Marketshare calculations are made when the market is saturated, or else it's just a calculation of which company will have the fastest production ramp, which is probably meaningless.
The problem with people is they can't get out of this mindset that there are X% of people who would consider EVs and that's it, so the word marketshare is thrown around as if the market is already saturated with EV buyers and people constantly get surprised to see there's continuous demand. Some people think there's X amount of tree huggers or early adopters...so once that's saturated then demand drops off.
This line of thinking is in my opinion is KIND OF RIGHT. It's very difficult to get people excited about an EV when ICE cars are pretty freaken good and pretty freaken cheap. It also doesn't require people to change their habits or needing to go very far to get broken parts fixed when the repair shop network is infinitely better than the EV repair shop network. So there has to be a hook, and that hook is not just instant torque.
Elon talked about this on Third Row that the only way he sees EV adoption happening is with autonomous. Only with these two technologies combined he thought there may be a chance of succeeding. The hook needs to be that life changing.
The good news is many countries are just straight up banning ICEs, so the hook is not really required any longer when the time comes.
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