Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Yggdrasill]

Remember, the first phase of the Gigafactory is supposed to deliver around 20 GWh. Tesla is looking at 20 times the capacity than Daimler.

How did you arrive at 20 GWh?

I've adjusted my thinking to that the first phase is something like 10 GWh, and the second phase is something like 30 GWh, because the NMC Tesla Energy cells have around 60% of the energy density of the NCA vehicle cells.

Actually, assuming the following:

- First phase is 14% of the total production capacity, second phase is 23%.
- 150 GWh total production
- 50/50-split between Tesla Energy and vehicle pack production
- NMC has 60% of energy density of NCA

I conclude that Tesla Energy will take up (75/0.6) / ((75/0.6)+75) = 62.5% of the factory. This means the first phase is 14% / 62.5% x 75 GWh = 16.8 GWh. And the second phase will be 23% / 37.5% x 75 GWh = 46 GWh.

I guess I will have to adjust my graphic.

 

[larmor]

I'm just thinking out loud here on realistic short term catalysts:

• Continued march up simply based on proving their production/delivery capability.
  
• Analysts chiming in this week
• 10/28 Solar Roof unveiling-- I'd be pleasantly surprised if this moves the needle much
• SCTY Merger finalized-- unless it gets lagged by SunRun lawsuit, I'd think it would help SP. Finalization in Nov?
• Model 3 Part 2 reveal-- not sure if Elon has talked about this recently, if I remember correctly, I don't think he sounded 100% confident it would happen by the end of the year.
• Rumor builds that Autopilot 2.0 hardware is now in cars, or announcement by Elon (unlikely for this yr?)
• Posting GAAP profit in Nov (or maybe even a tweet?!)-- I swear, if we don't hit this, I will feel fooled by Elon. I feel like he's been planting hints all over the place lately, including but not limited to:
  • The infamous Aug 29th letter to employees which hung GAAP profit right in our faces ('currently a couple points away') and mentioning wanting to throw a pie in the face of Wall St. Not too sure that helped the shorting situation.
  • After the e-mail, raising $300M to do direct leases which would greatly help GAAP profits (please correct me if I'm wrong) and started a 2-yr lease special which was popular
  • Seems to be in an upbeat mood in Public appearances (y-combinator, SpaceX)
  • Mentioning 'likely our best quarter in history' in employee e-mail which he immediately made public on Twitter just last week.
  • Liberal/Playful usage of Tweets
  • Minimizing the importance/impact of non-GAAP earnings beginning in Q3 (in the deliveries PR)

Help please?

TE and contracts for large scale industrial sites. More will come if utilities continue charging high rates at peak demand times.

 

[Yggdrasill]

How did you arrive at 20 GWh?

I've adjusted my thinking to that the first phase is something like 10 GWh, and the second phase is something like 30 GWh, because the NMC Tesla Energy cells have around 60% of the energy density of the NCA vehicle cells.

Actually, assuming the following:

- First phase is 14% of the total production capacity, second phase is 23%.
- 150 GWh total production
- 50/50-split between Tesla Energy and vehicle pack production
- NMC has 60% of energy density of NCA

I conclude that Tesla Energy will take up (75/0.6) / ((75/0.6)+75) = 62.5% of the factory. This means the first phase is 14% / 62.5% x 75 GWh = 16.8 GWh. And the second phase will be 23% / 37.5% x 75 GWh = 46 GWh.

I guess I will have to adjust my graphic.

Actually, I should account for the difference in pack assembly space. I'm thinking the vehicle pack production will take up less space, because Tesla Energy does a lot of work at the Gigafactory that is done at the Fremont factory for the vehicles.

Okay, so Tesla energy needs a 33/66 split between pack and cell production, whereas the vehicle pack production needs a 20/80-split

This means that the production area density of Tesla Energy actually ends up around 0,6 x (100 / (80/0,666)) = 0,5.

And plugging that into the previous calculations I conclude that Tesla Energy will take up (75/0.5) / ((75/0.5)+75) = 66.7% of the factory. This means the first phase is 14% / 66.7% x 75 GWh = 15.7 GWh. And the second phase will be 23% / 37.5% x 75 GWh = 51,8 GWh.

 

[techmaven]

How did you arrive at 20 GWh?
I've adjusted my thinking to that the first phase is something like 10 GWh, and the second phase is something like 30 GWh, because the NMC Tesla Energy cells have around 60% of the energy density of the NCA vehicle cells.

I don't believe there is enough time to bring the 2nd phase online for initial Model 3 production. Production cells assembled into battery packs for it have to be ready by July 1, 2017. Thus far, it will take Panasonic and Tesla just over 4 quarters to bring cell production online after the shell is complete. Assuming in the 2nd build they can cut a quarter out, that's still 3 quarters. It's already too late to meet the July 1 deadline and the shell is no where even close to ready. The first phase has to be able to meet initial Model 3 demand and some Tesla Energy. Just to meet the top end of Model 3 predicted volume for 2017, that first phase has to provide around 12 GWh. The original break down was 7 GWh per phase, so almost 3x that, I chose 20 GWh to round it off.

 

[EinSV]

I'm just thinking out loud here on realistic short term catalysts:

• Continued march up simply based on proving their production/delivery capability.
  
• Analysts chiming in this week
• 10/28 Solar Roof unveiling-- I'd be pleasantly surprised if this moves the needle much
• SCTY Merger finalized-- unless it gets lagged by SunRun lawsuit, I'd think it would help SP. Finalization in Nov?
• Model 3 Part 2 reveal-- not sure if Elon has talked about this recently, if I remember correctly, I don't think he sounded 100% confident it would happen by the end of the year.
• Rumor builds that Autopilot 2.0 hardware is now in cars, or announcement by Elon (unlikely for this yr?)
• Posting GAAP profit in Nov (or maybe even a tweet?!)-- I swear, if we don't hit this, I will feel fooled by Elon. I feel like he's been planting hints all over the place lately, including but not limited to:
  • The infamous Aug 29th letter to employees which hung GAAP profit right in our faces ('currently a couple points away') and mentioning wanting to throw a pie in the face of Wall St. Not too sure that helped the shorting situation.
  • After the e-mail, raising $300M to do direct leases which would greatly help GAAP profits (please correct me if I'm wrong) and started a 2-yr lease special which was popular
  • Seems to be in an upbeat mood in Public appearances (y-combinator, SpaceX)
  • Mentioning 'likely our best quarter in history' in employee e-mail which he immediately made public on Twitter just last week.
  • Liberal/Playful usage of Tweets
  • Minimizing the importance/impact of non-GAAP earnings beginning in Q3 (in the deliveries PR)

Help please?

A couple quick thoughts:

• IMO, the otherwise superfluous statement in a report on Q3 deliveries that Tesla will only use GAAP reporting in the future cannot be interpreted to mean anything other than GAAP profitability for Q3, especially in light of other recent developments,
• I have seen nothing to suggest there is a material risk that pending lawsuits will slow down the merger.
• I am not sure when Model 3 Reveal Part Deux will take place, but due to Osborning concerns I am not counting on it in 2016.
  • When it happens, I do expect a positive impact on SP due to a significant increase in pre-orders and (possibly) public availability of Beta prototypes as they did with the Model S. http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/201...sells-the-sizzle-and-maybe-a-car-or-two/?_r=0
• GF cell production beginning in November and, as @techmaven said, more TE announcements between now and year-end.
• Not sure Oct. 28 announcement will directly effect SP but may indirectly support the SP by reducing skittishness among investors who still have concerns about the merger.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I don't believe there is enough time to bring the 2nd phase online for initial Model 3 production. Production cells assembled into battery packs for it have to be ready by July 1, 2017. Thus far, it will take Panasonic and Tesla just over 4 quarters to bring cell production online after the shell is complete. Assuming in the 2nd build they can cut a quarter out, that's still 3 quarters. It's already too late to meet the July 1 deadline and the shell is no where even close to ready. The first phase has to be able to meet initial Model 3 demand and some Tesla Energy. Just to meet the top end of Model 3 predicted volume for 2017, that first phase has to provide around 12 GWh. The original break down was 7 GWh per phase, so almost 3x that, I chose 20 GWh to round it off.

I'm sure phase 2 will be sufficiently complete. Running phase one for both NMC and NCA is likely quite challenging. Phase one seems to be a single large cell production line, which means that you will need to intermittently switch between NCA and NMC. Switching chemistry means you need to clean the equipment thoroughly, as you don't want Manganese in your NCA cells, and you don't want Aluminium in your NMC cells. This means the cell production volume will be substantially less than the nameplate capacity.

Of course, it's not impossible to do, but it will be a PITA. Musk has stated previously that the Gigafactory isn't on the critical path for the Model 3, so I'm sure phase two will be ready. For one thing, I would look at how fast phase two is getting out of the ground - there's been explosive growth since the Gigafactory event. Another thing to remember is that a lot of the time that went into phase one was development (figuring out what you need) and then lead time for equipment. Most of the equipment for phase two may have been ordered months ago, as it's mostly copy/paste of phase one.

Of course, according to my math, Tesla won't need more than around half the cell production capacity of phase two very soon, so they may bring up the eastern production line a few months before the western production line.

 

[dennis]

I don't believe there is enough time to bring the 2nd phase online for initial Model 3 production. Production cells assembled into battery packs for it have to be ready by July 1, 2017.

At the Gigafactory Party, there were 4 sections enclosed by walls. Section A has TE module and cabinet assembly, Sections B &C have Panasonic cell production, and Section D had exterior walls but the concrete floor was yet to be poured. My guess is the module and pack assembly for Model 3 will go there, and there should be no problem having it ready for 7/1/17.

I'm sure phase 2 will be sufficiently complete. Running phase one for both NMC and NCA is likely quite challenging. Phase one seems to be a single large cell production line, which means that you will need to intermittently switch between NCA and NMC. Switching chemistry means you need to clean the equipment thoroughly, as you don't want Manganese in your NCA cells, and you don't want Aluminium in your NMC cells. This means the cell production volume will be substantially less than the nameplate capacity.

Sections B and C are both dedicated to Panasonic cell production. Quite possibly one is for TE cells and the other for TA cells.

 

[techmaven]

I'm sure phase 2 will be sufficiently complete. Running phase one for both NMC and NCA is likely quite challenging. Phase one seems to be a single large cell production line, which means that you will need to intermittently switch between NCA and NMC. Switching chemistry means you need to clean the equipment thoroughly, as you don't want Manganese in your NCA cells, and you don't want Aluminium in your NMC cells. This means the cell production volume will be substantially less than the nameplate capacity.

Of course, it's not impossible to do, but it will be a PITA. Musk has stated previously that the Gigafactory isn't on the critical path for the Model 3, so I'm sure phase two will be ready. For one thing, I would look at how fast phase two is getting out of the ground - there's been explosive growth since the Gigafactory event. Another thing to remember is that a lot of the time that went into phase one was development (figuring out what you need) and then lead time for equipment. Most of the equipment for phase two may have been ordered months ago, as it's mostly copy/paste of phase one.

Of course, according to my math, Tesla won't need more than around half the cell production capacity of phase two very soon, so they may bring up the eastern production line a few months before the western production line.

There's actually parallel production lines in the first phase. Does anyone remember the number of cathode ovens? I though it was supposed to 4, and we saw 1 in a room that was to hold 2. In any case, we shall soon see with the Nevada GEOD reports.

 

[dakh]

It would be logical that whatever dash/heads up display and other alien dreadnought tech they're planning for Model 3 cabin shows up in Model S/X at the same time or earlier than Model 3 second unveiling is done. Same for Autopilot hardware. They would have to be able to sell cars with this stuff before they release specifics to not affect current sales.

 

[schonelucht]

Sections B and C are both dedicated to Panasonic cell production. Quite possibly one is for TE cells and the other for TA cells.

Anyone know how large (length x width) one section is? It's easy to find references to total surface area, but it seems the dimensions were never officially communicated?

 

[Yggdrasill]

There's actually parallel production lines in the first phase. Does anyone remember the number of cathode ovens? I though it was supposed to 4, and we saw 1 in a room that was to hold 2. In any case, we shall soon see with the Nevada GEOD reports.

If that is the case, then it makes sense that Tesla will use some of the capacity of phase one for prototypes and initial production. Then once phase two is running smoothly, phase one will switch entirely to NMC.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

it's not my intent to derail conversation... but rather be a part of it... my original post this evening was in response to "taking out" BMW in 5 years. i would expect that is equally not relevant to the board (if either aren't)... but since it's in the long direction it goes unnoticed and unchallenged. regardless, i'll give it my best to not stir the hornets nest going forward.

Don't take it personally - it's just that many of the counterpoints you present have been discussed ad nauseum here (and are there in past posts for anyone to go back and review). In fact, if you are really interested in what the "enthusiastic investor" feels there's tons of reading archived right here on TMC. Based on that fact (that the information is there for the perusing), usually when a brand new poster with a counter point/view shows up here it is indeed with the intention to "stir up the hornets nest" and not add much value.

 

[stealthology]

EXCLUSIVE: China's Geely To Launch Global Brand In All-Out Attack At Tesla, Lexus, And Between

Oh boy. Good luck to them.

 

[RobStark]

EXCLUSIVE: China's Geely To Launch Global Brand In All-Out Attack At Tesla, Lexus, And Between

Oh boy. Good luck to them.

No BEVs. Just PHEVs and HEVs.

Affordable premium is oxymoronic.

H&M,Uniqlo,and Zara are crappy products with low prices sold with premium looking advertising.

That does not work in the auto business.

Fashion is much more subjective.

Crash ratings, Consumer Reports, IHS, JD Powers much more objective.

 

[Gerardf]

Asia and Europe all green. General market will probably not prevent us from breaking the DMA 50 & 200 today.

 

[JBRR]

Trudeau says Canada to implement carbon tax

From article:

"TORONTO (AP) — Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Monday that Canada will impose a tax on carbon emissions starting in 2018 as part of its efforts to meet targets set by the Paris climate change accord.

Trudeau made the announcement in Parliament on Monday as debate started over whether Canada should ratify the Paris accord on climate change. The House of Commons is expected to approve the Paris accord in a vote on Wednesday.

Trudeau said provinces and territories can either put a direct tax on carbon emissions of at least $10 Canadian (US$7.60) a ton or adopt a cap-and-trade system. If a province fails to do either by 2018, the federal government will implement a basic carbon tax of $10 a ton, rising by $10 a ton per year until it reaches $50 Canadian (US$38.11) a ton by 2022."

 

[dalalsid]

what?... again... what? 5 years?... and an "I second that"?

is this seriously the majority opinion on this board?... i think some of you need to leave SV for 3 seconds and get a glimpse of the real world.

Maybe you should look at a chart of BMW 3 sales in NA after the model 3 was announced. Or BMW 7 sales after the model S arrived. Then it will all start making sense. BMW was absent from the Paris auto show because of an emergency meeting to deal with the threat of EVs.

Also look at BMWs 100 year plan. It is basically Siri + autopilot 2.0 + materials. 1 and 2 will be taken care of in 5 years or less. So BMW vision is pretty much hopeless if they want 100 years for that.

 

[CatB]

Oh my GOD. I just figured out that TrendTrader007 is really Julian Cox....

... with a bloviation-ectomy?

Seriously TT007 - glad to have your input on this forum.

 

[Lessmog]

I'm just thinking out loud here on realistic short term catalysts:

• Continued march up simply based on proving their production/delivery capability.
  
• Analysts chiming in this week
• 10/28 Solar Roof unveiling-- I'd be pleasantly surprised if this moves the needle much
• SCTY Merger finalized-- unless it gets lagged by SunRun lawsuit, I'd think it would help SP. Finalization in Nov?
• Model 3 Part 2 reveal-- not sure if Elon has talked about this recently, if I remember correctly, I don't think he sounded 100% confident it would happen by the end of the year.
• Rumor builds that Autopilot 2.0 hardware is now in cars, or announcement by Elon (unlikely for this yr?)
• Posting GAAP profit in Nov (or maybe even a tweet?!)-- I swear, if we don't hit this, I will feel fooled by Elon. I feel like he's been planting hints all over the place lately, including but not limited to:
  • The infamous Aug 29th letter to employees which hung GAAP profit right in our faces ('currently a couple points away') and mentioning wanting to throw a pie in the face of Wall St. Not too sure that helped the shorting situation.
  • After the e-mail, raising $300M to do direct leases which would greatly help GAAP profits (please correct me if I'm wrong) and started a 2-yr lease special which was popular
  • Seems to be in an upbeat mood in Public appearances (y-combinator, SpaceX)
  • Mentioning 'likely our best quarter in history' in employee e-mail which he immediately made public on Twitter just last week.
  • Liberal/Playful usage of Tweets
  • Minimizing the importance/impact of non-GAAP earnings beginning in Q3 (in the deliveries PR)

Just a few cents, not necessarily in strict order of appearance:
1. The ending of this round of referrals on Oct 15 may signal some type of event, giving a time stamp to that whatever;
2. Announcing Silevo production? Giga + Fremont could use some rooftop power, maybe soon.
3. Actual merger voted and occurs.
???
Profit! (IFF underpants already stolen)

 

[Touring]

Tesla X second best selling car in Norway in September, second only to VW Golf. 601 Sold.