Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[unk45]

His interest isn't in Twitter. The focus of his interest is the dream he had for X.com from back in his PayPal days.

He has already said that acquiring Twitter gets him to his goal about three years quicker than would starting from scratch.

Anyone who thinks he wants Twitter simply for the dumpster fire it currently is underestimates the value to Elon of starting the project with a large, diverse, and established user-base to jump start into a greater plan.

Or, maybe because he has done so poorly with SpaceX, Tesla, Boring Co., etc. it is easy to presume he doesn't have a clue and to discount his vision as being just another flash in the pan like these others?

O ye of little faith.

Did Elon not do well with X.com(PayPal) back then? Did he not fund SpaceX with profits from sale of PayPal? how can anybody imagine he hasn't a clue? One would need to have really serious ignorance to assume that. As you say, he has done so poorly...

BTW you forgot the /s, although it was obvious to the non-oblivious.

 

[jw934]

A day trader compared 2022 returns if bought TSLA at the close then sell at 11AM the next day, vs the opposite trade - buy at 11:00AM and sell at the close on the same day.

The author had this other interesting TSLA chart on average time-of-day trade returns for 2022 .

Source: substrack.com

 

[SOULPEDL]

So many other things bode well for Tesla, that I'm not particularly concerned about the Twitter thing, however it pans out.

Elon has admitted to many missteps in the past. From basing the original Roadster on a Lotus design rather than starting from a clean sheet, to attempting ablative cooling on the bell nozzles of his early rockets, among others. With a bit of hindsight for perspective, I expect he'll freely admit that his Twitter buyout offer was just another such misstep.

I do like how some feel he made a mistake in getting involved in Twitter - I think that helps his case in court for a clean withdrawal on new evidence lately. He might even admit it to play along. Oops.

I'm in the camp that Elon believed the escape hatch with parachute was one of the successful outcomes possible. He could take it or leave it either way. But the goal was always to cure it of Bot-itis simply because that interfered with his mission by ~3 yrs. And the only way to legally get the data out of Twitter (as needed to expose the root problem) was to buy it in good faith.

I think the best path forward is to not purchase Twitter but still clean it up and monitor it somehow, maybe get on the board for a huge discount. I would imagine most of us here would also like to move on from all the Twitter fluctuations and noise. I bet MMs love it and milk every headline.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

A day trader compared 2022 returns if bought TSLA at the close then sell at 11AM the next day, vs the opposite trade - buy at 11:00AM and sell at the close on the same day.

View attachment 847403

The author had this other interesting TSLA chart on average time-of-day trade returns for 2022 .
View attachment 847406

Source: substrack.com

Cool chart. I'm going to keep this in mind next time I make a trade. Though I don't see any trading in my near future.

 

[JimS]

Why are we likely going to make plenty of money with our TSLA investments? This article from Reuters is a prime example of how Wall Street and the media simply cannot wrap their minds around what a money-making machine Tesla is becoming and what a giant it is set to grow into. For this reason you don't see growth estimates of earnings growing at 50-60% annually between now and 2030, the estimates are far lower because Wall Street has never experienced anything like Tesla before in such an enormous market that it is quickly taking over. As long as the market makers and others manipulate TSLA to keep it within a desired trading range, as long as Elon's selling of TSLA shares remains a recent memory, as long as institutional investors hold a minority of shares, as long as the credit rating companies are giving Tesla junk rating for its bonds, as long as the media speaks despairingly about Tesla, and as long as the market has investors scared about a terrible recession that will likely never come, the stock is on sale at a significant discount. As these weights fall away, and they all will soon enough, the stock can enjoy more breathtaking rallies to much more attractive valuations. All this growth doesn't even take into account future full self driving, Tesla Bot, and Tesla energy revenues (which could actually eclipse the vehicle revenues). Please stick around to enjoy that ride.

Thank you @Papafox, I was just about to give up and sell it all.

(/s, for those of you who don’t know me)

 

[SOULPEDL]

A day trader compared 2022 returns if bought TSLA at the close then sell at 11AM the next day, vs the opposite trade - buy at 11:00AM and sell at the close on the same day.

View attachment 847403

The author had this other interesting TSLA chart on average time-of-day trade returns for 2022 .
View attachment 847406

Source: substrack.com

11:30, got it.
This might not continue but, then again, MMDs are still a thing.

(Edit: The big caveat is that this strategy puts you out of TSLA stock nearly 1/2 the time, every night from close to 11 AM, out. Probability is high that you completely miss the run up (or lose like crazy continuing the same game while rising). Mistake to do IMO, just interesting. Now thinking a Short or MM did this study.)

 

[Mengy]

A day trader compared 2022 returns if bought TSLA at the close then sell at 11AM the next day, vs the opposite trade - buy at 11:00AM and sell at the close on the same day.

View attachment 847403


Source: substrack.com

That's a nice graphical representation of how the MM's walk the stock down nearly daily in the afternoons. Buy at the end of the afternoon when TSLA is typically lowest after the walk down, let it gap up in after hours when the MM's aren't manipulating so much, and then sell at the next day open before the MM's get their walkdowns into gear.

I did a pattern similar to this last year in my "fun" account with day trading TSLA and while it doesn't work every day, I did net a nice positive. Haven't bothered with day trading much this year, maybe I need to dabble with it again...

 

[UncaNed]

There is growing evidence GDP has been understated and will be revised upwards ~3%.

View attachment 847376

The US economy has been massively outperforming its other advanced contemporaries, probably by the largest margin since WWII… Honestly, Europe and Japan are getting flat out left in the dust by the US. Also will help that US wind and solar resources are massively superior.

...meaning what effect on TSLA price?

YAY for the US economy, but won't the countries getting left in the dust dragging the world economy down drag the stock market down, so that the US's outperformance won't translate to a corresponding TSLA stock price rise?

 

[growler23]

WOW
If you only have 3 minutes to watch/listen. Go to 12:55 - 15:55. Absolutely amazing.
I would summarize it but I wouldn't do it Justice

I realize that Joe Justice videos get posted here from time to time, and he isn’t everyone’s cup of tea. Nonetheless, if you haven’t watched one of his videos, here’s a good one which fairly briefly summarizes how Tesla (and SpaceX) is run with no managers in an agile/mob system.

I just watched it, and will reiterate for the group: the way Tesla is organized internally is apparently radically flat, radically empowering of each employee, radically fast in terms of development cycles, and their "bottom line" against which employees are held accountable in real time is (paraphrasing): ratio of "days closer to worldwide transition to sustainable transport" divided by CapX+OpX to get there. The real-time calculation of this "bottom line" is apparently done by AI in conjunction with teams who describe their value proposition to the AI when the AI notices them working on something in a group, and displayed in the digital self-management (phone based) tool as well as on monitors in the buildings. Holy crap that is cool.

Perhaps this helps explain why their technology lead does not seem to be shortening as well as why a lot of folks want to work there.
It's a long video, as mentioned, but pretty mind blowing to this old engineer / former team manager anyway. As a fellow investor, I humbly ask: Please watch it.

I also note several folks mentioned the "60 new parts per day" idea - I will say that Justice follows that up with "that same day 61 parts are supposed to be eliminated" (again paraphrased) as it is everyone's job to reduce and simplify. They get by with this level of change (reportedly) with good old engineering practice of standard interfaces between parts (software and hardware), backed up by whole-car self testing/reporting of test results.

Yes, after watching it I admit I took advantage of the dip and some spare couch change.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

275 solidly broke now, 255 here we come.

 

[SOULPEDL]

275 solidly broke now, 255 here we come.

Where's that "You are here" image that gets posted occasionally?
Oh, this one will work.

 

[2daMoon]

275 solidly broke now, 255 here we come.

Oh goodie! A serving of dip could make for a tasty snack this morning.

Some spare change has become available (sold meager Ark holdings) and am waiting on the broker to free the funds.

I've been looking for some new chairs, and have found a set on sale that ought to fit nicely into the current collection!

HODL

 

[SOULPEDL]

Cool looking concept car from Polestar was popular ($25K deposit, 500 reserved, 2026). But what about the safety part?

There's no way you'd survive a rollover in a Polestar 6 (unless it somehow ejects a B Pillar or roll bar). Tesla Roadster has a big roll bar on top. Doesn't say the price.

Polestar 6 LA Concept edition sells out in one week

Reserving a Polestar 6 LA Concept edition required a $25,000 deposit, but that was apparently no concern for potential owners.

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[Mengy]

Where's that "You are here" image that gets posted occasionally?
Oh, this one will work.

View attachment 847419

I prefer this one:

 

[Drezil]

275 solidly broke now, 255 here we come.

Thank you for your prediction. Turned around and just broke 275 again

now i just need to time the top again to put in my downward-insurances ..

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Where's that "You are here" image that gets posted occasionally?
Oh, this one will work.

View attachment 847419

I feel like I have to put a disclaimer "All thoughts/musing relating to short term price action is are just that......thoughts/musing. Not indicative on long term value"

In the short term, the trading before, at, and after the stock split has been downright terrible. Any retail investor that was playing options around the stock split got roasted.

Seems pretty clear to me hedge funds are going to push hard as they can to drop TSLA as far as they can before we get the Q3 P/D numbers. Someone can be incredibly bullish about the value of a company long term and still call out how it's trading like a dog in the short term. I mean we've had what 4 straight down days since the split? Not a single green day.

Have the markets been terrible during that time? You betcha. But all strength the stock was showing on Friday is now gone and it's back to underperforming.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Thank you for your prediction. Turned around and just broke 275 again

now i just need to time the top again to put in my downward-insurances ..

Sure.....watch as it gets capped at 275-276 while the macro's recover and then drop hard when the macro's pull back lol

We've seen this playbook time and time and time again.

 

[Drezil]

Sure.....watch as it gets capped at 275-276 while the macro's recover and then drop hard when the macro's pull back lol

We've seen this playbook time and time and time again.

i know, i know. exactly what i'm betting on.

if TSLA gives me a sell-signal & qqq is not bullish anymore position gets reopened. if i get a buy-signal & qqq hold the resistance at 300 again .. i close.. rinse, repeat.

Sadly i am still bad at timing the market, but manage to close my mistakes pretty fast - or have a "long term" plan b ..

 

[Singuy]

Sure.....watch as it gets capped at 275-276 while the macro's recover and then drop hard when the macro's pull back lol

We've seen this playbook time and time and time again.

Orrr 275 was the double bottom for that higher low the market is looking for.

 

[larmor]

Cool looking concept car from Polestar was popular ($25K deposit, 500 reserved, 2026). But what about the safety part?

There's no way you'd survive a rollover in a Polestar 6 (unless it somehow ejects a B Pillar or roll bar). Tesla Roadster has a big roll bar on top. Doesn't say the price.

Polestar 6 LA Concept edition sells out in one week

Reserving a Polestar 6 LA Concept edition required a $25,000 deposit, but that was apparently no concern for potential owners.

driveteslacanada.ca

This is actually very important news. Tesla has paved the way and people are now excited about EVs. Car afficionados are now drifting (pun intended) to EVs and I hope polestar can get it done. The car market is huge, and tesla really needs 10 factories of their own working full time to just address a small segment of the auto market.