JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Sure but if it's lower than market expectations the stock will probably still get punished in the short term.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Did the (well played BTW) mere 20% loss include costs of any capital gains owed for the transactions involved to achieve it?
They need to price in the recession before they can price in the pivot.I love the overall reasons for the daily stock market decline per Wall Street. Now the reason we are down, today at least, is because the economy is showing signs of slowing and weakness - per the Fed's wishes. I thought bad news was actually good news for the stock market.We certainly live in interesting times.
They don't have a clue in the end. Which leads to selling until they decide everything too cheap unless end of world.
Keep Twitter out of this thread. Period.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
ok I heard the same call and went back and listen to it. There is some ambiguity as Elon says we "will meet the requirements" but does not give the timeline and Zach states they are waiting for the treasury guidance.
My take was they would do everything they needed to meet the requirements at some point in the future but it was not clear when. I hope I am wrong as it will be a huge competitive advantage to Tesla. GM has already stated they only expect $3750 in 2023 and the full credit by mid decade.
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Record production is one thing.
Beating expectations by far is what is expected for a possible bump in the stock from last earnings results it seems
Based on the analysts notes that have come out in the past 2-3 weeks, I'd say expectations for deliveries are more in the 400-410k range. Even the bullish analysts that came out with notes with still with Buys on the stock have very low delivery expectations.
From my brokerage's newsfeed:
1026 ET - US auto-safety regulators have launched an investigation into the autonomous-driving system used by General Motors' driverless-car unit, after receiving reports of vehicles engaging in inappropriately hard braking or stalling out while on public roads. The probe represents the latest challenge for Cruise, which is pushing ahead to develop a viable business model as rivals have stepped back from autonomous driving. Cruise said it's cooperating with regulators. ([email protected]; @RyanFelton)
Federal Safety Regulators Investigating GM's Cruise Driverless Unit -- Market Talk
Today 10:26 AM ET (Dow Jones)1026 ET - US auto-safety regulators have launched an investigation into the autonomous-driving system used by General Motors' driverless-car unit, after receiving reports of vehicles engaging in inappropriately hard braking or stalling out while on public roads. The probe represents the latest challenge for Cruise, which is pushing ahead to develop a viable business model as rivals have stepped back from autonomous driving. Cruise said it's cooperating with regulators. ([email protected]; @RyanFelton)
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I expect the Closing Cross volume to be heavy today due to the S&P 500 rebalancing. Hedge funds may try to take advantage of this forced liquidity in shares to acquire at discount prices. Would be unlike them to cover their shorts with these new shares though. c.f. parable of the scorpion and the frog.
P.S. We've been hugging the Lower-BB for the past 20 min:
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My shares went down 60% but 33% out of 60 was absorbed by my hedges.
I'm working on my bot sniffing skills... this one looks human
Some on TMC... I gotta wonder when they fly in like Paul Revere with some BS, then laughed out of the room, never to be seen again. So is this possible? (No hidden meaning, I'm just curious since we were discussing it recently.)
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
It seems to me that MSM advertising isn't viable until production exceeds demand to a degree that word of mouth is no longer enough to get the job done. At that point, sure, it could be another logical alternative.
To do so now could drive up demand, leading to higher pricing and longer wait times bringing frustration for buyers who were influenced by the ads and cannot act upon the impulse to achieve instant gratification the way they have become accustomed to.
There is much to be considered and so far Tesla have played it superbly. Letting the FUD run on with an "I don't care" attitude from Tesla will, over time, remove the stigma as the buyers become desensitized to it.
FUD is a current example of the age-old stories like "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" and "Chicken Little" is it not?
Having control of his new company gives him the advantage of being able to Flip the Bird to the MSM. So to speak. (plus, there is so much more to that acquisition which folks don't seem to be picking up on, yet)
cliff harris
Member
Sure, but in the long run (which as actual investors is the only view that matters), its still great news. When I look at the growth curve in terms of number of new Teslas that hit the road each quarter, I don't really care if it impresses short-term traders who are only looking QoQ. Tesla's production is huge, and growing every single quarter. We are definitely already at a run-rate of over 1.6million Tesla's per year.
I think a lot of stock analysts get very obsessed with if Tesla meets guidance or misses guidance by some small amount, and totally forgets that the guidance is stupidly, amazingly, shockingly high. They need to take more time to study this chart:
Even if the deliveries was a SHOCKINGLY AWFUL 350,000, its still darned good!
even record deliveries will be met with skeptism - because of price cuts.
So we will really have to wait till earnings and % margins ...(10K + price increase last year, 2K discounts = 8K increase .... but all thinking of just the 2K discounts
)
I see a lot of people conflating 2 messages:
A. "You are hungry because Elon&Twitter" and
B. "You are angry because you are losing money".
A =/= B.
I can only speak for myself but for me is A.
A is the making me worry that Elon is damaging the stock (short-term), but that I can survive easily. I actually bought more. There are pros and cons about a low SP, and I hope retails (and Tesla workers) can actually buy more at a discounted price.
But A is also making me worry that Elon is damaging the Tesla brand more long-term.
The pedo guy was one tweet. The covid ones were a handful (and there were retractrions).
Now, everyday we have something. Communication-wise, this is a proper multi-week sugarshow. There's no why around it.
Elon used to work at least 50 hours at Tesla (and 50 at SpaceX, on average), now we don't even know if his activity reaches 10 hours per week, which probably are mostly spent in remote meetings from SF Twitter office.
As a shareholder, we are entitled to question what the CEO is doing with his very well paid time¹, right?
¹ Compensation plan included, of course.
A. "You are hungry because Elon&Twitter" and
B. "You are angry because you are losing money".
A =/= B.
I can only speak for myself but for me is A.
A is the making me worry that Elon is damaging the stock (short-term), but that I can survive easily. I actually bought more. There are pros and cons about a low SP, and I hope retails (and Tesla workers) can actually buy more at a discounted price.
But A is also making me worry that Elon is damaging the Tesla brand more long-term.
The pedo guy was one tweet. The covid ones were a handful (and there were retractrions).
Now, everyday we have something. Communication-wise, this is a proper multi-week sugarshow. There's no why around it.
Elon used to work at least 50 hours at Tesla (and 50 at SpaceX, on average), now we don't even know if his activity reaches 10 hours per week, which probably are mostly spent in remote meetings from SF Twitter office.
As a shareholder, we are entitled to question what the CEO is doing with his very well paid time¹, right?
¹ Compensation plan included, of course.
This is surprising in light of the posts here I have seen that there is no available inventory ?Tesla now offering 2,000-4,000 euro discount in europe for December delivery of inventory vehicles.
Tesla offering discounts up to €4,000 on Model 3/Y purchases from existing inventory in Europe
Tesla has introduced incentives in many markets in December in an attempt to sell as many cars as possible before the end of the year. The latest offer from Tesla is in Europe where the […]driveteslacanada.ca
I am braced for Q4 numbers, please prove it wrong !
MM's/Shorts seem very persistent and intent on taking out all the stop losses at $150. Lots of repeated attempts so far in between capping it below $152 to prevent a breakout. If they do take it out, maybe we can finally get enough buyers interested to rip it back up towards $160.
sentiment ..
all the good news is flying under the radar
Semi, Mexico GF, No China stoppage, 3K Austin production etc ...
... and the question again to ask is WHY?t
(We don't know - is that gonna be the answer ) : )
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