Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Way to go fellas. That's a lot of hard work being done at Fremont.
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dennis
Model S Plaid
From today's delivery press release: Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company's financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.
I interpret this to mean that RVG's have been discontinued for bank leasing partners. Otherwise it would have said "mix of leased vehicles".
EDIT: There is also this statement: "Finally, we note that starting in Q3, our quarterly financial releases will no longer include non-GAAP revenue and related financial metrics resulting from vehicles leased through our banking partners or that include resale value guarantees." Not sure if that means there are no more RVG's, or they won't be calling out the revenue coming back from the RVG's, or what.
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Mike Smith
Active Member
I love how Tesla set the Solarcity voting date in such a way that the shorts could fatten up for the slaughter.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Not going to happen! Disagree? Want to bet?!
Sorry but I'm tired of explaining why.
I'm disappointed with the low proportion of X.
TE will start to ramp by Q1 at the latest.
If the MS margins are still good it means that battery pack prices are lower than most of us expect. I hope someone here digs into this. I believe it's exciting.
Me too. My 26k production guess was very close. Huge miss on 31k deliveries though
. Either they can minimize that in Q4, by batching or production is outstripping their ability to deliver. That seems like a better problem (more easily resolved) to have.
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Tesla will get there. It's Apple in the transportation world, then times three. (energy generation+storage+vehicle+shared ride)That's 9,700% growth in deliveries over Q3 in 2012. The same growth rate would imply 2.4M deliveries in Q3 2020. 250k/quarter (1.0M/annum) should be a walk in the park!
Producing 22k in Q4 won't cut it. Because there's going to be another 5k in transit. Many here said we will see less than 4k in transit for this quarter because the ramp in q2 was at the end and steep. Reality is when you double production without scaling up delivery/service centers at the same magnitude, you're bound to have more in transit.
GM: potential upside... very little... potential downside... very little
TSLA: potential upside... very high... potential downside... very high
All Tesla needs to do now is grow to be the size of GM in 6 years... become the large
yes... drop the percent. sorry about that. it's what I actually meant... so either 0.6% of GM's quarterly sales or 0.006x GM's quarterly sales... that's what I meant.Wait, GM sells 333 million cars a year?
5,000 / 0.00006 * 4 = 333,333,333
By 2025, Tesla's market cap will surpass today's Apple.
Remember one of the vacation weeks is the last week of the year. That alone enables the reduction of the cars in transit by 2000-2500 cars.
I would estimate: 11 wk x 2300 cars/wk +5500 -3500 = 27300 deliveries in Q4
I expect no production in the last week of Q4, but deliveries will continue during that week, albeit with less predictability than usual because of people being away for Christmas. Therefore there should be a shrink to the backlog.
I think he meant the record date (Sep 23) as this would mark the point where everyone can return their shares to the shorting game.
GM's potential downside? look at the long term trend of Kodak, Blackberry and Nokia.
Tesla's potential upside is huge, in my view it's very likely to reach a market cap of several trillion dollars. The potential downside is VERY LITTLE. Why? because even if the worst happens, the company can be sold to deep pockets at very high valuation. Tesla has lots of ongoing projects with huge value. To me investing in Tesla is a no brainer. I don't see many no brainers in today's market. But you can keep shorting, it's aways great to have different opinions.
seriously???
In times of disruption being on the side of disruption is waaaay less risky in my book than being on the side of being disrupted....
So, good luck with your bet.
and you know what... screw all those numbers... the intent was the comparison. but now that we're reviewing the math... let me try to do this more correctly:
GM sold 9.8 million vehicles in 2015... that is 2.45 million cars per quarter... or 816k per month (I believe I was looking at US only numbers earlier)... or 27k per day... or roughly 1.1k per hour... for every hour of every day of the year in 2015.
which means... the 20k vs 25k number is equal to 4.5 hours of GM's delivery numbers... or (the correct percentage of quarterly sales):
0.2% of GM's quarterly sales (lower than the previous number)... it is more than likely that the extraordinary number being discussed here of 25k vs 20k or whatever... is far less than GM's waste.
Tesla has a target of 1m/yr by 2020... which still remains incredibly ambitious... there is no way Tesla will be outselling GM before the year 2030 as things currently stand.
sorry... that's how I'm looking at this. Tesla is valued at 2/3 GM... 3/4 BMW... and even it's loftiest incredibly high risk goals of 1m/yr by 2020 leave it at a fraction of the size of its peers.
just doesn't make sense.
you're kidding right?... do you realize how many auto companies have come and gone?... tech companies that were "disruptors" vanished?... then a handful of auto companies remain and they do for a century.
congrats to Tesla for meeting keeping on track with its annual guidance... but its by far riskiest days are shortly ahead.
You mean Ford. The rest have gone bankrupt and will do so again in the near future.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I'm trying to figure out how the market will respond to the deliveries. I think that the results will be a modest bump in the SP. I also think that this is a prelude to gaap profits, which I think will cause a bigger bump. Hopefully right after (or before) the TE V2 introduction and (I hope) GF Cell production announcement.
Please can we stop wasting bandwidth explaining why 2 + 2 equals 4? Why Tesla is a better investment than GM?
Please can we stop wasting bandwidth explaining why 2 + 2 equals 4? Why Tesla is a better investment than GM?
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I think GAAP profitability will be priced in before it is announced, over the next few days. Most analysts will do the math. The Tesla Energy/Solar City announcment later this month should propel the SP for both even higher. (And eliminate the TSLA/SCTY arbitage.)
@ myusername. You keep mentioning how many cars GM sells vs Tesla. Do you not understand that the number you sell is less important than the profit margin on what you are selling? GM sells low price junk. Tesla sells $100,000 cars with excellent profit margins. How many $100,000 cars do the other auto makers sell? FEWER than Tesla! Tesla is #1 in the US in the luxury car market. And Tesla Energy will be even more profitable than the auto side of Tesla. I hope you aren't playing with real money, because you are going to go bankrupt.
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