Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Several things set Finland apart from its Scandinavian (and Baltic) neighbors.

For example, this month after close to 10 years delay the Finnish government granted the operating license to Olkiluoto Unit 3, a PWR with a nameplate electrical power of 1600 MW.

Oh, they finally got that thing up and running? It's long been a running joke in the nuclear world For those not familiar:

Olkiluoto Nuclear Power Plant - Wikipedia

The more you read about it, the funnier/sadder it gets. One of the contracting firms was even owned by the Bulgarian mafia

 

[Fact Checking]

A microblog from weibo.com:

They delivered 10,000 in half a month.. Great internal execution. However, many friends taking delivery encountered more or less problems in their cars. The follow-up repairs might be a pitfall.

(The attached image seems a screen shot of a message from a Tesla employee):
Crazy delivery season! The whole company joined to deliver the cars to eager customers!!! Exceeded 10,000 in half a month in the country! Witnessed many colleagues became owners... Witnessed Model 3 became the next generation street car.

微博

#里程焦虑##边开边聊# 半个月交付1万台。。这内部执行力可以的。不过看着周围提车的朋友都多多少少出现了一些车的问题。这后续维修也是一个坑啊。

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Is there a timestamp visible for the original message?

Assuming that the final 2 weeks of China were much of the Q1 dekiveries, this would support @KarenRei's estimate of ~38k units going overseas: ~15k to China, ~23k to Europe.

Also, if 8 ships went to China with 15k Model 3's, that's ~1,875 Model 3's per ship. Isn't this a bit low?

 

[capster]

Sure. Can go with a good "1-2 punch" of a two tweet chain... 1st tweet along the lines of the broad general point in the tweet I shared, 2nd tweet a hard hitting data point like the two you presented. The point is not to get lost in the weeds of the million false narratives the bears won't even have an intellectually honest debate about, but, instead, hammer home that they are heavily biased players not debating but pushing programming designed to protect massive amounts of money in the "fossil fuel economy."

For literally years, there's been very basic core misinformation messaging to try to stifle the capacity to respond to the bear messaging,

1. Tesla supporters are naive, "cult" members, fan boys, fan girls, emotional "true believers"

2. Elon Musk is a narcissistic, childish, volatile, defensive, dishonest, and at times brutal head of a company teetering on bankruptcy. You 'should' dislike and distrust Musk, the company, and the cars they make.

Both points are designed to frame any conversation you might try to engage in with a FUD influenced neighbor, coworker, etc., BEFORE the conversation even begins. If you don't enter the conversation conceding much of point 2 as a given, than your neighbor in their head goes to ("oh, I got a Kool Aid drinker here" and proceeds to tune you out and simply wait for you to stop talking).

This ground has been tilled for years, and with nearly all of mass media pushing it.

Note that nobody ever accuses anyone of being a "conspiracy theorist" for dismissing virtually all longs as "true believers," "fan boys," etc. despite these claims never having been substantively backed up. There's a place for the short pithy to the point phrase that sticks in people's minds. AND, unlike the bears, if we get challenged for substance to our pithy phrase, we've got a deep strong case based on facts and reason.

Best path I see, somewhat neutralize "cult" "fanboy" etc. type messaging the simple message,

Trillions of dollars of business partnership built over a century with the "fossil fuel economy" drives media and banking to flood us all with misinformation about Tesla, Elon Musk and their products.

I'm sure some here could make that much smoother and more concise... "The Fossil Fuel Economy and Trillion Dollar Cronyism in the Media and Wall Street," "The Fossil Fuel Economy's Trillion Dollar Media and Banking Reality Distortion Field"...

The underlying details being

1. Media and Banking (WS) have massive financial conflict of interest in their "coverage" of Tesla due to their century plus business relationship with the "fossil fuel economy" where trillions of dollars have exchanged hands.

2. You've been exposed to a silly amount of media coverage about Tesla and Elon Musk, haven't you? Always doom and gloom and disaster imminent, right? [I don't know about Europe, but, in the US it's been so off the charts in volume, I'm very confident most people already have wondered why they are constantly hearing about this guy Musk and Tesla]

3. Number 2 is not an accident. Media and Banking "coverage" has a massive bias to protect the "fossil fuel economy."

Products that are much, much more than 10% better than the competition and word of mouth are Tesla’s very effective combination for breaking through the noise.

When asked if I like the car, I usually say there is a night and day difference in the handling of my Model 3D and a traditional car. I also say that it is extremely easy to drive well.

Regarding FUD, usually I don’t say more than that there are a lot of people spending a lot of money to see Tesla fail. If people have specific concerns I address them calmly with the facts.

I offer test rides or suggest people go test drive a P3D if they are interested in my car.

If people have concerns about the company, I mention that I have a decent number of shares. I will also say that part of the reason is that, based on my experience, the structure of legacy automobile companies makes it very difficult for them to compete instead of conferring any advantage.

But generally, the discussion quickly moves to the car and the practical details of using it.

Oh, I also think the prideful small smile and pitying glance when stopped in traffic is very effective, especially with BMW drivers.

 

[SteveG3]

It would be great to have a webpage with all the FUD listed in an easily searchable format with source, and a corresponding fact, figure or infographic that demonstrates how wrong it is right next to it. Then we could just refer people to that site when disputing FUD instead of generating new responses each time. Or we could create a meme for each entry showing how ridiculous the FUD claims are.

Great idea. In addition to the primary efficiency benefit you’re pointing out, we could number them and refer to them by number (and link to page you are suggesting) to convey how silly, intellectually disingenuous, fabricated, ‘trolling spread,’ so to speak, and already thoroughly debunked they are.

 

[SteveG3]

I've become a statistic of Tesla Delivery Hell.

Just happened to check my email yesterday evening and saw my delivery adviser sent a message saying my model 3 would be delivered to my home the very same evening. News was both exciting and frustrating - I knew my car was scheduled to arrive in Houston earlier that morning, but had been given no indication that it would arrive to my house the same day. The notification also came just before my delivery adviser's/Tesla's delivery offices were scheduled to close for the day. I checked the travel time between Houston and my house and stayed waiting for the driver's phone call, but never received it. Now I'm waiting for the offices to open later this morning.

The only good spin I can put on this is that I think March US deliveries might be quite high. Delivery adviser seems very busy and, well, they seem to still be in Delivery Hell. If I wasn't a shareholder, I'd be angrier than I already am. A car that I've already paid for, that was scheduled to be delivered is somewhere unknown and I can't even get in contact with Tesla to inquire about it.

Market's still closed, but TLDR for on topic: Tesla seems to be swamped with deliveries in the Gulf Coast/Texas area of US, customer service still sucks.

Perhaps in the P&D report, a thank you to worldwide employees, and a thank you and apology to any customers who experienced some very rough overtaxed delivery & communication processes. Want both groups to know their cooperation was critical to Tesla overcoming some very long odds in rising well above the expectations and ready barbs of its many self-appointed critics. Serious suggestion.

 

[samppa]

Oh, they finally got that thing up and running? It's long been a running joke in the nuclear world For those not familiar:

Olkiluoto Nuclear Power Plant - Wikipedia

The more you read about it, the funnier/sadder it gets. One of the contracting firms was even owned by the Bulgarian mafia

Yes. It's claimed to have become the second most expensive building on earth, right after Pentagon.

Regarding EVs, my experience of Finns is quite positive. I drive a model S, and people are quite interested, questions are positive, people are just not well informed - they think charging takes always at least many hours, and don'tknow about fast chargers. Many people would like to buy an ev, but feel they are still very expensive. Median car price is like 3500€ and 10 years old is still quite fresh..

 

[EVNow]

I don't want to restrict his first amendment rights. He would still be able to express himself on twitter. He's not gonna be CEO forever, 2 years tops. Could announce it now to through cold water on any SEC attempt to remove him.

None of the successful founders quit being CEO until their company was firmly #1 in the industry and very profitable - Gates, Ellison et al.

I expect Musk to move to a non-CEO position when Tesla is #1 in the auto industry (2035 ?).

 

[KarenRei]

None of the successful founders quit being CEO until their company was firmly #1 in the industry and very profitable - Gates, Ellison et al.

I expect Musk to move to a non-CEO position when Tesla is #1 in the auto industry (2035 ?).

You misspelled "2025"

 

[AndyH]

One of the countries that's really interesting to get numbers from tomorrow is Denmark. The various taxes and fees on new cars are as high in Denmark as they are in Norway and there are big subsidizes on EVs that will get even bigger in 2020.

Model 3 LR AWD is cheaper than a bog standard BMW 320i right now in Denmark. 442k vs 465k of Danish krone. When the Model 3 SR arrives it will clean house, especially in 2020.

 

[SteveG3]

There are, I think, two different audiences for this type of piece.
1) Investors
2) New potential car buyers

I’m more interested in 2). Folks that never really considered buying a Tesla (like myself six months ago) are not particularly interested in manufacturing margins, debt/income, etc. A few things that they might (I did) find of interest (this is rather USA-centric):

a) Current Tesla sales compared to other EVs
b) Current Tesla sales compared to in-class ICEs
c) Current pricing
d) NHTSA safety findings
e) Anti coal-burning narrative
f) Easily understood measure of company solvency and growth
g) Size and growth of Supercharging network and ease of at-home charging
h) Servicing availability

a)-e) say: these are popular, affordable, safe, environmentally-friendly cars.
f)-h) address orphanage and range anxiety (h is the toughest IMHO)

When my wife mentioned she had seen more and more Teslas driving around town, this is the research *I* did. I can’t for the life of me figure out why Tesla doesn’t put this kind of FAQ page on their website.

Yes. It’s a balance of to some extent refuting “content” the bear sandbox has been pumping out, but, not falling for having the debate being defined as the bear sandbox and have our efforts become exhausted and sunk in those sands.

I.e., putting a very large emphasis that a campaign with a financial conflict of interest has created a very widespread and false perception that their grossly distorted and often outright false depiction of Tesla, Musk, is common knowledge. It isn’t. It is privately funded programming fabricated little fantasy world designed to divert the public from appreciating the reality of what Tesla is offering. Quite similar to, “oh smoking’s just fine. I’m a doctor and I enjoy a nice smoke, no reason for you not to as well,” tobacco industry programming of a few decades back.

 

[Fact Checking]

One of the countries that's really interesting to get numbers from tomorrow is Denmark. The various taxes and fees on new cars are as high in Denmark as they are in Norway and there are big subsidizes on EVs that will get even bigger in 2020.

Stupid question: where will this monthly registrations data be posted?

 

[S3XY]

This looks important:

ValueAnalyst Retweetade
YUAN TALKS‏ @YuanTalks 41 minför 41 minuter sedan


#BREAKING #China will extend the 3-month suspension of additional tariffs on #US-made vehicles and auto parts, which expires on Mar 31 2019, the tariff committee of the State Council said on Sunday.

0 svar 37 retweets 22 gillanden

And with just one more 3 month extension after this one and the Model 3's should be rolling out from GF3 and the tariff issue is history!

 

[KarenRei]

More cryptic Elon tweets. This time it's just "Jung", and a link to quotes from Carl Jung:

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[MikkoJ]

Interesting. At least while the markets are closed, feel free to speculate why the EV sentiment in Finland is so different from e.g. Denmark, Sweden and Norway.

OT then

Looking from Fin perspective as I've not dig into other cultures and politics:
IMO the government is not interested. On some statements maybe, but not really.

Like FC said there's some auto industry, battery and robotics. How terrified are we, subconsciously or not. Though compared to Sweden's (CHN/Geely's) Volvo I'd see it way, way smaller, having a lot less history and attachment.

Most counter arguments here stress the range anxiety. And each and every argumentation I've had has revolved solely around headline fud. We know it's pointless, no-one's going to learn anything new or helpful let alone positive. Surely there are reasons to blindly believe mass media, yes?

Humm.. not getting anywhere.. would not like to point to too many negatives either. It's not everyone. Maybe when Finns take it to heart, maybe the change can/will be quick. Still hopeful!

 

[EVNow]

And with just one more 3 month extension after this one and the Model 3's should be rolling out from GF3 and this issue is history!

There will still be the issue of S&X and higher trim 3s.

 

[samppa]

OT then

Looking from Fin perspective as I've not dig into other cultures and politics:
IMO the government is not interested. On some statements maybe, but not really.

Like FC said there's some auto industry, battery and robotics. How terrified are we, subconsciously or not. Though compared to Sweden's (CHN/Geely's) Volvo I'd see it way, way smaller, having a lot less history and attachment.

Most counter arguments here stress the range anxiety. And each and every argumentation I've had has revolved solely around headline fud. We know it's pointless, no-one's going to learn anything new or helpful let alone positive. Surely there are reasons to blindly believe mass media, yes?

Humm.. not getting anywhere.. would not like to point to too many negatives either. It's not everyone. Maybe when Finns take it to heart, maybe the change can/will be quick. Still hopeful!

Remember that new car tax for EVs was just lowered to 2,7%, so at least government is doing something.. and EV subsidy is 2k€ but only applies to cars costing less than 50k€.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Apple just cancelled their wireless charging pad because the engineering was too difficult. It was shown 2 years ago. Are you sure 5 years? A car seems more difficult. Maybe Samsung can do it in 5 years

Samsung Galaxy Auto, judging from the pace of updates to their phones, we can expect a new feature every year or so!

 

[samppa]

Does this mean shorts get the same requirements?

I have no idea, sorry..

 

[EVNow]

You misspelled "2025"

That is possible if the ICE industry collapses because of a recession. Tesla just can't scale up that fast, otherwise.

If the current car volumes don't change much, I expect Tesla to be producing about 10M a year by 3035 and #1.

If the market contracts so that Tesla will be #1 with 5M/yr volume, that can happen earlier - though it would still be 10x the current volume and thus will need 10 more giga factories to be built … in 10 years.

 

[S3XY]

Love the format. Sad that it was last updated 5 months ago.

Well, in fairness they could pretty much get away with adding at the bottom " Rinse and repeat".