judgement instead of assuming guilt. Even if it meant derailing the thread at times to the ire of many, they did not keep silent because things were not right. I'd like to think that I would do the same for other reputable members of the forum if it came to it, even if it meant breaking the rules a little. To the other members I'd like to apologize for the commotion that it resulted in, thankfully that is all over with. And lastly I'd like to thank Audubon for rectifying the situation swiftly. I still think the ship is kept a bit too tight in the investment threads - I understand the call for civility in other areas of the forum(for a more enjoyable user experience), but when people's hard earned money is at stake here, I believe prudence and good judgment should be valued above all, even if at times it comes across a bit harshly. But that is another matter unrelated here. Audubon was unaware of my situation and could have left them the way they were, I am not a longtime member or anyone special. But once he learned of it he proactively brought it to the admin's attention so that things could be fixed.

Sorry for the temporary derailment from this post. Let's get back to some short term TSLA price movement discussions. I actually have quite a bit on my mind about recent movements that might go counter to some of the views I've been reading here. So I'm going to get on about that now.

 

[Chop110]

Thesis update. Plaisible trigger conditions coming into view.

What we are looking for now is a relatively poor Q1 and an Earnings Call that hopefully will be a clearing house for excuses and statements of working hard and not ready to talk about it.

Most importantly at this juncture we are looking for a delayed Gigafactory unveil and for the shorts to take up the cry of speculating over Model 3 delays as a result sufficient to jitter the market - might even see $180 again but can take whatever discount is offered. $220 is fine too.

If that happens - (don't over think the prices I wrote just focus on the sequence of events and directionality) - as seems reasonably likely then the Gigafactory Unveil will IMO mark the entry point for the trade I have been looking for. If that does not happen then nothing ventured and will keep looking.

I am speculating here...

Looking at past history around earnings call time, the stock dipped from 230's after the ho-hum Q3 report of Nov 03 2015 to low 210's (Following Model X reveal), but then around mid November it trended up again.

For the Q4 earning call at the beginning of February, the stock had been on a downward tumble since the end of December, following the news of Model X production misses. Shortly after the call, it continued to tumble to the 140's but a week later the stock started its stellar trend up on excitement of the Model 3 reveal.

This is where we are now as we near the May 4th(?) earnings call. The stock peaked in the 260's for a week following the Model 3 reveal and the huge amount of preorders, but the last two weeks we have been hovering in the 250's. I believe the following negative news are already priced into the stock:

1. - missed Model X production in the first couple of months of Q1
2. - Quality issues with first batch Model X
3. - Long term production capability doubts

Now there is no argument about the suckage coming in the Q1 earnings call, no matter how Elon spins it. But most of the negative news have already been priced into the stock. The only other piece of negative news that may impact the stock is the slight delay of the gigafactory. If past history is an indicator, I predict the stock will dip following the Q1 earning call for a week but will then rebound again Mid-May on the positive news of improving Model X production and the opening of the Gigafactory in the "first half of 2016".

The question is, how low will it go? Because that is when most of us will want to jump in. I really don't see a one or even a two month delay in the opening of the Gigafactory dropping the stock that much. Especially not with the uptick in Model X production and the continuing number of Model 3 preorders. I am guessing no more than $220 around mid May.

The one remaining black horse is the rising price of lithium.

 

[Fallenone]

The issues weren't nearly as severe as the X issues, from my vantage point. 12v batteries needed to be replaced, sunroof squeaks needed to be tweaked. Door handle issues weren't all that big of a thing.

The S began production in late June of 2012. The ramp happened about 6 months later.

Thanks for the insight. I was thinking about the door handle issues mainly. Heard some stories of them not working and prevents the driver entering the car.

 

[Fallenone]

Depends on who you ask and what vin #. I had Signature S #513 and it had severe issues that were always fixed. Tesla provided a loaner and picked the car up via flatbed and returned it to me with the repairs completed. I was never inconvenienced other than my neighbors that I was crazy with my Model S making so many trips to Columbus service center.

I overlooked them all, because it gave me insight to what Tesla was trying to accomplish and I was holding a boat load of stock that paid out like the lottery. My list would be shorter on what wasn't replaced, but as a stockholder I never published a single issue.

So, pretty much like the current X situation? Inconsistency and they had great builds and cars plagued with issues at the same time?

 

[BobSk]

Hello again guys. Audubon recently informed me that my prolonged ban was due to an error in the system when the site format switched. So no hard feelings. During my hiatus I still frequented this thread often, and I would just like to say that I appreciate very much all the nice things many people have said. I am especially grateful to those who tried to get the mod's attention about my situation, withholding judgement instead of assuming guilt. Even if it meant derailing the thread at times to the ire of many, they did not keep silent because things were not right. I'd like to think that I would do the same for other reputable members of the forum if it came to it, even if it meant breaking the rules a little. To the other members I'd like to apologize for the commotion that it resulted in, thankfully that is all over with. And lastly I'd like to thank Audubon for rectifying the situation swiftly. I still think the ship is kept a bit too tight in the investment threads - I understand the call for civility in other areas of the forum(for a more enjoyable user experience), but when people's hard earned money is at stake here, I believe prudence and good judgment should be valued above all, even if at times it comes across a bit harshly. But that is another matter unrelated here. Audubon was unaware of my situation and could have left them the way they were, I am not a longtime member or anyone special. But once he learned of it he proactively brought it to the admin's attention so that things could be fixed.

Sorry for the temporary derailment from this post. Let's get back to some short term TSLA price movement discussions. I actually have quite a bit on my mind about recent movements that might go counter to some of the views I've been reading here. So I'm going to get on about that now.

Welcome back Jesse!