Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MitchJi]

Tesla is causing a recession for ICE car makers. Model 3's waiting list will keep growing later this year; more people will join the waiting list after they see the cars on the street. In the not too distant future, the unveil of Tesla's big rig, pickup truck, mini bus, model Y will take away more sales from those ICE makers.

I think this is just the beginning. By 2025, the majority new vehicle sales will be pure electric.

The only way I see that happening is if Tesla can rapidly scale production. Because there's not much likelihood of anyone else making that kind of impact.

 

[BobSk]

Hi all
I'm new to the forum
Can I ask how much a squeeze would typically bring to the SP, from your previous experience ?

Tesla had a major short squeeze started in 2013 ($30~$280). At the time the short ratio was like 50%, the market cap was very small, and shorts were very confident Tesla will fail. As Tesla went higher, those guys kept shorting more, long holders also kept buying because they saw what Tesla was turning into. In the end, lots of shorts got hurt.

Now the situation is different. The short ratio is much lower than 50%, more like 25%, also many shorts are aware of the potential upside of Tesla. The market cap is 10 times larger than in 2012~2013. I think the likelihood and the amplitude for a short squeeze is smaller compared to 2013. Some small squeeze 20~30% could still happen from time to time.

Personally I ignore the volatility, invest in Tesla for the next 10~15 years. I see a less than 5% chance to lose the money, more than 80% chance to get many fold gain. Whenever the stock dives, I add more shares. Then go make money get ready to add more shares. I don't use margin.

 

[Novice]

What l expect if this happens is between October and February the SP to hit between $220-$320.

Note:
Highly speculative.

Also if the AP information presented today is something that would tend to support the SP (substantial enhancements to existing cars, or an announcement that some existing MS-MX's will support full autonomy) that would also tend to support my theory.

Also hopefully apple pulling out of the scene hence affirming the supremacy of Tesla in the field of EV would also do wonders to the SP, which I note has been on the consistent decline . This in turn has led to a myriad of bears posting articles which are almost always negative . Wonder if those omnipresent articles would detract investors from putting their feet in

 

[TrendTrader007]

Tesla had a major short squeeze started in 2013 ($30~$280). At the time the short ratio was like 50%, the market cap was very small, and shorts were very confident Tesla will fail. As Tesla went higher, those guys kept shorting more, long holders also kept buying because they saw what Tesla was turning into. In the end, lots of shorts got hurt.

Now the situation is different. The short ratio is much lower than 50%, more like 25%, also many shorts are aware of the potential upside of Tesla. The market cap is 10 times larger than in 2012~2013. I think the likelihood and the amplitude for a short squeeze is smaller compared to 2013. Some small squeeze 20~30% could still happen from time to time.

Personally I ignore the volatility, invest in Tesla for the next 10~15 years. I see a less than 5% chance to lose the money, more than 80% chance to get many fold gain. Whenever the stock dives, I add more shares. Then go make money get ready to add more shares. I don't use margin.

Well said. This is probably the best way to make money in TSLA

 

[TrendTrader007]

I could be totally wrong and for all I know we could go down the tube next week along with the rest of the market but I have a strong feeling based on TSLA chart analysis that TSLA is about to make a turn around and go up big time starting this coming week. If I am wrong then we will have a big down week but if I am right then TSLA should shoot up big time anyday now
I am just playing probabilities here

 

[Novice]

I could be totally wrong and for all I know we could go down the tube next week along with the rest of the market but I have a strong feeling based on TSLA chart analysis that TSLA is about to make a turn around and go up big time starting this coming week. If I am wrong then we will have a big down week but if I am right then TSLA should shoot up big time anyday now
I am just playing probabilities here

The next support level seems to be at 188, if that is breached do you think it will hit the Feb lows at 140s ?

 

[EinSV]

Tesla had a major short squeeze started in 2013 ($30~$280). At the time the short ratio was like 50%, the market cap was very small, and shorts were very confident Tesla will fail. As Tesla went higher, those guys kept shorting more, long holders also kept buying because they saw what Tesla was turning into. In the end, lots of shorts got hurt.

Now the situation is different. The short ratio is much lower than 50%, more like 25%, also many shorts are aware of the potential upside of Tesla. The market cap is 10 times larger than in 2012~2013. I think the likelihood and the amplitude for a short squeeze is smaller compared to 2013. Some small squeeze 20~30% could still happen from time to time.

Personally I ignore the volatility, invest in Tesla for the next 10~15 years. I see a less than 5% chance to lose the money, more than 80% chance to get many fold gain. Whenever the stock dives, I add more shares. Then go make money get ready to add more shares. I don't use margin.

Great post Bob.

This has been an interesting year. Lots of ups and downs with the SP but if you ignore the noise and focus on the core business Tesla is having a blow-out year.

Stunningly successful M3 reveal, factory humming like never before after overcoming Model X snafus, GF about to start producing cells, Tesla announcing that it will triple planned GF capacity by 2020, industry leading Autopilot, etc.

After a rocky first couple months, it has been a year of overwhelmingly positive news on the ground. But the naysayers currently have control of the narrative. The fear they have been able to spread has created what I believe to be a vast disconnect between market emotions/sentiment and reality. IMO this creates an incredible buying opportunity so I've been loading up all year to hold long-term and will continue to do as cash becomes available.

 

[TrendTrader007]

The next support level seems to be at 188, if that is breached do you think it will hit the Feb lows at 140s ?

It's possible albeit unlikely. If the market tanks in the next few weeks then it's possible that TSLA could test the $150s or so. I think it's unlikely but I would not rule out the possibility in a bad market
Nasdaq looks toppy in the short term so anything is possible
I will keep my fingers crossed and hope it turns around from right here but if it does not that is fine too
I am shooting for long term capital gains here and not selling TSLA unless Elon Musk checks into a psychiatric facility or turns out to be an alien

 

[GoTslaGo]

It's possible albeit unlikely. If the market tanks in the next few weeks then it's possible that TSLA could test the $150s or so. I think it's unlikely but I would not rule out the possibility in a bad market
Nasdaq looks toppy in the short term so anything is possible
I will keep my fingers crossed and hope it turns around from right here but if it does not that is fine too
I am shooting for long term capital gains here and not selling TSLA unless Elon Musk checks into a psychiatric facility or turns out to be an alien

If musk turns out to be an alien, I'm definitely NOT selling!

 

[MitchJi]

Also hopefully apple pulling out of the scene hence affirming the supremacy of Tesla in the field of EV would also do wonders to the SP.

I disagree with both statements (affirming supremacy and effecting the SP).

 

[hobbes]

Electrek wrote:

Now Musk says that he will hold a press conference tomorrow (September 11) at 11am PDT (2pm EDT) and that the full blog post will go live on Tesla at 12pm PDT (3pm EDT). We should be able to report on Musk’s comments right after the blog post will go live.

So this sounds like it is a non-public call again? Does someone have any other info?

 

[Yggdrasill]

So this sounds like it is a non-public call again? Does someone have any other info?

I would be very surprised if the call was public. The journalists probably won't be allowed to reveal anything until after the blog post is up. The call is just Tesla's way to be able to answer any questions they have *before* they write ridiculous articles that completely miss the point.

 

[Intl Professor]

If musk turns out to be an alien, I'm definitely NOT selling!

I don't follow the technical analysis thread, but I'm sure from a technical standpoint he is an alien, but a friendly one. (Hope this is an excrement eating grin since I'm kind of slow about using the tools of the site.)

 

[hobbes]

I would be very surprised if the call was public. The journalists probably won't be allowed to reveal anything until after the blog post is up. The call is just Tesla's way to be able to answer any questions they have *before* they write ridiculous articles that completely miss the point.

Makes sense. On the other hand, interesting that with quarterly results it is just the other way round.

 

[TMSE]

OK so there is a difference between the sources of ownership reporting. 13G is for stockholders with 5%-20% ownership of the company. This filing is used here in the S-4 and 13G is updated annually and therefore doesn't reflect the most up to date information. The NASDAQ reported ownership that updates quarterly is using 13F, for institution investors with $100M or more under management.

I asked IR why they used 13G instead of 13F and will post back if received an answer.

Have you heard back from IR as to why they used 13G instead of 13F?

 

[Fallenone]

Have you heard back from IR as to why they used 13G instead of 13F?

Not a thing. And I don't expect to hear from them now.

 

[sunhelm]

Somene live tweeting the press conf..Vincent everts (@vincente) | Twitter

 

[hockeythug]

Yeah, pretty much as the leaks indicated. Radar data improvements and some added nagging features.

 

[Papafox]

Tesla Post is live now:

Upgrading Autopilot: Seeing the World in Radar

 

[SebastianR]

Wow, just wow. No idea if this is moving any share price. But man would I want my Audi to be updated like the Model S! Again, no clue about the stock but this is a HUGE step for the Autopilot and overall road safety. I don't care if Tesla is electric or not - just this alone shows how far ahead of the rest they are!