Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

Here’s the source.

Here's Who Owns Tesla Now That Elon Musk Is Selling Out​

• MATT KRANTZ
• 11:11 AM ET 12/16/2022

Vanguard has been aggressively buying. It now owns nearly 60% more Tesla stock than it did two years ago. Vanguard continues to be the top buyer of Tesla stock.

And next up is BlackRock, another giant in the ETF industry. The company owns 171 million shares of Tesla, accounting for 5.4% of the company's shares outstanding. BlackRock's iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) is the third-largest holder of Tesla stock after SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ).

And like Vanguard, BlackRock is aggressively adding Tesla shares. Its number of shares held is up nearly 46% in two years' time.
…
Big institutions now own more than 44% of Tesla's stock. Most of those owners are traditional investment managers. Individuals like Musk only own 14.9%, a vast majority which is Musk himself. The only other large individual investor is Oracle (ORCL) founder Larry Ellison. Public investors like state pensions own the balance of the shares, totaling 41% of the company.

Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence, IBD​

Here's Who Owns Tesla Now That Elon Musk Is Selling Out

Entrepreneurs sell out stock eventually, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk is no different.

www.investors.com

So big institutions 44%, public investors like state pensions 41%, individual investors 14,9% of which Elon, Larry and Leo hold the most. Where does that leave us as a collective? Retail is puny, we’re holding just a few crumbs.

 

[nativewolf]

Hows that any different from any stock that's down right now? Wanna talk pissed off, imagine you work for Rivian and you have thousands of worthless shares?

Sure them too. The management team is clueless.

The big difference is that the ceo of the company is not selling stock in such a way as to hurt the share price.

 

[unk45]

That dude has been asked numerous times by those who are non native English speakers to drop this. Well, it has actually intensified.

As the saying goes stupid people are enticed by complex things. Human nature I guess.

Just imagine being English and reading Flemish dialect.

IMHO the vast majority of 'arcane in English' words 'that dude' uses are of latin origin, although some of them came to English from various indo-European tongues. How is it that using language properly is somehow inhibiting civil discourse? He's short on memes, to be sure but memes "meme \MEEM\ noun. 1 : an idea, behavior, style, or usage that spreads from person to person within a culture"
By definition those are unintelligible to the uninitiated and often misleading to those who think they understand.
As for "...stupid people are enticed by complex things" is not that inherently illogical?
Your last line also reflects a certain lack of context. Flemish is an amalgamation of dialects with lexicographical differences that are sometimes vast (look it up). English is quite the same. A native English speaker from, say, West Virginia mountains will probably not understand anything at all with a native English speaker from, say, Chennai while neither one will understand much from a typical native English speaking Cockney.

The point is simple. Dumbing down language and using memes and other colloquial forms is intended linguistically to enhance us-vs-them.

I hope, perhaps vainly, that we all try to communicate with each other here using standard English language words that facilitate use of standard translation tools and dictionaries.
We are all from quite different backgrounds linguistically.
The topic of your ire is a person who uses words that are contained in dictionaries and can easily be understood by nearly anyone with a simple search. No so with many of the colloquial forms, many of which mean entirely different things depending on cultural context. In this forum cultural context is not commonly held.

If I emphasize this excessively it is perhaps because much of the posts here are unintelligible to me and are not easily deciphered with a simple search. Mostly I think my English may be adequate, albeit with typo -laden posts.

So if Audie should 'cool it' with correct word usage how about other people 'cool it' with memes typically used by people with possibly limited vocabularies in the English language.

 

[mongo]

Curious what thoughts Mathias tweet generates.

Bradford Ferguson is in the comments section with a video disagreeing with the analysis/conclusion. Certainly a variety of opinions out there.

One thing is for sure…this either is the bottom, or it is not. You heard it here first!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603556940902187008

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603857492949229581

Mathias's calculation ignores that Elon needs to pay for the basis and taxes at exercise somehow and the most likely (only?) way is to sell part of the new shares just like with the 2012 plan.
Taking that into consideration, Elon wants to execute at the highest price possible which, hopefully, is somewhere toward the 2028 deadline (a nice up slope).
This is the most dollars in tax but yields the most dollars in his pocket.

I’m curious if there is any chance that the IRA doesn’t passed or gets delayed. I got the feeling it was basically a done deal; yet people are screaming about demand issues.

It feels like the impacts are getting discounted across most of the likely beneficiaries. Like Wall Street knows something we don’t.

I can’t square this in my head.

IRA was passed. Laws 'can' be changed.
Still waiting on Treasury guidance.

 

[Christine69420]

Hmm lets see:
Chicken sold short TSLA at 270
Elon sold TSLA at 165 and pushed us to new lows

Chicken covered his short at 200
Elon doesnt buy back his shares

I wonder whos been creating more damage to the stock? Yet you defend one and call the other a narcisist. Interesting.

Making money selling stocks is not a narcissistic trait.

Bragging about how clever you are is.

 

[SN_8]

I mean, it dropped 25% in one week. I am sure it will not go up 50% next week te recover that loss.

That's not how it works. +50% would bring us to 225.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

The big difference is that the ceo of the company is not selling stock in such a way as to hurt the share price.

If we assume that Elon needs to sell a certain number of shares, how can he do that as to not hurt the share price? I don’t see any options.

- Spread his sales over a longer time period? That will result in front-running and also weigh down the SP for a longer period.
- Sell to institutions or banks with a discount? That will lead to selling pressure as soon as those institutions and banks try to get rid of those shares (to make a profit).
- Announce he is done selling? He cried wolf too many times so investors will not believe him anymore. And the SEC probably doesn’t allow it anymore.
- Sell to Tesla (as part of a share buyback program). Can you imagine the huge amount of FUD that would cause about Tesla ‘bailing out’ Elon.

 

[OrthoSurg]

If we assume that Elon needs to sell a certain number of shares, how can he do that as to not hurt the share price?

- Spread his sales over a longer period of time? That will result in front-running and also weigh down on the SP for a longer period.
- Sell to institutions or banks with a discount? That will lead to selling pressure as soon as those institutions and banks try to get rid of those shares (to make a profit).
- Announce he is done selling? He cried wolf too many times so investors will not believe him anymore. And the SEC probably won’t allow it anymore.
- Sell to Tesla (as part of a share buyback program). Can you imagine the huge amount of FUD that would cause about Tesla ‘bailing out’ Elon.

The only way I see what he could have done is to sell 100M worth of TSLA every time the SP reaches a target. Let’s say you sell 100M worth of TSLA near the close of every trading day it’s about to close above 250 or 300, then front runners can’t sell before you all the way to $150 because they see you won’t sell below a certain point. Of course this would cap the stock and you might need more time to sell your shares but that the only way I see a way to prevent putting -50% pressure on the stock and destroying your investors confidence. I don’t like seeing Leo and Ross Gerber turning against Elon, this is not good publicity. A long as Vanguard and Blackrock funds do not turn their back on TSLA, we should not see double digit stock price. I wish us all it never happens.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TL;dr REUTERS lied for their own financial gain.

SS/dd for Roto-REUTERS w. yet another in a series of embarrasing and/or willfully inaccurate Tesla articles:

"Exclusive: PepsiCo to roll out 100 Tesla Semis in 2023, exec says"​

Some of the numerous specious claims in this article are that:

• Semi has 450 miles of range hauling Fritolay chips, but only 100 miles range hauling Pepsi soda
  • ignores Tesla video demonstration of 500 miles range at 81,000 lbs gross weight
  • REUTERS tries to lowball Semi's ability to haul a full load
• Megacharger has only 750 Kw of power:
  • actual charging performance is ~640 Kwh in 30 min
  • that's an avg 1.28 Mw of power for half an hour, not 750 Kw
  • REUTERS tries to lowball the power of Megacharger

Rob Maurer does an epic takedown of this trash REUTERS article in his video from yesterday:

New Tesla Semi Details | inaccurate REUTERS article | Tesla Daily

REUTERS is unmasked now for all to see. They are practially Saudi agents at this point (or whoever pays the most for a hitpiece article).

Shameful corruption in the Media. <snip OT> but u kno what I was about to say...

 

[mongo]

Announce he is done selling? He cried wolf too many times so investors will not believe him anymore. And the SEC probably won’t allow it anymore.

Hey now!
In the story the boy who cried wolf, the lead character intentionally lied.
I see no reason to attribute that trait to Elon. He wanted each sale to be the last. He doesn't enjoy selling TSLA, and I'm sure he doesn't enjoy selling TSLA when it is down.
The current situational uncertainty has resulted in his not saying he is done, because he can't know.
Further, when asked a month ago, he said (auto transcript) 'well I I actually um rarely try to convince anyone to invest in Tesla um and many times I've recommended people don't invest in Tesla and I've said I'll stock is too high but [t]hen people just ignore me and keep buying the stock some reason'


To @OrthoSurg's point (which shall go unquoted). My understanding is that Elon is on the hook for a large debt that he cannot just walk away from; as contrasted with a project that has sunk cost, but could be canceled.

 

[verystandard]

SS/dd for Roto-REUTERS w. yet another in a series of embarrasing and/or willfully inaccurate Tesla articles:

"Exclusive: PepsiCo to roll out 100 Tesla Semis in 2023, exec says"​

Some of the numerous specious claims in this article are that:

• Semi has 450 miles of range hauling Fritolay chips, but only 100 miles range hauling Pepsi soda
  • ignores Tesla video demonstration of 500 miles range at 81,000 lbs gross weight
  • REUTERS tries to lowball Semi's ability to haul a full load
• Megacharger has only 750 Kw of power:
  • actual charging performance is ~640 Kwh in 30 min
  • that's an avg 1.28 Mw of power for half an hour, not 750 Kw
  • REUTERS tries to lowball the power of Megacharger

Rob Maurer does an epic takedown of this trash REUTERS article in his video from yesterday:

New Tesla Semi Details | inaccurate REUTERS article | Tesla Daily

REUTERS is unmasked now for all to see. They are practially Saudi agents at this point (or whoever pays the most for a hitpiece article).

Shameful corruption in the Media. <snip OT> but u kno what I was about to say...

"Boeing 777-200 has 9700km of range hauling passengers, but airline instead using it to fly 500km short route between Osaka to Tokyo which is totally unacceptable"

 

[Artful Dodger]

Earlier, a news item mentioned the factory would be built for the "assembly of cargo trucks". So who knows what that means. Semi? Van?
Or was it all speculation?

This is an excellent question. If Semi production is to be less automated than Tesla autos, it will necessarily require more labor to build. Thus, an assembly plant in Mexico makes good sense (especially if the planned volume is 100K/year).

Due to the different treatment by the I.R.A. of commercial vehicles over 14K lbs, it may also be that Semi is still eligible for full incentives even when produced in Mexico.

Another big question is, where will they get their battery supply for Mexico-assembled Semi's? The battery requirement is on the order of 100 GWh/yr, that's a very large battery plant. So 4680s from Tesla? I'm only dimly aware of 3rd-party lithium battery manufacturing in Mexico. But a quick google shows this: (company HQ is in El Paso, TX but manufacture in MX)

There is potential to manufacture lithium batteries in Mexico | TECMA.com

The Tecma Group of Companies​

US Corporate Headquarters​

2000 Wyoming Avenue​

El Paso, Texas​

 

[nativewolf]

EQ

This is an excellent question. If Semi production is to be less automated than Tesla autos, it will necessarily require more labor to build. Thus, an assembly plant in Mexico makes good sense (especially if the planned volume is 100K/year).

Due to the different treatment by the I.R.A. of commercial vehicles over 14K lbs, it may also be that Semi is still eligible for full incentives even when produced in Mexico.

Another big question is, where will they get their battery supply for Mexico-assembled Semi's? The battery requirement is on the order of 100 GWh/yr, that's a very large battery plant. So 4680s from Tesla? I'm only dimly aware of 3rd-party lithium battery manufacturing in Mexico. But a quick google shows this: (company HQ is in El Paso, TX but manufacture in MX)

There is potential to manufacture lithium batteries in Mexico | TECMA.com

The Tecma Group of Companies​

US Corporate Headquarters​

2000 Wyoming Avenue​

El Paso, Texas​

the semi is currently using the 2170,the semi could take all of Reno and that would suggest 4680s for Fremont. Or they plan on the Panasonic ks plant supplying them and they reengineer to use 4680 instead of the 2170.

 

[Unpilot]

That dude has been asked numerous times by those who are non native English speakers to drop this. Well, it has actually intensified.

As the saying goes stupid people are enticed by complex things. Human nature I guess.

Just imagine being English and reading Flemish dialect.

Reminds me of the ripped dude at the gym....just has to wear the smallest t-shirt...cause you know...look at me.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Hey now!
In the story the boy who cried wolf, the lead character intentionally lied.
I see no reason to attribute that trait to Elon. He wanted each sale to be the last. He doesn't enjoy selling TSLA, and I'm sure he doesn't enjoy selling TSLA when it is down.
The current situational uncertainty has resulted in his not saying he is done, because he can't know.
Further, when asked a month ago, he said (auto transcript) 'well I I actually um rarely try to convince anyone to invest in Tesla um and many times I've recommended people don't invest in Tesla and I've said I'll stock is too high but [t]hen people just ignore me and keep buying the stock some reason'


To @OrthoSurg's point (which shall go unquoted). My understanding is that Elon is on the hook for a large debt that he cannot just walk away from; as contrasted with a project that has sunk cost, but could be canceled.

I didn’t meam to imply that Elon lied when he twice said he finished selling, so the Boy Who Cried Wolf was not the best comparison. But I think Elon realizes such an announcement/reassurance does not carry much weight anymore.

 

[Stretch2727]

I understand Troy's data on the backlog is more art than science. His numbers show the backlog dropping faster than the rate of production in the US for the month of November. Concerning. Let's hope it is people delaying due to the tax credit and not Elon's antics.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603579238740811777

 

[elasalle]

I understand Troy's data on the backlog is more art than science. His numbers show the backlog dropping faster than the rate of production in the US for the month of November. Concerning. Let's hope it is people delaying due to the tax credit and not Elon's antics.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603579238740811777

SP dropped this week and some thought it was mass exit of institutes and retail…. And that wasn’t the case

Tesla has more output so backlog will naturally drop . Not concerned for 4Q and dynamics will change with IRA in 2 weeks Cheers!!

 

[CorneliusXX]

"biggest financial crisis ever".... Nope. Not even close. This is nothing like a $600k mortgage being $300k underwater. This is a $30k loan being $5000 underwater on average... when the owner is compelled (though less so by cardealershipguy's example) to pay it back even when it is underwater. So most of the loans will still be paid back. For example, Ford's debt situation is better now than it was two years ago. And most of the consumers who bought overpriced cars, had to put money down when then sale price was above MSRP. This situation the cardealershipguy is talking about is going to be more a problem for used car lots and their finance companies, a business that he is in.

Agree, not only is the vehicle market tiny compared to the housing market, it also takes far less time to shake out. vehicles can be repo'd and sold in a few weeks and losses crystallised at the same time. The housing crisis took years to be able to repo and sell properties and work out the asset revaluation. The broader concern would be the FED continuing to force asset revaluation across all sectors as rates go up and QT continues - then we could see broad scale losses in multiple asset classes with vehicles being the biggest loser.

 

[AudubonB]

So big institutions 44%, public investors like state pensions 41%, individual investors 14,9% of which Elon, Larry and Leo hold the most. Where does that leave us as a collective? Retail is puny, we’re holding just a few crumbs.

Answer: the first two are far from being mutually exclusive. On the contrary, an enormous fraction of state pension funds etc. are managed by the Black Rocks, State Streets, Vanguards and so forth. As are the shares beneficially owned by individuals.

 

[elasalle]

IMHO the vast majority of 'arcane in English' words 'that dude' uses are of latin origin, although some of them came to English from various indo-European tongues. How is it that using language properly is somehow inhibiting civil discourse? He's short on memes, to be sure but memes "meme \MEEM\ noun. 1 : an idea, behavior, style, or usage that spreads from person to person within a culture"
By definition those are unintelligible to the uninitiated and often misleading to those who think they understand.
As for "...stupid people are enticed by complex things" is not that inherently illogical?
Your last line also reflects a certain lack of context. Flemish is an amalgamation of dialects with lexicographical differences that are sometimes vast (look it up). English is quite the same. A native English speaker from, say, West Virginia mountains will probably not understand anything at all with a native English speaker from, say, Chennai while neither one will understand much from a typical native English speaking Cockney.

The point is simple. Dumbing down language and using memes and other colloquial forms is intended linguistically to enhance us-vs-them.

I hope, perhaps vainly, that we all try to communicate with each other here using standard English language words that facilitate use of standard translation tools and dictionaries.
We are all from quite different backgrounds linguistically.
The topic of your ire is a person who uses words that are contained in dictionaries and can easily be understood by nearly anyone with a simple search. No so with many of the colloquial forms, many of which mean entirely different things depending on cultural context. In this forum cultural context is not commonly held.

If I emphasize this excessively it is perhaps because much of the posts here are unintelligible to me and are not easily deciphered with a simple search. Mostly I think my English may be adequate, albeit with typo -laden posts.

So if Audie should 'cool it' with correct word usage how about other people 'cool it' with memes typically used by people with possibly limited vocabularies in the English language.

If we ban fancy words and long posts- we will end up with tweets with emojis