Tesla autopilot HW3

[EVNow]

Every time I read this I roll my eyes. I gave a pretty concrete example of when he was dead wrong, and "the industry" was right. None of the stuff that Tesla nor SpaceX have accomplished have been things that anybody said "can't be done". The commentary was whether or not money could be made doing them, and so far with Tesla the jury is still out.

You must have been asleep if you didn't notice all the naysayers about almost everything Tesla & SpaceX has done. Or may be you haven't followed the industry for 15 years, like I have.

 

[NHK X]

Anyone have a link to a source that documents all the goals and projected accomplishments Tesla and space x have made throughout history (from inception)? To me being late is far different from being dead wrong.... Tesla and spade x have been late many times, I would wager though they have accomplished far more of their goals and projections than people give credit for. A simple list with when they accomplished said predictions and goals would go a long way in helping “naysayers” see the full picture. If the data shows the opposite, I will eat my sock.

 

[electronblue]

Anyone have a link to a source that documents all the goals and projected accomplishments Tesla and space x have made throughout history (from inception)? To me being late is far different from being dead wrong.... Tesla and spade x have been late many times, I would wager though they have accomplished far more of their goals and projections than people give credit for. A simple list with when they accomplished said predictions and goals would go a long way in helping “naysayers” see the full picture. If the data shows the opposite, I will eat my sock.

The thing is: reality is more nuanced than that.

It is one thing to believe that Tesla can achieve Level 5 because it has achieved BEV and SpaceX has achieved VTVL. In fact, I probably would join that club — the chances are they will (barring a company failure or disruptive acquisition type of event).

But will they achieve Level 5 with the current hardware and within the timelines relevant to current cars?

On this, we have evidence to the contrary too. P85D HP failed to reach the advertised HP figures even after numerous software updates and hardware retrofits (Ludicrous). P90DL failed to reach the advertised acceleration figures even after several pack versions which were not retrofitted to older cars. In this case it took P100D in 2016 to actually deliver on the promises made in 2014-2015. All of which was little comfort to those with P85Ds and P90DLs. Those who bought late P90DLs were promised P100D retrofit opportunities (so they took delivery) which eventually came but took around half of the usual lease lifetime of a new car...

Tesla promised all Model S owners lighted vanity mirror retrofits back in the day. They never came. Buy a new car.

Elon promised MCU2 retrofit opportunities to Model S/X owners. They never came. Buy a new car.

Because there is a big, big difference if they achieve Level 5 in 1 year with the current hardware+HW3 computer (as they said at Autonomy Investor Day) or ten years after an unrelated hardware update or three. Or in any case outside the life of the current cars.

So the question is not so much will Tesla deliver Level 5, but will they deliver Level 5 to the cars we bought — and will they do it anywhere near the timeslines promised — which they have already broken many times and cars bought in late 2016 will be reaching end of usual leasing lives this year...?

On Autonomy Investor Day Tesla said they expect to be Level 5 no geofence feature compete in 2019 and have operating Tesla robotaxis without anyone in them with regulatory approval somewhere in 2020. All of this with the AP suite sold since October 2016 so our current cars (with FSD computer retrofits expected before end of 2019). So that is the current guidance we are comparing the unfolding reality with.

 

[DrDabbles]

Anyone have a link to a source that documents all the goals and projected accomplishments Tesla and space x have made throughout history (from inception)? To me being late is far different from being dead wrong.... Tesla and spade x have been late many times, I would wager though they have accomplished far more of their goals and projections than people give credit for. A simple list with when they accomplished said predictions and goals would go a long way in helping “naysayers” see the full picture. If the data shows the opposite, I will eat my sock.

Here's one. Fully self driving cars in 2016. No, 2017. No, wait, 2018 for real. Hold on, okay, 2019 this time for sure. Okay, okay, robotaxi fleet making you $30k annul profit, on the road by beginning of 2020.

 

[CK_Stuggi]

Anyone have a link to a source that documents all the goals and projected accomplishments Tesla and space x have made throughout history (from inception)? To me being late is far different from being dead wrong.... Tesla and spade x have been late many times, I would wager though they have accomplished far more of their goals and projections than people give credit for. A simple list with when they accomplished said predictions and goals would go a long way in helping “naysayers” see the full picture. If the data shows the opposite, I will eat my sock.

This (though it seems it hasn't been updated in 1 1/2 years);
Bloomberg Tracking Elon Musk Goals

 

[NHK X]

This (though it seems it hasn't been updated in 1 1/2 years);
Bloomberg Tracking Elon Musk Goals

awesome exactly what I was looking for.

 

[NHK X]

The thing is: reality is more nuanced than that.

It is one thing to believe that Tesla can achieve Level 5 because it has achieved BEV and SpaceX has achieved VTVL. In fact, I probably would join that club — the chances are they will (barring a company failure or disruptive acquisition type of event).

But will they achieve Level 5 with the current hardware and within the timelines relevant to current cars?

On this, we have evidence to the contrary too. P85D HP failed to reach the advertised HP figures even after numerous software updates and hardware retrofits (Ludicrous). P90DL failed to reach the advertised acceleration figures even after several pack versions which were not retrofitted to older cars. In this case it took P100D in 2016 to actually deliver on the promises made in 2014-2015. All of which was little comfort to those with P85Ds and P90DLs. Those who bought late P90DLs were promised P100D retrofit opportunities (so they took delivery) which eventually came but took around half of the usual lease lifetime of a new car...

Tesla promised all Model S owners lighted vanity mirror retrofits back in the day. They never came. Buy a new car.

Elon promised MCU2 retrofit opportunities to Model S/X owners. They never came. Buy a new car.

Because there is a big, big difference if they achieve Level 5 in 1 year with the current hardware+HW3 computer (as they said at Autonomy Investor Day) or ten years after an unrelated hardware update or three. Or in any case outside the life of the current cars.

So the question is not so much will Tesla deliver Level 5, but will they deliver Level 5 to the cars we bought — and will they do it anywhere near the timeslines promised — which they have already broken many times and cars bought in late 2016 will be reaching end of usual leasing lives this year...?

On Autonomy Investor Day Tesla said they expect to be Level 5 no geofence feature compete in 2019 and have operating Tesla robotaxis without anyone in them with regulatory approval somewhere in 2020. All of this with the AP suite sold since October 2016 so our current cars (with FSD computer retrofits expected before end of 2019). So that is the current guidance we are comparing the unfolding reality with.

I def agree it’s nuanced, and there’s been a lot events recently to be more skeptical in general. However, I still see a company that is reaching far with aggressive goals. They do some idiotic things here and there but overall I see mistakes and misjudgments have to occur for such rapid growth. As the company matures over the next couple decades I would expect more refinement, more logic, planning and wisdom, if that makes sense. Sure I’ll be a little upset if neither one of my cars gets to level 5 FSD, but that is what is great about this whole topic. We all get to make personal choices to back our finances to match our convictions. While I still appreciate the value of the car and EAP in current status (even if level 5 FSD isn’t reached although I hope it to continue to improve), others may think otherwise and can choose to divest of Tesla in various forms. IE not buy FSD, or choose to bet against via stock market or trade in their vehicle.

I’m not 100% happy with Tesla as a company by the way, they have a lot of room to grow especially in service, especially down here in west Texas. I’ve had a couple poor experiences already. But help me understand, if your conviction is that Tesla won’t deliver on promises for your vehicle, what else is making you actually keep the vehicle? If I were at that point, I think I would sell the car for as much value as possible, and purchase something else. (Not trying to pick a fight, just trying to understand).

Maybe I see things too black and white and not to disregard people’s valid frustrations with the company but here’s the root of what I’m getting at.

If you think Tesla will succeed, grow and become a giant in the car/energy biz, purchase stock and invest into the company to your ability. Purchase products and future products if you want.

If you believe FSD will eventually come to your hardware specifications, or you believe there will be continued valuable improvements via HW3 retrofit if you believe that will occur, purchase FSD.

If you don’t believe FSD will come of don’t see the potential for valuable improvement with current hardware spec, either don’t purchase FSD or sell your car.

If you don’t see a successfully financial future for Tesla, or feel that Tesla has been lying to slow it’s eventual downfall, sell your stock, sell your car and consider shorting the company.

 

[NHK X]

Also I apologize for disorganized thoughts and sloppy writing. Writing on my phone while my young kids are trying to destroy my home.

 

[electronblue]

if your conviction is that Tesla won’t deliver on promises for your vehicle, what else is making you actually keep the vehicle? If I were at that point, I think I would sell the car for as much value as possible, and purchase something else. (Not trying to pick a fight, just trying to understand).

I have no Tesla stock to sell and I don’t dabble in the markets anyway.

As for the car, it is the best BEV currently available and it is a sunk cost. I bought it when we did not know EAP/FSD timeline was different than announced. Selling the car would now simply mean taking a loss on both utility and value on the BEV part.

I guess selling it would make sense if I expected a sudden company failure, but that has never been my point (although theoretically anything is possible — it is a theoretical risk I’ve chosen to live with).

My skepticism revolves around Tesla’s ability to deliver on their FSD announcements. Now, if Tesla allowed me to sell the FSD option back to them at the price it was bought plus sufficient interest, that might be something to consider.

But then again, it is a sunk cost that may bring me something down the road or it may not... why take a loss now? Any loss taken is already in the books and that won’t change.

 

[Daniel in SD]

One big difference between FSD and Tesla's other achievements is that there are huge number of companies investing crazy amounts of money into developing autonomous vehicles. All of Tesla's other achievements have been commercialization of things that already existed.
If there were already level 5 robotaxis in the same way there were already electric cars and VTVL rockets then I would give Tesla a much higher chance of success.

But help me understand, if your conviction is that Tesla won’t deliver on promises for your vehicle, what else is making you actually keep the vehicle?

The Model 3 is the only car in its class (<$60k electric sport sedan) and is a great car. Reliability is suspect but if it turns out to be a lemon I can afford to take the loss.

 

[electronblue]

@NHK X For what it is worth, I did forgo buying a planned Model 3 as a second car though. It is one thing to keep what you already have and what you already paid for, than to buy more.

 

[NHK X]

I have no Tesla stock to sell and I don’t dabble in the markets anyway.

As for the car, it is the best BEV currently available and it is a sunk cost. I bought it when we did not know EAP/FSD timeline was different than announced. Selling the car would now simply mean taking a loss on both utility and value on the BEV part.

I guess selling it would make sense if I expected a sudden company failure, but that has never been my point (although theoretically anything is possible — it is a theoretical risk I’ve chosen to live with).

My skepticism revolves around Tesla’s ability to deliver on their FSD announcements. Now, if Tesla allowed me to sell the FSD option back to them at the price it was bought plus sufficient interest, that might be something to consider.

But then again, it is a sunk cost that may bring me something down the road or it may not... why take a loss now? Any loss taken is already in the books and that won’t change.

true, thanks for sharing. That helps me understand. Maybe I’m the silly one for purchasing FSD more recently despite recent events but again time will tell.

Well at least if you believe HW3 retrofits will occur, at least it’s one way to keep your car viable with new features as long as possible.

 

[electronblue]

@NHK X Indeed, if anything I find myself more reluctant to swap the car because of FSD.

I paid for it and Tesla is yet to deliver anything for it. Swapping the car now would mean losing that ”investment” entirely. I am reluctant to do that. Maybe I’m going to keep the car forever.

 

[NHK X]

@NHK X Indeed, if anything I find myself more reluctant to swap the car because of FSD.

I paid for it and Tesla is yet to deliver anything for it. Swapping the car now would mean losing that ”investment” entirely. I am reluctant to do that. Maybe I’m going to keep the car forever.

Puhaha. Similar plan, going to drive both cars into the ground and leave them for my kids to drive (they are 1 and 2.5 years old).

 

[electronblue]

Puhaha. Similar plan, going to drive both cars into the ground and leave them for my kids to drive (they are 1 and 2.5 years old).

Someone recently asked why feel bad about FSD and all this — I think it was @diplomat33 — but this may be hard to understand: I don’t feel bad about the FSD situation anymore. It is a purchase decision made long ago, it does not bother me and diminish the cars usability etc at all. Sure, we were fooled and I would have preferred not to have been, but any emotion related to that is long gone.

But it has given me certain sense of purpose to be frank about it — and I feel very good about that, quite the opposite of feeling bad. If I can help someone else avoid the same mistake, my mistake will not have been completely wasted. If accountability from the community helps Tesla be more open and deliver better on their promises in the future, again all the better.

 

[DrDabbles]

I’m not 100% happy with Tesla as a company by the way, they have a lot of room to grow especially in service, especially down here in west Texas.

Ah, you must not have heard. The problem is actually Texas and the state auto dealers association lobbying the state to keep Tesla out. Texas is pro-business as long as it's the business already in Texas.

if your conviction is that Tesla won’t deliver on promises for your vehicle, what else is making you actually keep the vehicle?

I know you aren't making this argument flippantly, but I absolutely hate this response. It's given so many times by so many people, and it's completely played out. Why would I keep my Tesla? Because the car is a good car. Tesla as an energy / vehicle company is a great idea. Tying to do that, while also trying to make research breakthroughs on autonomous driving systems is not a great idea.

What I'd love to see Tesla do is to iterate on image recognition systems, methodically, over time. Make steady progress, add safety systems nobody else is offering, and continually improve the vehicle without trying to make headlines and turn the ignorant public into test subjects. Simply detecting a driver running a red light or stop sign could have a massive positive impact on occupant safety. That's not a feature that's completely out of their grasp. But go-to-sleep-and-wake-at-your-destination autonomous driving? Simply put, there's no evidence that problem will be solved in a decade or even this century. We've been at it since the 1950s, and we've made poor progress so far.

If you think Tesla will succeed, grow and become a giant in the car/energy biz, purchase stock and invest into the company to your ability.

Be careful giving out stock advice. Even if Tesla is successful, the global economy is fickle and you're asking for trouble investing in individual stocks. This is real f**kin life. Protect yo' godamn neck. Aight!

Step to the Wu. Wu-Tang Financial.

 

[diplomat33]

But go-to-sleep-and-wake-at-your-destination autonomous driving? Simply put, there's no evidence that problem will be solved in a decade or even this century. We've been at it since the 1950s, and we've made poor progress so far.

FSD work has not been going on since the 50's. Google started their self-driving car project in 2009.

True autonomous driving will be here sooner than decades or century. This is Renault's L4 prototype now:

 

[Daniel in SD]

FSD work has not been going on since the 50's. Google started their self-driving car project in 2009.

It has. GM Firebird program in the 50's. Level 4 system designed to used on special highways.

https://www.gmheritagecenter.com/do...956-firebird-II/1956_Firebird_II_Brochure.pdf
General Motors Firebird - Wikipedia

 

[diplomat33]

It has. GM Firebird program in the 50's. Level 4 system designed to used on special highways.
View attachment 452429
https://www.gmheritagecenter.com/do...956-firebird-II/1956_Firebird_II_Brochure.pdf
General Motors Firebird - Wikipedia

Yes, engineers in the 50's envisioned the possibility of driverless cars someday, but it was never actually developed in any meaningful way. The brochure even says it will be "far far in the future". Plus, it was not what we would consider true autonomous driving. The car is not doing the driving, it is simply following a guide on specially constructed highways. That's very different from what autonomous driving projects are today.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Yes, engineers in the 50's envisioned the possibility of driverless cars someday, but it was never actually developed in any meaningful way. The brochure even says it will be "far far in the future". Plus, it was not what we would consider true autonomous driving. The car is not doing the driving, it is simply following a guide on specially constructed highways. That's very different from what autonomous driving projects are today.

Thanks, I got a kick out of that. The point is that people have been working on autonomous vehicles for a very long time, it's not a new idea. Personally, I think narrowing the scope to highways is a great idea.