Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MitchJi]

I thought the same thing about f until I saw that video. I think it's for soccer moms too of course, but it's more for China. China is the biggest auto market, probably more important for Tesla than the US eventually, they need electric cars yesterday just for air quality reasons, and they tend to like flashy things like the falcon doors more than Americans.

Agree with not specifically for soccer moms, but I still think the contention that it was designed specifically for China is ridiculous. I believe it's clear that they intended to build the best possible SUV, regardless of the location of potential customers. If you listen to Franz describing the design process you might agree.

 

[Intl Professor]

I still think the contention that it was designed specifically for China is ridiculous.

The one feature sure to appeal to the Chinese willing to buy it is the operating room Hepa upgrade. If I could afford it I would buy too, but the air in China is a whole order of magnitude worse in most areas.

 

[Intl Professor]

That's my 2 cents without the ability to see everything.

Nice summary of the situation.

Yesterday in Bloomberg's weekly review of Bloomberg West, Emily Chang hosted with Cory Johnson an interview with Lynn Jurich, CEO of Sunrun. Despite some attempt to put down Tesla by Johnson, Emily interrupted and asked the guest "what do you think of the Tesla/SCTY merger?" "I think its great," was the answer and then she went on to explain the importance of batteries which were very positive. Then the ever-good Emily asked, "do you use Tesla batteries?" "Yes, among other suppliers." Not absolutely accurate quotes but I would stand by the meaning and sequence.

Earlier in the interview Jurich surprised me with her enthusiasm for the lease program which she says is 60% of the market and the industry is only a percent or two penetration into this $400 billion market!

I have no idea the standing of Sunrun or Jurich's cedibility. A+ for articulate. Sorry, no link, but you smart guys can find it if you want.

 

[MitchJi]

If we did have a larger team of tour members who were trained at what to look at, and compare notes to the last time we went privately, inside our own organization, without divulging anything to anyone, then we would be compliant with the rules of the tour, and yet organized analysis like that could easily give us a huge advantage of understanding. A higher resolution and rate of information would give us a better picture, even with similar treatment.

Great idea!

Maybe we should try to set up something similar to that.

 

[andrewt3000]

Nice summary of the situation.

Yesterday in Bloomberg's weekly review of Bloomberg West, Emily Chang hosted with Cory Johnson an interview with Lynn Jurich, CEO of Sunrun. Despite some attempt to put down Tesla by Johnson, Emily interrupted and asked the guest "what do you think of the Tesla/SCTY merger?" "I think its great," was the answer and then she went on to explain the importance of batteries which were very positive. Then the ever-good Emily asked, "do you use Tesla batteries?" "Yes, among other suppliers." Not absolutely accurate quotes but I would stand by the meaning and sequence.

Earlier in the interview Jurich surprised me with her enthusiasm for the lease program which she says is 60% of the market and the industry is only a percent or two penetration into this $400 billion market!

I have no idea the standing of Sunrun or Jurich's cedibility. A+ for articulate. Sorry, no link, but you smart guys can find it if you want.

Here is the video.... The Future of Rooftop Solar

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Here is the video.... The Future of Rooftop Solar

What a babe. Solar discussion nice as well.

 

[tander]

@tander: IIRC the TSLA stock for SCTY stock ratio is already set so not sure EM can buy it 'cheaper'. The market has rightly or wrongly discounted the SCTY SP creating an arbitrage situation. Based on the price it seems they have set at least a 25% or so likelihood that the merger may not go through.

I am also in the camp that whomever is driving the SCTY bus that one of those potholes is a sink hole that is about to swallow SCTY whole.

Yeah what I meant by cheaper is that I'm not sure if Tesla would have still instigated the merger if SCTY was 65 or whatever. In some ways, the lower SCTY's price, the better acquisition target it is, but that depends on if you see a pothole or a swallowing sinkhole.

 

[tander]

Agree with not specifically for soccer moms, but I still think the contention that it was designed specifically for China is ridiculous. I believe it's clear that they intended to build the best possible SUV, regardless of the location of potential customers. If you listen to Franz describing the design process you might agree.

Yeah I think you're right about building the best possible. But I think if they were going for 75% soccer moms 25% China, they would have skipped the falcon wing doors. My understanding is they really like bling in China.

 

[tander]

Nice summary of the situation.

Yesterday in Bloomberg's weekly review of Bloomberg West, Emily Chang hosted with Cory Johnson an interview with Lynn Jurich, CEO of Sunrun. Despite some attempt to put down Tesla by Johnson, Emily interrupted and asked the guest "what do you think of the Tesla/SCTY merger?" "I think its great," was the answer and then she went on to explain the importance of batteries which were very positive. Then the ever-good Emily asked, "do you use Tesla batteries?" "Yes, among other suppliers." Not absolutely accurate quotes but I would stand by the meaning and sequence.

Earlier in the interview Jurich surprised me with her enthusiasm for the lease program which she says is 60% of the market and the industry is only a percent or two penetration into this $400 billion market!

I have no idea the standing of Sunrun or Jurich's cedibility. A+ for articulate. Sorry, no link, but you smart guys can find it if you want.

Emily is great, Cory seems like he's got an ax to grind with Tesla. Will check out that vid, thanks.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

If you don't think Model X demand is lower than Model S, just go into any Tesla store (that displays both S/X) and ask the store employees what interest and demand is like for the Model X vs the Model S.

The store I go to usually have couple people looking at the S and groups of people looking at he X. I have no doubt in the US the MX can match the MS even for being more expensive. I understand interest doesn't translate to sales but it's a great start for having very low positive coverage.

 

[Intl Professor]

Emily is great, Cory seems like he's got an ax to grind with Tesla. Will check out that vid, thanks.

Thanks to AndrewT3000 for the video. This is a shortened version by Bloomberg. There was an earlier discussion in the summary rebroadcast yesterday where Jurich talked extensively and positively about growth possibilities and, as I said, positively about their leasing business and for the consumer as well. Also there is some quirk in the tax law she referred to which is favorable to businesses installing the panels.

 

[mrdoubleb]

The store I go to usually have couple people looking at the S and groups of people looking at he X. I have no doubt in the US the MX can match the MS even for being more expensive. I understand interest doesn't translate to sales but it's a great start for having very low positive coverage.

The X is a high margin halo product in a very popular market segment. Once these production issues clear from the books, margins will be up and it will do what it was designed to.

 

[mmd]

The law is called Regulation Fair Disclosure. Regulation Fair Disclosure - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia I am unclear about how it is enforced or what information qualifies as "material"... because it's clear that Tesla and other companies give big investors factory tours and other information that isn't available to the general investor.

Interesting that it comes up now. I brought up this issue with selective disclosure a while ago when someone put a triple smiley after a factory tour, saying he is going to buy more TSLA. The discussion was quickly deleted by some higher mod god. Public companies are supposed to disclose material information simultaneously to everyone. But who is really checking these? When investors become unhappy, these may come up.
Selective Disclosure and Insider Trading

The timing of the required public disclosure depends on whether the selective disclosure was intentional or non-intentional; for an intentional selective disclosure, the issuer must make public disclosure simultaneously; for a non-intentional disclosure, the issuer must make public disclosure promptly.

On the brighter side, the analysts with special access to management haven't done any better. Andrea's 12 month PT of $500 set around June of 2015 is one example. Investors who invested based on that must be not so happy right now.

 

[Matias]

Possible. On the cost control side I am seeing a delay near me of Service Center openings. Centers in Baltimore, Pittsburgh an Cherry Hill, NJ all delayed.


You could say this is zoning issues or cost saving...Pushing out to Q4 after Cap Raise.

I find it hard to believe, that big investors would be so stupid, that they would fall for this. After all, Elon himselt told "sell everything" and spend only absolute necessary. Everyone can see, that this is not sustainable way to do business.

 

[SuryaDham]

I find it hard to believe, that big investors would be so stupid, that they would fall for this. After all, Elon himselt told "sell everything" and spend only absolute necessary. Everyone can see, that this is not sustainable way to do business.

Wall street is very short sighted. If it wasn't the stock price would already be waay higher.

 

[Turing]

I find it hard to believe, that big investors would be so stupid, that they would fall for this. After all, Elon himselt told "sell everything" and spend only absolute necessary. Everyone can see, that this is not sustainable way to do business.

Fall for what? The market has been obsessively focusing on tesla cash burn to the point that arguments about deploying that capital towards growth and long term assets gets drown out with all the FUD noise. Seems reasonable given this context to have a quarter were you push deliveries and temp reduce some growth and spending to prove a point. Also the market doesn't seem to be giving credit to Tesla successfully (finally) ramping Model X. There was good reason to be fearful that MX was never going to successfully ramp and the SP took a major hit for that, they were in "production hell" for a long time, but it appears clearly now that they have come out the other end. So now Tesla has two successfully ramped flagship high margin cars.

 

[RobStark]

I find it hard to believe, that big investors would be so stupid, that they would fall for this. After all, Elon himselt told "sell everything" and spend only absolute necessary. Everyone can see, that this is not sustainable way to do business.

But it will prove the point that Tesla does not "lose $15k-$25k on every car sold." In effect that Tesla is dumping electric cars on the market to buy market share.

If Tesla grew at 3% per year and spent the same percentage of revenue on R&D as does Mazda or Jaguar Land Rover then Tesla would be profitable.

It is spending on "reckless" growth and on R&D as if it were a much bigger OEM that expenditures exceed revenue.

 

[Turing]

I'm thinking it would be really good if the recall took place later than earlier because that time delay would allow the shift from Tesla being on a downtrend to being on a uptrend to get more established before short sellers re-enter the picture. Once a nice uptrend is established, and with Q3 delivery numbers only two weeks away, these two developments provide some deterrence for short sellers to open new positions, even if the shares become available to do so.

From following on here it seems the recalls didn't have a huge effect on shares available to short, no? IB seemed to have shares available until just last friday. Fidelity seemed to have significant chunks available to short for most of the week? It seems like it raised cost to borrow tsla some and reduced supply a bit, but nothing major.

 

[Matias]

Interesting that it comes up now. I brought up this issue with selective disclosure a while ago when someone put a triple smiley after a factory tour, saying he is going to buy more TSLA. The discussion was quickly deleted by some higher mod god. Public companies are supposed to disclose material information simultaneously to everyone. But who is really checking these? When investors become unhappy, these may come up.
Selective Disclosure and Insider Trading


On the brighter side, the analysts with special access to management haven't done any better. Andrea's 12 month PT of $500 set around June of 2015 is one example. Investors who invested based on that must be not so happy right now.

IMHO you can't simultaneuosly believe that Elon is very ethical AND he gives big investors some material information (and they vote for merger because of that) which is not available to all investors.

I believe he follows SEC rules and big investors don't get any material information (from Tesla) which is not available to all investors.

 

[Runarbt]

IMHO you can't simultaneuosly believe that Elon is very ethical AND he gives big investors some material information (and they vote for merger because of that) which is not available to all investors.

I believe he follows SEC rules and big investors don't get any material information (from Tesla) which is not available to all investors.

I guess they get the same info, but the opportunity to ask questions and get it explained more I detail.