Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[myusername]

Today's drop in TSLA was primarily the result of sector rebalancing. It's the reason why the DOW was up and the NASDAQ was down today. It's hard to believe that TSLA goes down because the price of oil goes up, but that's the crazy way the market works sometimes.

WWW.shortalnalytics.com says that 60% of TSLA transactions were conducted by shorts today, so even if the morning's drop was due to the rebalancing, I suspect the shorts gave a push in the afternoon. Neither the NASDAQ nor other tech stocks I saw had the late afternoon significant drop that TSLA had today.

The good news about sector rebalancing is that it usually is a temporary dip for TSLA. We had two of them last month and still managed to break 198 last week. The reason why it tends to be a temporary dip is because the market is not retreating and because the company's ability to make money has not been materially impacted by the oil rise which set off the sector rebalancing. In fact, I could argue with one arm tied behind my back that the rise in oil will benefit Tesla over time. Consumers have just as much money to spend after a sector rebalancing. Tesla remains a rare high-growth company with a potential trillion dollar capitalization ahead of it years from now. As Tesla demonstrates its ability to deliver, buyers will return. Count on it.

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[kehlKroos]

There is another full ship S&X going to ASIA two days ago

Will reach ShangHai arround Dec.17

But they may not deliver most of cars on this ship at Dec

 

[Green Pete]

There is another full ship S&X going to ASIA two days ago

Will reach ShangHai arround Dec.17

But they may not deliver most of cars on this ship at Dec

Christmas isn't a thing in china.

 

[kehlKroos]

Christmas isn't a thing in china.

It is not related to TESLA

it's related to Chinese Gov's import policy

 

[zdriver]

@kehlKroos - any chance you're soft and fuzzy? Totally serious.

Edit: Username seems football related. Guessing not soft and fuzzy. Or a garment.

 

[Ulmo]

New leaf-like nano surface

Musk said that Tesla is working with current solar roof tile partner 3M on its future coatings, so this could be a process in development simultaneously in multiple organizations. But the tech, should it be commercialized, would do lots to help push the solar market forward, given the value of any significant efficiency increases in panel design.

The above article was speculation, but is an example of a key area (focusing, directing and collecting more protons in existing cells and cell encasings) that shows huge future potential in solar collection. If Tesla has the research & development and/or partnership & acquisition motivation and capability, Tesla, like any serious well heeled contender, can continue to be marketably relevant in this field. This requires good engineering vision and management; any inside knowledge on their abilities in that respect?

I know Elon talks about protons bouncing around and causing electrons to come out of cells in higher efficiency due to stuff they work on in their solar roof product development (he answered ~2 questions this way in the Tesla shareholder merge of Solar City vote meeting after shareholder business question & answer talk), so he's clearly aware of it being an integral business issue, but that's part of all solar cell collector product research and development, so it would be nice to be able to connect the dots and know Tesla management is capable of, willing to and actively progressing in this field beyond existing announced improvements.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Canada? Really that is the best you can do?

Not true, all sales data I posted are US, not Canada.

As I expected, you are cherry picking data again.

Here:
Lexus LS: MSRP 72k 2016 sales YTD 4,905
Lexus RC: MSRP 40k 2016 sales YTD 10,123
Lexus CT: MSRP 31k 2016 sales YTD 7,900

Nicely done, comparing mainstream large luxury sedan with niche market small hatchback (RC) and small sport coupe (RC) which have marginally small sales. The proper comparison to mainstream large luxury sedan (LS) would be mainstream mid-size luxury sedan (ES), but that would make my point because 2016 YTD sales of ES where ... 10.6x of the sales of LS (with LS 1.9x the price of ES)

BMW 7: MSRP 81k 2015 Sales: 9,292
BMW 2: MSRP: 31k 2015 Sales: 13,000

Pretty clever manipulation again, comparing mainstream large luxury sedan with small sport coupe catering to niche market and having 1/7th of the sales of BMW 3-Series, which would be a proper comparison here - as it is mainstream luxury sport sedan. This, of course would again make my point, as in 2015 BMW 3 Series outsold BMW 7 ... 10.2x (94,527 vs. 9,292).

MB S: MSRP 97k 2015 Sales: 21,934
MB E: MSRP 52k 2015 Sales: 49,738

Cooking the books again by moving base of the comparison way up market, where numbers are skewed. The basis of our conversation was comparing Bolt/Volt to Model S at 2x the price. Volt starts at $33,170, Bolt at $37,500 far removed from the MB E which is 57% to 39% more expensive. The proper MB comparison would be the one I included, i.e. popular mainstream mid to large luxury sedan (MB CLS) to popular mainstream compact luxury sedan (MB C Class) which sells 11.62x of MB CLS because it is 1.89x cheaper.

Oh look, there is no 10x for a 2x difference in price. Surprise (says no one who understands the auto market)

This is pretty sad - outright falsehood here.

It is not easy being a troll!

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Canada? Really that is the best you can do?

Price Data: New Cars, Used Cars, Car Reviews and Pricing | Edmunds.com


As I expected, you are cherry picking data again.

Here:
Lexus LS: MSRP 72k 2016 sales YTD 4,905
Lexus RC: MSRP 40k 2016 sales YTD 10,123
Lexus CT: MSRP 31k 2016 sales YTD 7,900

BMW 7: MSRP 81k 2015 Sales: 9,292
BMW 2: MSRP: 31k 2015 Sales: 13,000

MB S: MSRP 97k 2015 Sales: 21,934
MB E: MSRP 52k 2015 Sales: 49,738


Oh look, there is no 10x for a 2x difference in price. Surprise (says no one who understands the auto market)


I feel bad for you that you find facts incendiary and you draw conclusions from cherry picked data.

You are doing exactly what you are accusing someone else is doing.

You should compare LS with IS,7 with 3, and S with C. What do those number look like?

 

[Ulmo]

tailwind .. Solarcity launches in Florida
The Sunshine State | SolarCity

Every article I read about this the last few days left both the names Tesla and Solar City out of the news announcement title, but kept Tesla in the title of all (extremely repeated) FUD and excessive negative innuendo articles.

Stock price suffers from (poorly paid) "news" sources. This is the second time I'm posting thinking there must be a way better articles from Electrek.co could be better cited. I'll have to pay more attention to see if I'm just skipping Elektrek articles in brokerage news systems as I already knew them or if they're actually omitted in favor of fake garbage.

 

[vgrinshpun]

BTW, list of new (not titled) Tesla Model S on EV-cpo.com (US + EU +HK) went down by 75 cars since midnight. At this rate all "demo" fleet and "inventory" Model S cars currently listed there will be sold-out in less than 2 weeks.

To update the above, in 24 hours list of new (not titled) Tesla Model S on EV-cpo.com (US + EU +HK) went down by 93 cars (from 1299 to 1206), so we are on track to clear all "demo" and "inventory" Model S cars currently listed on EV-cpo.com in less than 2 weeks.

 

[Ulmo]

And how the oil companies will do everything in their power to stop the evolution to clean energy (am I going to be regarded as the tinfoil-hat guy or do you guys feel the same?).

They exert pressure of all sorts. That pressure has to be constantly countered, otherwise it could slick us. One way to counter it is sell good solutions and verbally say the solutions are good and the problems are bad. The "problems are bad" part often aligns with environmental religious zealotry, so there's a danger tapping into that market segment alienates sensible consumers, so it's important to also have foundational scientific research and demonstration of real environmental benefits.

We should see more coal burning pollution collection sample data and pollution health effect and climate data. For instance, California coal pollution has been growing, mostly from China. But Tesla is in a tight position to mention that, since it might thwart their own China pollution solutions and sales efforts by getting revenge from China regulators. Another visible example is clearer skies, but that's already been helped by gas regulations, and it would require explaining total pollution output of both industrial chains (gas vs electric vehicle) to be believable. It's a slow and careful dance, fraught with many potentials for missteps.

I can only take heart it seems to be going well, and although I don't have a crystal ball into the future, I fear not fast enough for the environment, and thus hope we go faster. Tesla is an important part of that, and has gained enough strength to stay the course on its own, but needs to either get complete electric vehicle competition or obliterate the competition to succeed in the environmental goals.

 

[Ulmo]

Oooh thanks for the detail. And with HK being RHD, they have to push the RHD units while the factory is still running RHD production.

I doubt this in particular slows production. I seem to recall mixed sided steering cars intermixed effortlessly on the line. I either saw it firsthand (during tour) or someone else reported it.

 

[Ulmo]

How much of this regional allocation they do each quarter varies... and they had previously said that they were trying to move away from it. But clearly, that isn't the case this quarter.

I heard this was another year of regulatory end of year considerations they're trying to meet, as I also assume you too read on this forum. I could see this being a legitimate source of increased orders from certain regions and requests from customers to deliver timely.

This sets up a quarterly wave pattern naturally, so if they were trying to avoid that pattern for some reason, Tesla would have to actively thwart it whenever there's no regulatory caused customer desires driving the regional allocation the rest of the time, all simply to avoid "looking like they are juicing the numbers", which is a pathetic excuse to rejigger factory efficiency allocations, but could be done if they wanted to. They could still fill ships all at once, but randomize the dates a little bit more, as well as try to de-resonate quarter timings with delivery timings.

 

[Ulmo]

So he's [Steve Wozniak, co-founder Apple] the trend setter for the world then?

I have first person knowledge he was into raves when they came on the scene. I think he's a consummate early adopter: Prius, Tesla, now Bolt. Don't be surprised to see him in more electric vehicles, including whatever is out in 3-10 years. Following his lead doesn't show where the masses are now. For instance, Prius sold many cars, even though he had a Tesla. That means it's Tesla's turn to sell many cars, if he even is a trend setter. I think he's actually a very rich very connected trend follower, so you see him in many early adopter trends already established out of view of less wealthy less connected people, and many things that don't become big trends.

He follows many big trends and many big misses, coming to both very early. He can afford to.

The Bolt is a sign of a big coming trend: of the Tesla Model 3 in particular, and affordable electric vehicles in general, most likely more slanted toward the ones that don't look like insects. GM rushed and exaggerated their announcements of the Bolt because of Tesla Model 3. Question of course how much pie they each eat. The pie pieces are different kinds. (Ok, bad pie analogy.) There's lots of signs Bolt could be a toe dipping and Model 3 jumping into the pool, and FUD says that is opposite; truth lies somewhere in between, probably closer to the honest people.

 

[dennis]

The second question is the level of overlap in the S market vs. the X. How much did the X take away from S sales vs. expand the market by attracting buyers who wouldn't consider the S. If it isn't that much of an expansion, then the question is how much will the 3 take away from the S?

I believe the question of Model 3 robbing Model S sales is moot. Given the number of deposits from just a single 30 minute webcast, we can expect the demand to be many times 373K once the Model 3 can be seen and driven. It will be no problem for Tesla to sell 2 Model 3's for every Model S potential purchaser who opts for the Model 3 instead.

 

[dennis]

Do hybrids get the full 7.5k rebate? I could be wrong, but I thought that was only for 100% EV.

It depends entirely on the size of the battery.

 

[Ulmo]

I have first person knowledge he was into raves when they came on the scene.

I just remembered: it was a failed event he put on that never had enough people show. It was a disappointment.

I think he was trying to promote a universal remote control. That actually happened but his universal remote company didn't do well in that field or succeed.

Apple did well.

His early adopter strategy often hits on concepts that are big, even if he doesn't personally pick the exact winners. Him liking Bolt is getting hands on an affordable electric vehicle that he can drive across the valley without running out (Leaf), since Tesla didn't sell him one yet (because they're still building the factories for it).

 

[pGo]

To update the above, in 24 hours list of new (not titled) Tesla Model S on EV-cpo.com (US + EU +HK) went down by 93 cars (from 1299 to 1206), so we are on track to clear all "demo" and "inventory" Model S cars currently listed on EV-cpo.com in less than 2 weeks.

This does not mean all the cars missing are sold. We've seen fluctuations of inventory being added and removed all the time.

 

[schonelucht]

This does not mean all the cars missing are sold. We've seen fluctuations of inventory being added and removed all the time.

True, but a steady draw dawn of the European inventory of around 20 vehicles per day seems sustained. On the other hand, the drop of nearly 200 yesterday in US inventory is a bit circumspect and may just be for a different reason than an actual sale.

 

[AlMc]

Honestly, I don't know. We know of about 4000 cars delivered in the US so far, and estimating 2000 in EU. Only the last few days of EU deliveries were from cars produced this quarter. Everything else was from the pipeline (extrapolating from the Norwegian individual delivered VINs, < 160k for S, <17k for X) That makes me think overseas orders so far were probably the rest of the pipeline (3500). That leaves 16k cars to be delivered in December. It's possible, but it is also fragile. One severe winterstorm that disrupts shipping logistics at an importune time and we could miss big. Not sure if the market is in the mood to forgive Elon even with such a good excuse. They haven't really afforded his companies the benefit of the doubt lately.

Do they have the demand? There was a passing reference in this thread about incentives that are going away soon in Hong Kong and mainland China. If that is true, then it is very plausible they are experiencing a lot of demand there. Absence of that, I think the demand really will have to come from the US. I don't see European deliveries hit 6000 or more this quarter.

I do think they have US demand. The mood is fairly reasonable given the election and basic economy remains strong for the moderate to high earners that are buying Model S/X. Also, I think the non-urgency with which Tesla approaches the Supercharger policy change is a good sign they don't need the demand lever.

At the same time, I can see a case where Tesla decides internally. Screw the delivery guidance, we go all out for margin (and profitability). They can be profitable even with missing guidance, so why not?.

Agree with this post, especially, IMO, while TM would like to hit their 80K delivery guidance for 2016, the either not leaked or not even stated goal is to stay profitable. *IF* (big if) they make their guidance on deliveries AND are profitable (lots of *ands*) then the SP will rise and if high enough they will go back to the market for additional financing which would expedite the building of another factory (Europe) and increase the likelihood that in 2020-21 (long term) that we see vehicle production start in Europe.

OTOH, if we don't see that scenario and the SP languishes in the $160-190 range, no cap raise (unless EM self funds via borrowing against his interests in SpaceX) and slower organic growth with the SP rising with either the reveal of the model 3 with detailed pricing late H1 2017 OR the actual start of production in mid to late H2 2017.

With either scenario I do not see a big SP increase in what I will define as Short Term: December 2016.

Just some musings/ramblings/opinions from someone still waiting for $170 (or 200-210) to getting back to my original levels of TSLA investment.