Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobDickinson]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1450653942938054656

 

[Nocturnal]

From Rob's Tesladaily, he couldn't find this "safety advisory" role as an official position at NHTSA. He speculates it could just be an outside position that holds no decision making power.

Probably accurate, but it's a symbol if nothing else. Appointing someone who is essentially a TSLAQ hack to "advise" the NHSTA. Hopefully the folks there are annoyed by this and it backfires.

 

[aronth5]

Robotaxis will be first in China.

Doubt, only because Tesla not getting enough data in China due to low take rate of FSD package. I still think USA still 80% probability of being first. I think NHTSA is more reasonable behind the scenes of the political theater.

It would be interesting to poll the new FSD beta testers (I am one) to see what their take is on how close FSD is for Robotaxis capability. I suspect it's lower then you might imagine now that we've used FSD across the country without skewing the results with a heavy concentration of California drives. There is great interest in the upcoming 10.3 release to get a sense of how much incremental progress will be made. Hopefully removing radar, focusing on vision and added testers will tip the pendulum towards faster improvement. My guess is we're into 2023 before Robotaxis will be a thing for regulators to seriously consider giving Tesla even a limited ok. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[CaliBear1]

NHTSA has jurisdiction only over the US and its territories. At worst, a hostile US administration can slow down Tesla's FSD release in America. Because most of the data collection from the fleet is here, this would slow things down but it's not a showstopper, because Tesla sells vehicles in dozens of countries.

Only one country needs to grant approval for the dominoes to start falling. If Canada, for instance, has robotaxis and all the benefits and the sky doesn't fall, Americans will clamor for the rules to be changed.

Sadly, China will lead the way. Again. So many lives will be lost in America because of the undue influence of all the industries being disrupted here.

 

[StealthP3D]

Elon made it pretty clear that Tesla will continue to do the right thing despite whatever is thrown at them when it comes to FSD. The show will go on...and when there's will there's a way. Lets just say I give more gravity toward Tesla's will to complete their mission than lazy government workers trying to stop them.

So true. If Elon could be stopped by a wimpy NHTSA, then SpaceX would have been stopped by the very powerful military-industrial complex that contains all space contractors who compete for NASA dollars. They tried and failed because Elon is able to use the truth and the reality on the ground to thwart politicized and monetized lies and slander. SpaceX rose from being the company of a sketchy Silicon Valley millionaire with geeky dreams to the largest and most valuable space company, the only one that can save their customers millions of dollars by landing and re-using rockets. They are, by far, the dominant way to get people and cargo into space even though their competitors and the space establishment attempted to make them out as dangerous and unsafe and politicked behind closed doors to shut them out of the club.

Even if we were to assume that people within NHTSA want to scuttle Tesla's autonomous program, it's clear that they don't stand a chance against someone like Elon who speaks from truth and has seen it all and repeatedly emerged largely unscathed.

 

[StealthP3D]

It would be interesting to poll the new FSD beta testers (I am one) to see what their take is on how close FSD is for Robotaxis capability. I suspect it's lower then you might imagine now that we've used FSD across the country without skewing the results with a heavy concentration of California drives. There is great interest in the upcoming 10.3 release to get a sense of how much incremental progress will be made. Hopefully removing radar, focusing on vision and added testers will tip the pendulum towards faster improvement. My guess is we're into 2023 before Robotaxis will be a thing for regulators to seriously consider giving Tesla even a limited ok. Hope I'm wrong.

It will probably be later than 2023 before a robotaxi network can be considered a real force to be reckoned with. As an investor, I look at autonomy as the free frosting on the cake that comes with an investment in Tesla. Most analyst's financial projections don't even include a single penny of robo-taxi revenues so it's like a free lotto ticket (except it's really just a matter of time before it's reality). And I wouldn't want to bet against Dojo! In any case, there is no good way to bet against Tesla's autonomy progress. Because even if autonomy is a total bust for the rest of the decade, TSLA will almost certainly outperform anyway.

 

[CaliBear1]

I do not get the Biden Administration. They should be welcoming Tesla since Tesla is pushing the world to go EV and green. Instead what does he do he doubles down on companies that only talk about how great they are going to be in the future whilst treating the great great trailblazer as a step-child. What the hell?

It’s becoming increasingly obvious that Biden is just a shill for unions. Once that is understood, the administration’s hostility to Tesla is perfectly understandable.

And I continue to shake my head in disbelief as this hostility, given the fact that Musk is the ultimate American dream immigrant success story. He has founded multiple companies here that employ tens of thousands of people earning solid wages making products largely made in America and he has almost single-handedly restored American prowess in manufacturing, vehicle design and innovation and re-opened the exploration of space through the private sector. But I’m not finished. He’s also leading the charge to a de-centralized power grid, which democratizes energy and will make it almost free for everyone and, perhaps even more importantly, reduce the significant vulnerability and attendant security risk highly concentrated power grids present, whether as a result of natural disasters or terrorist attacks.

Musk will go down as the most revered industrialist and visionary of all time. But not until the companies in the many industries he’s disrupting finally wither and die and take their lobbyists and corrupt pols with them.

 

[goinfraftw]

Seems like the purpose of averting climate change is all agreed upon by all the major leaders in the world...especially Biden. I suppose we'll see how COP26 plays out.

Honestly, maybe it's a matter of how and when at this point?

 

[joh01652]

Apparently Tesla is trying to stay ahead of supply chain issues wherever possible. While trying to replace the Michelins on my Model 3, I found that Tesla seems to be buying tire makers' entire production of Tesla-spec tires. Local independent tire shops claimed they couldn't order the tire at all, while a tirerack order went to Tesla Nevada rather than directly to Michelin, and quoted estimated availability at the end of this year.

Meanwhile Tesla Service gave me an estimate within 24 hours, for an appointment in about two weeks — so at least they seem to have access to stock.

Bullish.

I got a huge screw in a tire in my 20"-wheeled Y about 4 weeks ago. Had to do a 12.5 hour drive from Arizona to northern California the following week and didn't want to take a chance with a plug so went to a local independent tire shop in Flagstaff, had two new same-spec Michelins the next day.

Incidentally, I first went to a Big O Tire in Flagstaff and they said they could get me tires in a few days, but they couldn't find a price to quote me on their computers. Not wanting to wait days or get suckered into paying exorbitant prices I next called the above shop--about $200 per tire, nothing to it.

Anyway, that's my experience.

Who told you Tesla is buying tire makers' entire production of Tesla-spec tires? I hope Tesla isn't locking up tire inventory, doesn't help Tesla owners like me who don't live near a Tesla service center...

 

[StealthP3D]

Good interview of Adam Jonas on CNBC. He doesn't get everything right, but he has definitely come full circle. Once Morgan Stanley starts upping their 6M TSLA production estimate for 2030, their PT will start to take off (currently $900).

Get ready for revved up Tesla profits, Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas predicts

Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas looks ahead to Tesla's earnings. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Guy Adami, Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan and Karen Finerman.

www.cnbc.com

OMG! I think that Jonas interview just convinced a lot of the unwashed masses that they want to be TSLA investors! He presented investing in Tesla and Elon Musk pretty much as a no-brainer. Unlike most analyst interviews this one just oozed genuine sincerity. If he was pumping TSLA for nefarious means he's a lot more talented than I thought.

 

[Cattledog]

OMG! I think that Jonas interview just convinced a lot of the unwashed masses that they want to be TSLA investors! He presented investing in Tesla and Elon Musk pretty much as a no-brainer. Unlike most analyst interviews this one just oozed genuine sincerity. If he was pumping TSLA for nefarious means he's a lot more talented than I thought.

They're in on the early SpaceX/Starlink IPO discussions.

 

[StealthP3D]

Well, I did try a cursory research but couldn't find any references for that fact I mentioned re Tesla had to keep their Shanghai factory profits in China .
Left some inquiries w/ knowledgeable folks, will update when I know more.

Meantime, I offer the following opinion that it is very credible:

1 - it is indeed in the interest of China not to want the profits of Tesla sales in China leave China* (add to the USD currency IOU's of China's Central Bank). The alternative would be to siphon away CNY's (Chinese Yuans/ renminbis ) that would otherwise be used internally for Chinese domestic consumption or capital projects aka to benefit the Chinese economy.
Countries that do not impose some sort of restriction like these are Latin American countries, "banana republics" or oil rich countries like Saudi Arabia, backwards countries who fail to develop their own internal economies (and pay off opponents so they go make troubles elsewhere, like in the US)

2 - it is not detrimental at all to Tesla's growth or mission. As I said, Tesla can simply buy (in CNY's) Chinese batteries and ship them abroad where they are sorely needed in all Tesla factories. And by helping the growth /progress of Chinese EVs it accelerates the world's transition to renewables.
The cherry on the pie of the Shanghai Gigafactory is that it definitely insulated Tesla from its domestic (aka US) foes who control the capital markets via the corrupt SEC and politicians.

As to why TSLAQ would seize on this as FUD, I can only surmise that it is disinformation in the sense that it suggests restricting Tesla or showing Tesla as a China friendly villain - which it neither does /is.



(*) please feel free to correct me if anything isn't right, I'm an armchair economist, and failed to really understand most of my econ classes beyond doing the required homework/ passing tests showing I could regurgitate what was being taught

I find it difficult to assess credibility when there is no source. It would be like claiming Tesla's factory in China is not wholly owned, there is a clause in the contract that gives 50% ownership to a Chinese company closely affiliated with the Party. There is no source but it's credible because every other American auto company in China is in a joint venture with majority Chinese ownership.

However, we know Tesla struck a deal with the Chinese government that was unlike any other. Who knows if there is a clause that requires the money to stay in China? But, as you have pointed out, it doesn't really matter.

 

[Eugene Ash]

6-figure daily swings in my account are cool and all, but where's my Plaid Model X

I remember your bold 1880 leaps call . Any more recent bold moves?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Vacations are all the better when SP is turbocharged

I want a Motorhome, not an Enginehome.

 

[Thekiwi]

I do not get the Biden Administration. They should be welcoming Tesla since Tesla is pushing the world to go EV and green. Instead what does he do he doubles down on companies that only talk about how great they are going to be in the future whilst treating the great great trailblazer as a step-child. What the hell?

Chanos is a big contributor/fundraising bundler to Biden. Pretty much tells you all you need to know.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, I did try a cursory research but couldn't find any references for that fact I mentioned re Tesla had to keep their Shanghai factory profits in China .
Left some inquiries w/ knowledgeable folks, will update when I know more.

I don't have a link for you, but I do remember the discussion of this issue. So going by memory, at the time Tesla signed the loan agreement with the 4 Chinese banks, there was a provision that any money BORROWED would not be used for purposes outside China (perhaps that was not outside Giga Shanghai).

Then TSLACK of course morphed that into 'profits can't leave China' which is a joke. But that's what they also LACK, a sense of humor.

Cheers!

 

[Phobi]

NHTSA has jurisdiction only over the US and its territories. At worst, a hostile US administration can slow down Tesla's FSD release in America. Because most of the data collection from the fleet is here, this would slow things down but it's not a showstopper, because Tesla sells vehicles in dozens of countries.

Only one country needs to grant approval for the dominoes to start falling. If Canada, for instance, has robotaxis and all the benefits and the sky doesn't fall, Americans will clamor for the rules to be changed.

FSD?! Hell…we’re ready to crack down on Autopilot here up north

We’ll bring the pain, Tesla…you bring the Beta.

Btw, happy earnings day to all brothers & sisters

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I don't have a link for you, but I do remember the discussion of this issue. So going by memory, at the time Tesla signed the loan agreement with the 4 Chinese banks, there was a provision that any money BORROWED would not be used for purposes outside China (perhaps that was not outside Giga Shanghai).

Then TSLACK of course morphed that into 'profits can't leave China' which is a joke. But that's what they also LACK, a sense of humor.

Cheers!

Pretty much what I understood also. Foreign companies regularly take money out of China. It’s Chinese companies/citizens that must get approval If it’s larger amounts.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Clearly not a friend of Tesla. In a October of 2020 Forbes article / interview Missy is asked and says:

“Do you have a recent example of a time you've really pushed the perimeter?

I do it all the time with Elon Musk. I go after him regarding Autopilot. I love what he's doing at SpaceX and I love electric cars. I’m not bothered by him as a person, I just really want him to reconsider what he's doing with Autopilot because I think it's exceedingly dangerous. “


And:

“Are you excited or unnerved by the fact that most autonomous innovation is happening in the commercial domain rather than the military?

A little bit of both. I think it’s great when technology transitions away from the military into the commercial space. It’s good because it gives technology the chance to mature in a way it wouldn’t had it stayed inside the military. But the flip side is that the military government and Department of Defense contractors can’t afford to hire good talent to create capable and safe autonomous systems.”

Missionary Misfits: Meet A Former Fighter Pilot, Current Autonomous Vehicles Road Warrior

Missy Cummings is a "missionary misfit" who isn’t afraid to defy convention. In this interview, she discusses her experiences being one of the first woman fighter pilots, asking hard questions about autonomous vehicles, and taking public jabs at Elon Musk.

www.forbes.com

 

[Wicket]

Clearly not a friend of Tesla. In a October of 2020 Forbes article / interview she is asked and says:

“Do you have a recent example of a time you've really pushed the perimeter?

I do it all the time with Elon Musk. I go after him regarding Autopilot. I love what he's doing at SpaceX and I love electric cars. I’m not bothered by him as a person, I just really want him to reconsider what he's doing with Autopilot because I think it's exceedingly dangerous. “


And:

“Are you excited or unnerved by the fact that most autonomous innovation is happening in the commercial domain rather than the military?

A little bit of both. I think it’s great when technology transitions away from the military into the commercial space. It’s good because it gives technology the chance to mature in a way it wouldn’t had it stayed inside the military. But the flip side is that the military government and Department of Defense contractors can’t afford to hire good talent to create capable and safe autonomous systems.”

Missionary Misfits: Meet A Former Fighter Pilot, Current Autonomous Vehicles Road Warrior

Missy Cummings is a "missionary misfit" who isn’t afraid to defy convention. In this interview, she discusses her experiences being one of the first woman fighter pilots, asking hard questions about autonomous vehicles, and taking public jabs at Elon Musk.

www.forbes.com

not bothered with him as a person?