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Everything JB said make sense to me, including his predictions. That puts him in a special group which holds Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, Jeff Bezos, Charlie Munger, and Peter Lynch. In addition, JB is the top expert in battery and energy management. There is no counterpart for him at Apple.Haha
No disrespect towards JB Straubel intended. JB's closest counterpart at Apple would probably be Johny Srouji, the SVP in charge of Apple's custom silicon (like the A9 chip that powers the current generation of iOS devices), batteries, and other specialized hardware.
Sparky
Member
Hmmm. Ok then it must be this reason: http://www.teslasociety.com/exhibition.htm
"Nikola Tesla and George Westinghouse built the first hydro-electric power plant in 1895 in Niagara Falls and started the electrification of the world"
JB is closer to a Wos who didn't leave. he is great on the technical side and is now owning more and more of the management side too.Haha
No disrespect towards JB Straubel intended. JB's closest counterpart at Apple would probably be Johny Srouji, the SVP in charge of Apple's custom silicon (like the A9 chip that powers the current generation of iOS devices), batteries, and other specialized hardware.
Hi, vortexz!
I don't know how to do it in other countries (I am using Swedish online banks) but on Nasdaq there is this link Online Brokers - Best Online Stock Brokerages - NASDAQ.com . You may have to provide proof of identity and/or investment knowledge before you can be accepted, I suppose (never tried this path myself). Good luck!
How many of those 15 firms would see the same synergies as Tesla is seeing? I guess 0. Nobody shoulde be surprised to see those 15 (or whatever amount) walk away from a deal, and their walking away should not be seen as a sign that SolarCity is in trouble.
stealthology
Member
What if Tesla were to go ape *sugar* and have a fire sale, clearing out inventory cars (I think that's the right term) which were built and expensed in a previous quarter?
Well, the classic P90DL sales at $30k+ below sticker price would be part of that. The $5k off Model X inventory on the lots is also part of that. But they could cut further on the high-priced units while letting the large group of MS/MX 60s get built to custom orders. The discounting isn't going to help Gross Margins but does provide cash flow.
I think, at least for this quarter, delivery numbers will be as crucial as revenue and earnings. I think 24,000 is the number that makes me feel comfortable they will hit 50,000 for the 2nd half of 2016. I also think 24,000 will surprise Wall Street and lead to a 20%+ pop over current levels.
The last time they pushed deliveries this hard was Q4 of 2015 and Q1 of 2016 was somewhat soft. The issue here is that the company needs to get a stock sale done near or after the Q3 announcement. However, if they "crush it" in Q3, what's to do in Q4? Q3 could be 21k to 23k in sales but then Q4 needs to be 29k to 27k to meet guidance and the discounting activities of Q3 may need to repeat again in Q4. This article below came out last night and indicates there is something of a concern for deliveries and expense management (ie. work real hard to get the sales done - nothing about Q4 in the article, just making Q3 and finance goals happen). The P100DL is a request for those who can afford to upgrade to do so in Q3 and someone in Los Angeles is getting his approximately 9-10 days after confirm.
Musk Urges Tesla Workers to Cut Costs Ahead of Fundraising Round
Part of my hope to see 24k this quarter is that it asks for Q4 to be only 26k. I think rather than a consistent growth ramp we're going to see surges and then plateaus - I consider 24k and 26k on the same plateau, just as Q4 2015 - Q2 2016 have been on the same plateau (larger 'elevation' changes on the most recent plateau due to Model X production anomalies).
I know Elon said they could maybe do 150K Model S and X in the future if they pushed it, but I think a good 2017 would have 100K+ for Model S and X, real deliveries in Tesla Energy, rumblings on other parts of Master Plan 2 like trucks or driving services, and of course a great start to Model 3.
Never take away hope, it's the only thing some people have...
I know Elon said they could maybe do 150K Model S and X in the future if they pushed it, but I think a good 2017 would have 100K+ for Model S and X, real deliveries in Tesla Energy, rumblings on other parts of Master Plan 2 like trucks or driving services, and of course a great start to Model 3.
Never take away hope, it's the only thing some people have...
And for that letter, I don't know how it's good news to be excited about. Without the public knowing it, if they really got to profitability, it would be a big beat on expectations. But now it only be a meet. And if profitability in Q3 was not achieved, it becomes a disappointment instead of just meeting expectations.
Likewise, Elon said production had reached 2000 vehicles per week in June.
I should assume that held for the third qtr. ( assume nothing resonates)
That equates with about 24,000 units manufactured in the qtr.
Assume undelivered in 2nd qtr equals undelivered in third qtr.,
Otherwise go ahead and break your head justifying another figure.
Hence 24,000 seems plausible. However this is a very dynamic
Situation and with so many moving parts , stuff happens.
Stuff happens means we need a margin of safety for 24,000 to
Happen. If they can pull a few 2200 weeks to offset stuff
Maybe they can do it.
24,000 and above on a consistent basis covers a lot of mistakes
And delays and even the whole solarcity junk.
My calculations are including these fire sales. Still need 27k delivery. Unless they did wonders on GM in Q3, or somehow secretly sold a huge bunch of TE. Another case is they did not increase opex as guided. But I doubt it since they have been opening stores and buulding SC at a much higher rate
In my area, the cost savings, for at least the quarter, appears to be a delay in opening SCs in Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cherry Hill, NJ. The delays *could* be zoning but from what Hear ( *rumor *) I suspect it is to help cash flow. This is a tough decision as by delaying it might hurt deliveries in this area making Devon, PA push out a large number of vehicles.
A personal experience: While it is a small amount of $ individually, I turned in my first S under the GRV program (not as a trade but for cash). The car was inspected by a TM hired third party appraiser 10 days before turn in: Turn in date: August 17th.....Payment to me NOT made at the time of turn in but comes from HQ: After inquiring several times it appears that the check will be issued in 7 business days.
Yes, this is in this quarter, but I was the first at my local SC to turn in a car under the GRV, so I expect more over the next coming weeks that might very well have payment delayed into Q4.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Hi Al,
You were correct to sell before Q2 earnings. That's twice that you sold, LEAPS and I didn't and you were correct. Please continue to post when you decide to sell (hopefully I'll get it right eventually).
The delayed payment is interesting. But how does it affect profitability? It's not recorded until they send out the check? It does have direct impact on cash flow I think. But compared to capex, it's just a drop in the bucket. Btw, I really hope they do not delay capex to engineer FCF+ this quarter. That would jeopardize M3 too much.
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