Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[larmor]

So with the Bolt being a no show till Spring of 2017, what's going to stop Tesla from eating up more of Chevy's lunch? Maybe the 3 will serve the Bolt like the S served the ELR (now discontinued..). Chevy better not delay any further, otherwise they're going to make Motor T. look like fools in 2017.. Oh, wait, that already happened the minute MT accepted those Ad $$$ from Chevy.

The interest in the Bolt is high alright, just how (high) would you have to be in order to choose the Bolt over the 3? Pretty damn high...

Both bolt and model 3 can coexist, even with 500k of each car annually. What would be problematic is increasing demand for a bolt which would take away from regular ICE sales at GM dealers. That is probably another reason that gm limits the bolt, they would destroy their own product line.

 

[doctoxics]

Are these numbers anywhere near realistic ?
How Fast Must Lithium Ion Batteries Fall For Tesla's Model 3 To Be Viable?

Model S battery cost $27K
Model 3 battery cost $9K

Author says battery cost has to drop 30% each year for the next 3 years for Model3 to make economic sense!

I don't think he makes any sense... but what do I know ?

I read this article and agree with the comments by you and others. The article is inaccurate, lacks analysis, and lacks understanding of the technology and economics of electric car battery packs. Appears to be one of the weaker FUD pieces.

 

[3Victoria]

Maye, there is still a price differential EV/ICE. Its appears that the Bolt is another compliance car. I hope I am wrong.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Hmmm, that brings up the subject of insurancd .... Tesla roofs may very well reduce your house insurance. For example, if they can weather hail, then insurance companies will offer cheaper insurance (is hail damage covered?).

Total life-time cost for a Tesla roof may be very compelling.

Yes....hail is covered and premiums going wild due to losses.....

 

[doctoxics]

Maybe someone here has already estimated the potential revenue from Tesla solar roofs, just for reroofing. If we assume 5 million reroofs per year at $20,000 per roof (WAG), the revenue figure would be 100 billion/year. And then there are new roofs. I can now see that revenue from Tesla Energy may soon surpass Tesla Auto. Roof tiles, solar cells, batteries and battery packs are much easier to manufacture than entire automobiles.

 

[tander]

Based on simple observations of what Elon has stated all along, he's got the support from institutions. This puts a big hole in the short thesis that it would be difficult for Tesla to raise money. Ever heard of a $10 billion company on ludicrous growth having problems raising money? C'mon shorts.. You gotta give me something better than that to drop my TSLA.

So in the end, as it turns out, Elon was telling the truth after all, when has he ever lied to us? Never..

Wonder how many SCTY short positions will let it turn into TSLA?

Hmmm, that brings up the subject of insurancd .... Tesla roofs may very well reduce your house insurance. For example, if they can weather hail, then insurance companies will offer cheaper insurance (is hail damage covered?).

Total life-time cost for a Tesla roof may be very compelling.

You gotta wonder what self-driving and pre-collision stuff will do for insurance too.

 

[Krugerrand]

any thoughts why eon musk left that quickly?

Time was up? He said just a few questions, then just one more. He telegraphed his departure. He's a busy man.

 

[Krugerrand]

. Thoughts?

The train has left the station loaded with steak.

Reassurances?

The train has left the station loaded with steak.

It's all good, man. Don't sweat it. You don't have to do the hard work ahead, you just have to sit back and wait to collect the moola.

 

[tander]

Time was up? He said just a few questions, then just one more. He telegraphed his departure. He's a busy man.

I'm pretty sure there were elephants that needed riding and Bollywood dancing to do.

 

[Krugerrand]

Ceramic, slate, and other roof types are common, just not where you live .... there is a wider world out there.

For realz?! Who knew?

 

[supratachophobia]

Wonder how many SCTY short positions will let it turn into TSLA?

You gotta wonder what self-driving and pre-collision stuff will do for insurance too.

No offense meant, but we've yet to see improvements anywhere in a system, trickle down into lower insurance rates in any industry. Health insurance is probably the best example of this, but also with Tesla auto on a smaller scale the last 3-4yrs.

 

[demetri]

When he said 3-4 months, what was the question he was answering? Was it the start of model3 production? Because he said this is not the time to answer those questions. Or did I hear wrong?

 

[Xpert]

I might be in the minority camp here, I am very very disappointed with this whole merger thing -looks like there is no dip to buy tomorrow, like some here Still holding some cash on hand.

Some of Upcoming catalysts include Q4 results, Powerwall 2 shipping in January, M3 part 3, M3 shipping second half 2017, and now The lowest priced roof with free solar electricity is shipping in volume next summer.

I'm afraid analyst downgrades are coming next few days because Tesla analysts at this point will be so confused On how they would be able to add up all these massive revenue streams that will be coming in 2017.

Forget it, I'm all in tomorrow. 2019 LEAPS here I come!

 

[Ameliorate]

When he said 3-4 months, what was the question he was answering? Was it the start of model3 production? Because he said this is not the time to answer those questions. Or did a hear wrong?

answered earlier ~

MrRandyB
Just went back and re-listened

I think this is what I heard

Q: Do you have a schedule for the model 3 third reveal?

A: Not the time for this announcement but beginning of spring or 3-4 months from now.

 

[mmd]

Here is a good summary of roof types, costs, etc.
Types of Roofing Material | The House Designers

That's a very wide range of prices! Asphalt material cost is from $50-$150 for 100 sq ft, meaning $0.50-$1.50 per sq. ft. Slate from $5.50-$10/sq ft.

I checked the prices of normal solar panels. Prices have fallen big time. 4 panels of 250W each are available from $750 to $1000.
Pack of 20 Hyundai panels for $2589. Pack of 12 Trina solar panels $1699.
New Lot of 4 Amerisolar UL LSolar 250 Watt 24V Polycrystalline PV Solar Panels | eBay
Lot of 20 Hyundai 250W Poly Solar Panel Grade A 250 Watts 5 kw of total power | eBay
Lot of 12 Trina 250W Poly Solar Panel Grade A 250 Watts 3kw of total power | eBay

This gives us per panel price of $129 to $188.
Size of these 250W panels are 65" x 39" = roughly 18 sq ft. (Common Sizes of Solar Panels - Brightstar Solar)
So, these solar panels cost anywhere from $7.16 to $10.44 per sq. ft.

I'm going to guess that, solar roof, which is lot more fancy than the simple solar panels, will be at least this price, about $8-$12/sq ft.
Its cost is definitely not comparable to Asphalt roofing cost. More like most expensive slate roofing.

Now here is the key part. My 2000 sq ft home + 400 sq. ft garage has a roof of about 3100 sq ft (30 degree pitch assumed).
At $8 a sq ft for solar rooof, that will be ~$25k just in material cost.
But my 12 solar panels (merely 216 sq ft. total area) produces enough energy for me. My NEM period just ended yesterday, and I've a surplus of ~$140!
If I were looking to add new solar, the choice would be simple for me, at least financially.

 

[Ulmo]

One FUD appeared in my email that said "Will investors continue to buy the shares of a money-losing entity, as Tesla has been for its entire history." Anyone who writes that is either stupid or lying. I will not give that company clicks by mentioning who said it. Just remember that FUD will still try to have a home, but if Papafox is right, they'll be moving on to greener pastures, and leave Tesla behind.

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla, the car company that only makes cars, batteries, powerwalls, powerpacks, solar, solar roofs, charging stations and robotics. No way it's worth the market cap right now. It's only a car company remember!

 

[Green Pete]

Tesla, the car company that only makes cars, batteries, powerwalls, powerpacks, solar, solar roofs, charging stations and robotics. No way it's worth the market cap right now. It's only a car company remember!

I think one majorly understated thing that Tesla bought with scty is securities sales. Tesla is now also an expert at financial instruments. If the model 3 becomes a profit generating car then Tesla could sell the leases as a renewable transport security and finance cars themselves.

 

[Ulmo]

Now here is the key part. My 2000 sq ft home + 400 sq. ft garage has a roof of about 3100 sq ft (30 degree pitch assumed).
At $8 a sq ft for solar roof, that will be ~$25k just in material cost.
But my 12 solar panels (merely 216 sq ft. total area) produces enough energy for me. My NEM period just ended yesterday, and I have a surplus of ~$140!
If I were looking to add new solar, the choice would be simple for me, at least financially.

It's not calculated when you add solar; it's calculated when you replace roof. Also, they said all-in the cost will be <= concrete tile I'm assuming, so Tesla Roof total cost to install <= ( total cost of installing concrete at $4.5/sqft material cost + whatever labor.) That's not necessarily $8/sqft "just in material cost", although I don't know the labor breakdown.

 

[Ulmo]

When he said 3-4 months, what was the question he was answering? Was it the start of model3 production? Because he said this is not the time to answer those questions. Or did I hear wrong?

The guy sitting somewhere in front of me asked when the Model 3 (second) reveal will be; Elon said this is not the time for that announcement, but probably the beginning of Spring or something, in 3-4 months from now.

Also, he said Tesla Roof will start volume production next summer, and will introduce the most popular of the 4 roof tile types first, and then, going in order of popularity, one more type every 3 months or so.