I don't see how spreading this inclusion over six months would dramatically lower the peak SP. Buying would continue in the same volumes, shareholders would likely be even LESS inclined to sell, and all sorts of +macro evens could pile on. The spike might be shaved by 10-20%, but I bet avg purchase price might end up even higher.
Lets say they spread it out through 2Q.....what happens when "500k achieved" is announced? Then what about when 2021 guidance is set for 100% growth(1M)? Then what about when 4Q earnings come out? Then 1Q? Then stimulus? Then a clearer Biden agenda is announced with Green New Deal traction?
There's no way out. These clowns should've just announced inclusion with a 7 day notice like usual. They decided to get cute and now there's no turning back. I would just do one day 12/21. It's gonna cause a spike, but the alternatives could be worse.
Here's an argument that the runup will NOT be followed by a big pullback, regardless of whether inclusion is spread out:
Two groups of funds are being forced to buy TSLA: index funds and benchmarked funds. The indexers have to finish buying by a certain date and don't care much what price they pay. But the benchmarkers (who need even more shares, according to Rob Maurer) have more time flexibility and do care about the price. What will the latter group do?
They will buy before the indexers start, but slowly so they don't spike the price too much, then wait for the indexers to finish so they can catch the pullback after. But they can't wait too long or someone else will catch it before they do and drive up the price again, especially with all the catalysts coming that @TheTalkingMule mentioned. They have to buy the pullback before it gets too big.
So I think I'm gonna HODL through this whole runup and not expect much of a pullback. What am I missing?