Blind Faith!
$4T market cap for Tesla is not hard to arrive at. Here goes:
Revenue in 2022 ~$84B
Annual growth rate 50% for 8 years
Revenue in 2030 $2.15T = $84B×1.5^8
Profit margin 10%
Earnings in 2030 $215B
Price/Earnings ratio 20X
Market Cap $4.3T
These are identical assumptions from the original Blind Faith Price Target of $700B for 2025, only difference is starting at 2022 with $84B in revenue and looking out to 2030.
When Musk says that he sees a path, I take that to mean that he sees more than enough product opportunity to keep growing revenue at 50% per year for another 8 years. And furthermore this portfolio of products excludes Optimus.
I'll leave it to others to speculate about a product mix that hits $2T in revenue in 2030. I am sure there are multiple paths for Tesla.
This time Blind Faith is not so blind. We actually have the track record of 50%+ annual revenue growth from about 2013 onward. We know that Musk and Tesla can handle this pace of growth. We also know that Tesla sits on a product pipeline that has much more potential than what 50% annual growth can realize. How long have we been waiting for the Semi, Cybertruck, and Roadster. These could have been brought to market sooner, if Tesla had had the bandwidth and supply chain for it. There's plenty of pent up demand just waiting for Tesla to bring it to market. I am quite willing to believe that Tesla has more product opportunity for the next 8 years than it can realize growing at only 50% per year. That's how it's been for the last 8 years, and I see no reason why it can't continue another 8 years. Musk sees a path.
Believe it!
