Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[oneday]

If our masters are benevolent towards us. We probably won't have time - toiling in the fields and all that..


FCF looks low. I demand a recount.

Remember Tesla paid $230 million in bond repayments in Q4, so that would be subtracted from FCF. That would equate to a $625 million in Q4 FCF without the payment. However, I also think that this is most likely low due to the reduction in inventory and cars in transit QoQ.

 

[Fact Checking]

Remember Tesla paid $230 million in bond repayments in Q4, so that would be subtracted from FCF.

I don't think debt repayments decrease FCF.

 

[SpudLime]

Of any politics?

I would argue that this one is up there in explaining stupid politics.

OT

 

[PhaseWhite]

Not sure if this has been mentioned here but there is speculation posted by a reliable source (@verygreen) that Model 3 may be shipping already with HW3. If true this could be discussed on the earnings call and would be a positive surprise.

Tesla autopilot HW3

 

[Cherry Wine]

Wow.

"Powell says Fed is now mulling likely end to balance sheet runoff"

 

[mekberg]

Paging @SpaceCash ...

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Hmm, looks like it keeps bouncing off 306. Let see if we can break that before ER...

 

[Cherry Wine]

Does the bullish news from the Fed raise the floor for TSLA out of a negative ER? (If that were to happen) I would tend to think yes. Rising tide, and all that.

 

[oneday]

I don't think debt repayments decrease FCF.

Could certainly be wrong here and would like to know for sure. My understanding was it doesn’t effect P&L but does effect cash flow.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Hmm, looks like it keeps bouncing off 306. Let see if we can break that before ER...

I don't think a big jump into ER is necessarily a good thing. More room for downside afterward.

 

[Pezpunk]

jeez seems like people are getting pretty excited about this earnings call.

 

[Cherry Wine]

jeez seems like people are getting pretty excited about this earnings call.

Market-wide rally on FOMC comments.

 

[Unpilot]

Hmm, looks like it keeps bouncing off 306. Let see if we can break that before ER...

306 you say?....look in the rear view mirror.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Not exactly the right thread for it, but I think the Fed ending QT sooner than later is probably a bad thing for the long-term economic health of the US.

EDIT: I will say this though, if the US-China trade issues get resolved, we may see new ATHs in equities. Probably including TSLA.

 

[Lucky_Man]

OT . . . and now for your irregularly-scheduled New Mexico Tesla update...

So the senate committee hearing was today. About 30 Tesla owners showed up in the New Mexico State Capitol this afternoon. We sat there for ~2 hours while other bills were debated in the committee and then finally it was time for the very last bill on the list today... ours.

Problem: two crucially important senators on the 7-member committee had stepped out and were not present when the Tesla bill came up. Chaos and confusion ensued. Committee chairman did the classic shrug ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ -- I kid you not. I just watched him do that gesture from his committee chair seat, and it was like watching some dark comedy unfold. More like a trainwreck, really. Aides were sent off to find the two missing senators. Minutes tick by. Chair says we're gonna adjourn for 15 minutes to find the missing senators.

Fifteen minutes go by. No luck. The two missing senators were still missing. (I swear, no Hollywood screenwriter would get away with a plot like this.) So there were two choices: proceed without those two senators, and watch the bill die a gruesome death because the 3 Rs on the committee, doing the auto dealers' bidding (the dealers brought seven or eight paid lobbyists to the hearing), would have then all voted no, causing a 3-2 vote that would have instantly killed the bill. We needed a 4-3 vote to win, but with two of the four yes's not present and accounted for, forget it!

THEN we find out the two senators had just gone off to do a live radio interview with a local talk show host who was broadcasting his show live from the state capitol, interviewing state legislators. And JUST WHEN WE NEEDED THOSE TWO SENATORS, they get yanked out of the committee and they wind up yacking on the air???

Ok, think about that. It doesn't take much imagination to wonder if this was a set-up. Maybe it was just a screwup (Occam's Razor would say: yep, Keystone Kops screwup) but damn it sure felt like a set-up, felt like dealer shenanigans, who knows.

Anyway, faced with this situation, the senator sponsoring the bill did I guess what he had to do, and announced he was withdrawing the bill from consideration before the committee -- at least for today.

Now we have to wait to find out when it might get heard again. And who knows if all 7 senators will stay put and be there and vote right and do the right thing the next time the bill gets brought up (assuming it does!!!).

Man do I hate politics.

Stay tuned.

Where's the - I'm infuriated with these manipulative Greedy Obstructionist Politicians - button when you need it?!?!?

 

[KarenRei]

Geez, and I was thinking I'd be really happy if we ended up +2,5% to have some nice momentum going into the ER...

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I sold few covered calls for March $380
This is type of action I characterize as most stupid ones I've done in the past (only about once in 5 times), so if it turns out to be the case again, you're all in for a treat...

 

[Unpilot]

Geez, and I was thinking I'd be really happy if we ended up +2,5% to have some nice momentum going into the ER...

O yea of little faith.

 

[KarenRei]

I sold few covered calls for March $380

You'll be fine then.

 

[SpaceCash]

Oh man I'm starting to get those bullish tingles