Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

This could be true but I believe that Tesla would reduce their warranty accrual in smaller amounts over time rather than one big adjustment.
Warranty expense as a % of Sales has been dropping each year except so far in 2021, the 2% of sales is flat to 2020.
Notice that there was no blip higher with a new factory (SGH) coming on board in 2020. So I expect to see the warranty expense as a percentage of sales continue to drop as Austin and Berlin come on line.

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Thanks as always for your useful insights and always putting us neanderthals in out place!

 

[Unpilot]

Me thinks the whale went back to deep waters....no pop in SP this afternoon.

 

[StealthP3D]

Up to $8B in funding for not-so-clean Hydrogen in the Infrastructure Bill

The perfect response to that is your profile pic:

Unfortunately, this dynamic has become a repeating dynamic.

What needs to be part of the discussion is the ratio of hydrogen funding going to hydrogen research and development and that going to deploying infrastructure for dirty hydrogen. I don't care if they put $4 billion into the former but every dollar put into the latter is foolish and needs to be stopped.

 

[elasalle]

Me thinks the whale went back to deep waters....no pop in SP this afternoon.

The whale might have had a whole lot of CC's expiring today. Cashed out, boarded the boeing $727 and flew away

Green for the week

 

[RobStark]

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

First Model Y registered in NO: Tesla Registration Stats

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Actually the Model Y in question was registered already in May.

 

[StealthP3D]

This could be true but I believe that Tesla would reduce their warranty accrual in smaller amounts over time rather than one big adjustment.
Warranty expense as a % of Sales has been dropping each year except so far in 2021, the 2% of sales is flat to 2020.
Notice that there was no blip higher with a new factory (SGH) coming on board in 2020. So I expect to see the warranty expense as a percentage of sales continue to drop as Austin and Berlin come on line.

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I don't think Larry Goldberg was Tweeting about a big one-time adjustment. The $600 million is money he expects to gradually be recognized over time and drawn out of money previously reserved for warranty.

The big unknown here is warranty battery replacements. There is always a possibility, however small, that one of Tesla's battery iterations (or an undiscovered software bug) could cause a rash of unanticipated battery replacements that would reverse the trend of declining warranty expenses. However, I think it's clear that Tesla's early warranty reserves have turned out to be overly conservative so far and there is no reason to expect that to change.

It's no secret that MS wishes harm upon Tesla and also that his early short investment thesis was there would be little demand for electric vehicles. Considering these things together, it wouldn't surprise me if his strategy in making the claim about insufficient warranty claims was to encourage Tesla to prove him wrong by being really stingy with warranty claims thus cratering demand for Tesla vehicles.

Like most things MS has tried to do in the TSLA sphere, it failed spectacularly.

And thanks for the accounting summary!

 

[ggies07]

Ok ok ok, Elon's got the evil billionaire laugh down right here. Hahaha. Glad to see him a joyful mood.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

tsla-pre14a_20210813.htm

www.sec.gov

*edit: above link is to SEC filing from tesla.


Shareholder meeting Oct 7, 2021

 

[woodisgood]

Soooo, what are the rules for amending the agenda, say to add a vote for authorization of additional shares?

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Soooo, what are the rules for amending the agenda, say to add a vote for authorization of additional shares?

Yep, nothing about additional shares. Very disappointing.

 

[AquaY]

If it was 3% I would be taking a completely different strategy! No, unfortunately it's not that small a percentage, more like 17% of total, 30% of the personal account

I think the most obvious indiction of the success is that my personal portfolio has the same value now as it had at ATH in January, and that's despite drawing off some funds for the new mortgage and architect fees, and obviously with the share-price being ~30% down still, end of August I will hit my cash target, then I'll start accumulating shares with the proceeds (by selling puts, of course!)

That's an impressive run you've had. You are taking risk ( have to be) and you're doing it well.
I only started trading TSLA options in February and was cautious on commitment for the first few months.
Started really going for it only this end of June . July and August so far have been very nice to me.
I'm much less aggressive than you but I love hearing what you're doing and your thoughts.
I look forward to you hitting your mark of the $1MM for renovations

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Soooo, what are the rules for amending the agenda, say to add a vote for authorization of additional shares?

Why would there be a stock split again before we surpass ATH? If anything, expect a split in 2022 when we're over $1000/share again. But I'll just keep selling CC's to the split hopefuls I guess.

 

[AquaY]

I received this email from PSE&G ( our electric company) today.

Made me wonder if "they" (as in the powers that be) are considering the production facilities needed to continue the EV market increases enough. I hope they are planning on this more than charging stations in the infrastructure bill. I hope utility companies are being smart and looking at ways to invest in better energy production and not just sitting on the sidelines waiting for the government

 

[woodisgood]

Why would there be a stock split again before we surpass ATH? If anything, expect a split in 2022 when we're over $1000/share again. But I'll just keep selling CC's to the split hopefuls I guess.

I agree with you...it would make more sense if we're 1000+ again. If we assume that Tesla would prefer the element of surprise, the question is how to go about the authorization.

 

[Drumheller]

I agree with you...it would make more sense if we're 1000+ again. If we assume that Tesla would prefer the element of surprise, the question is how to go about the authorization.

I'd rather they get the authorization for more shares out of the way asap even if there are currently no plans for a stock split. Just knowing it is possible for a surprise stock split announcement to happen at any time might help to curtail the shady dealings in the stock market a bit. But that's also probably wishful thinking.

 

[Paul_SF]

Friday the 13th!

 

[Hock1]

Soooo, what are the rules for amending the agenda, say to add a vote for authorization of additional shares?

Very surprising. The lack of a proposal does not necessarily preclude their ability to split the shares but, unless I'm missing something, not adding to the authorized shares does seem to preclude a share dividend. Doing a split of all existing shares accomplishes the same thing, except for the fact that it would not squeeze the shorts the way the first (share dividend) split did. Interesting.

 

[goinfraftw]

It's the weekend. Happy Friday, all. I love humanity.

 

[M3Rider]

I've only ever had calls exercised when I chose to do so, all other time I just rolled the position - other than the very rare case of an early assignment, you need to be pretty careless to have your stock forcibly sold

And the ~$600k I've made so far this year in selling calls and puts rather validates the idea, I think

Nice job. I'm only showing 155k realized gains YTD from 80% selling puts/20% selling CCs.
But I had to take some losses in May and roll my puts to EOY, so these sitting at below 700 strikes will pad my gains to $400k by EOY. Have about $200k more in puts for the next year that I'm pretty sure will expire worthless and will keep selling weekly puts.

I'm more conservative re: risk though. I'm sure the numbers are laughable to many here.
My goal is to make $600k after 50% tax from selling options by June 2022 so I can exercise my 2020 calls and then I should be able to maintain the options income at an annual level of say 3x my current salary without selling any shares. Could retire any time then.
My retirement accounts have more shares than trading account and those would kick in at 59.5yo if need be.

I blew probably 5% this year on buying short term calls, you know, like great Q1 numbers haha, well, seems MMs make it a lot more difficult this year to buy short term calls.

I wish I had the money to buy 2023 calls this year, but will need all that cash in 2022, so bummer.