Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

I’m sure counting on the market to freak out in both directions quarter to quarter for the foreseeable future as a result of these inventory-related events Buy stock ahead of Q4 results, sell stock ahead of Q1 results. Time will tell if it really is that easy.

No - won't be easy.

For some weird reason, market reacts to earnings compared to some "consensus". If someone can change the consensus by 0.1, no one will notice. But a miss by 0.1 or beat by 0.1 will make a big difference in SP !

 

[EVNow]

Things are getting interesting: Tesla shows interest in India’s plans to build battery plants

I'd take it with a pinch of salt. Modi government is notorious about giving false information (and almost the entire media has become the puppet of the government).

 

[EVNow]

How will Tesla renting solar panels at such low prices not have a significant impact on cash flow?

Tesla Makes Solar Affordable Again With New Monthly Rental Plans | CleanTechnica

I had the same question.

I don't know whether this is subject to lease accounting or something else where they can show the revenue (financed externally).

 

[Bo Blutz]

I had the same question.

I don't know whether this is subject to lease accounting or something else where they can show the revenue (financed externally).

Exactly. Hurting cash flow is the last thing Tesla should be doing right now

 

[Stars aligned]

I had the same question.

I don't know whether this is subject to lease accounting or something else where they can show the revenue (financed externally).

Paid for in cash by the utilities and the utilities finance and get the excess electricity?
Just a thought, might be a good deal for both.

 

[dc_h]

Interesting what this Yardeni guy thinks about the economic situation. He thinks new market highs come soon and has some deep thoughts why. Must disclose though that he was dead wrong in the 2000 stock market crisis. Yardeni Research (@yardeni) | Twitter

The more high profile specialists say "this time is different", the more skeptical I get. Went thru before, and there is a too predictable sitting US president. He just can't stop until disaster happens.

It all depends on the response of the fed. We’ve already over leveraged the federal govt. Interest rates are moderately important, with the quantitative tightening more important.
I do think mortgage rates could help improve the economy next year, but if they let the inversion run on another 3 to 6 months without stimulus it’s going to get expensive and difficult to restart growth.

 

[Carl Raymond]

it’s outright dangerous to preach that economic cycles are dead.

Agreed, not dead. With the gradual lifting of the oil constraint we will eventually discover a new constraint. However it’s not so easy to think of a constraint as inflexible as the oil supply. Most resources have substitutes. Robots for labour. Aluminium for steel. Lithium from sea water. Notice how cheap energy helps promote alternatives.

Seems the economy is going to spin significantly faster before we discover the new ceiling. It’s going to feel a bit like 1900, which must have been a mind blowing experience for those who witnessed it.

 

[dc_h]

Wow guys, check it out. A new Tesla Chart! It shows that Tesla doesn’t have the best range and efficiency. The I-Feces has wayyy more range. It even has a reference link, so it has to be right. I can’t believe Tesla would make such false claims.

View attachment 443500

Starting to get to a place where Tesla needs to make some phone calls!

 

[StealthP3D]

I wouldn’t dream for a minute in saying anyone should follow this lead but it’s outright dangerous to preach that economic cycles are dead.

I haven't heard anyone claim economic cycles are dead but there is little argument that they are more muted and recover more quickly than they did in years past.

I've been investing long enough to know not to trust economic "rules of thumb" like inverted yield curves will be followed by a recession. If there is a recession it will be because due to tariffs and an inability for the major trading partners to reach (mostly) tariff-free trade agreements, not because of an inverted yield curve. Because a recession will pretty much guarantee Trumps defeat next fall, I'm banking that he will reach trade agreements with all major trading partners well before the election.

The analysts at Ark Invest have some pretty compelling historical examples of why inverse yield curves don't necessarily lead to a recession (some of the best stock market gains happened under inverted yield curve scenarios).

 

[StealthP3D]

There are a bit under 200m shares outstanding. A clever fund could buy 100% of the shares outstanding for a bit under $10b and announce to the market that they will not be making them available for sale.

It's not possible for anyone to buy 100% (or even close to that) of the outstanding shares of ANY company without causing the share price to skyrocket. And "skyrocket" would be a misnomer here, more like a Falcon Heavy.

 

[StealthP3D]

In this scenario I prefer to sit on cash and buy in near the low.

That only makes good sense if a serious recession is likely. Everything I've seen does not point to that (unless trade agreements are not signed). Once again, Trump has put himself on a stage as the center of attention. Don't bet on him not signing something that will be good enough to avoid recession. Money and power are the only things he aspires to. Do you really think he wants to leave office known as the President that caused the great recession of 2019/2020?

 

[EVNow]

That's included in OCF and FCF, but Tesla doesn't have access to that cash flow because it's pledged to financing partners.

But the profit is reduced by that amount / loss increased - so all we are doing is to reverse that. I wish Tesla maintained separate P&Ls for auto and other business - so we don't have to worry about this.

 

[Speedr117]

Wow guys, check it out. A new Tesla Chart! It shows that Tesla doesn’t have the best range and efficiency. The I-Feces has wayyy more range. It even has a reference link, so it has to be right. I can’t believe Tesla would make such false claims.

View attachment 443500

If I remember, the P3D was tested in cold weather with the heater blasting. The only explanation, other than incompetence, is the British website wanted the I-Pace to look good.

 

[EVNow]

They can make that argument but it will go nowhere against the huge resources that they are flighting against. Without question, Microsoft engaged in many anti-competitive practices but basically had very little done to them.

Its a separate topic, but one could argue it made it difficult for them to compete aggressively in later years.

Anyway, talking about Tesla and monopoly is a waste of time for next 10 years atleast.

 

[brian45011]

How will Tesla renting solar panels at such low prices not have a significant impact on cash flow?

Tesla Makes Solar Affordable Again With New Monthly Rental Plans | CleanTechnica

Rent Your Solar

• Monthly payment
• Installation costs included
• No long term contract
• Monthly payment can be canceled anytime
• If you want your system removed to restore your roof to its previous condition, it will be $1,500 to cover Tesla’s cost. Tesla does not make a profit on this
• Support and maintenance included
• Available in most utilities

Unlike SCTY's PPAs/Leases, these rentals have "No long term contract" and the "Monthly payment can be canceled any time" which might inhibit attraction of investors in Variable Interest Entities to harvest the income tax subsidies (TSLA has years/$ Billions on NOLs to carry forward so TSLA itself cannot use the subsidies.)

"Available in most utilities" currently means:
2 in Arizona
4 in California (SMUD missed the cut)
2 in Connecticutt
6 in Massachusetts
4 in New Jersey
2 in New Mexico

Total 20 utilities. Estimates of total US electric utilities are in excess of 3,000 (~150 large IOUs, ~2,000 municipals, and ~1,000 co-ops) not including federal power agencies like TVA.

The Clean Technical article states:

For my location, it nets out to $0.13/kWh, which is far better than the variable utility pricing here.
​

Residential electrical energy in Texas, which has a relatively high solar irradiance, is widely available at around $0.08/kWh
Power To Choose | Home

TSLA has liquidated damages thresholds at GF-2 , and there have been reports that Panasonic is selling to third parties solar cells produced there. The rental program may be designed to use more of those solar cells by TSLA. Anyone find even a redacted version of the TSLA-Panasonic commercial terms at GF-2?

​

 

[Causalien]

I know a car burglary is an important event in one’s life, but why post about it in the investor thread? All 14 posts on this subject have been moved here: Off topic (out of main)

I think what we can get out of it, is if tesla offers a built in HDD upgrade to store teslacam videos, they'd make money. And that thieves are catching on to the need to snatch that USB drive if they break into a tesla. Basically nullifying the effectiveness of the sentry mode entirely. It's a feature that many have claims which helped sway them in buying.

Plus it's a slow Sunday OT.

 

[capster]

It's not possible for anyone to buy 100% (or even close to that) of the outstanding shares of ANY company without causing the share price to skyrocket. And "skyrocket" would be a misnomer here, more like a Falcon Heavy.

How would anyone know if more than 100% of the shares (actual and vaporshares) weren’t already collectively in safe hands?

 

[capster]

This e-book deal may be of interest here ($1.99 as I write this, but haven’t read it):
Confessions of a Wall Street Analyst: A True Story of Inside Information and Corruption in the Stock Market|NOOK Book

 

[Singuy]

That only makes good sense if a serious recession is likely. Everything I've seen does not point to that (unless trade agreements are not signed). Once again, Trump has put himself on a stage as the center of attention. Don't bet on him not signing something that will be good enough to avoid recession. Money and power are the only things he aspires to. Do you really think he wants to leave office known as the President that caused the great recession of 2019/2020?

Trump just today thought Tim Cooks made some "good points" about how tariff is terrible for business as if he has zero clue how anything works in the world.

This guy honestly didn't think anything through due to a lack of understanding of pretty much anything and decided play chicken with China thinking they would be devastated and kneel before the great U.S of A. Some of the stuff he says on the campaign trail he actually believes like how "Mexico will pay for the wall" and how "trade war would be easy to win". Now that recession markers are scaring him shitless with China holding steady, it'll be soon for him to reverse course and call it a "win" for the U.S.

 

[Green Pete]

It's not possible for anyone to buy 100% (or even close to that) of the outstanding shares of ANY company without causing the share price to skyrocket. And "skyrocket" would be a misnomer here, more like a Falcon Heavy.

Similar things have happened before with Porche and VW only 11 years ago.
https://www.quora.com/What-are-some-of-the-greatest-short-squeezes-ever