Every time I look at the issue of giga battery factory, Apple display production issues come right in front.
It is easy to forget now but think about the production issues Apple had with the original iPhone or the ratina iPads. Apple even had to re-establish the display glass factory that was non-existent (corning used had the solution since years but had no buyer for it and essentially did not run a single piece of display glass through production). Then comes the production issues of display itself & RAM. Apple solved them by working with the suppliers - by investing in them while controlling quality and gradually increased yield.
The Gen 3 can be compared with the original iPhone launch. Apple announced the iPhone whole 6 months in advance - to gauge market reaction, demand, and then establish production pieces by showing them demand. Apple initially invested in RAM production with Samsung for iPods, and then later on with
Sharp and as recently as a few months ago making a deal with TSMC for chip manufacturing.
Keep in mind that Apple didn't grow revenues on the first day. In fact, the first two months of iPhone launch, they only sold a few hundred thousands iPhones only.
If Gen 3 wows consumers in all aspect just as Model S, the giga factory issue becomes easier to solve. Looking at the Apple playbook, Tesla can do following.
1) Launch Gen 3 alpha/beta and a defined date of production
2) Wow the market in terms of style, specs, price
3) Create a feeling that everyone wants a Gen 3 from Camry buyer to a 3 series buyer
4) Make a reservation list of 50K (get 2.5K down) or so
5) Check market reaction, get a few B worth of funding (loans better than secondary)
6) Whatever the battery cell supply is, start production while talking with potential partners by investing in the little to increase yield
7) it does not matter if the production is supply constrained for 12-18 months as long as product & brand rocks (Check harley motorcycles for years) while focusing on ramping up.
This does not sound a huge problem to me now. The issue does remain in execution but looking at how Model S is being executed, I have full faith that Tesla can become another Apple in terms of production rampup & quality. A lot of us on this forum think that the battery supply issue needs to be addressed on the first day of Gen 3 launch. I think it needs to be fully resolved in a few years from initial production start. Earlier it gets resolved, better it is.
Another argument is that if production rampup takes longer, the competition may get a hand to come up with competitive product. That is always the case. They already know the capabilities of Gen 3 will be in terms of range and price. Launching HTC One X does not kill iPhone.