ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
The press’s feelings don’t care about our facts.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Looks like Tesla was clever to do this. Profits look outstanding along with the EU sales. Demand is now thru the roof.
Another point is that Elon is liked much more than the news wants you to believe. Check out the poll numbers and be wary of the financial news. Most investors know this.
www.tesmanian.com
Another point is that Elon is liked much more than the news wants you to believe. Check out the poll numbers and be wary of the financial news. Most investors know this.
Tesla Sparks High Demand in US with Discounts; Now It’s Selling Demo & Test Drive Vehicles
Tesla is selling off cars that have been used for showrooms and test drives in the US. This confirms the highest demand for the manufacturer's vehicles at the end of the year, which was largely due to current generous discounts.
www.tesmanian.com
Frank lays out his theory about the $160-$120 $TSLA drop In 17-tweet thread.
tl;dr:
1) Driven by sales by very large (non-Elon) $TSLA owner. Speculates Price T Rowe or Capital World Investors sold >50 M shares
2) Amplified by MM delta-hedging
3) CWI owns a LOT of $TSLA. If they are liquidating, more pain to come.
tl;dr:
1) Driven by sales by very large (non-Elon) $TSLA owner. Speculates Price T Rowe or Capital World Investors sold >50 M shares
2) Amplified by MM delta-hedging
3) CWI owns a LOT of $TSLA. If they are liquidating, more pain to come.
Anecdotal, but the 20+ Model 3s and the 20+ Model Ys that were available 2 days ago within 200 miles of 78212 (my zipcode) are gone daddy gone this morning...Looks like Tesla was clever to do this. Profits look outstanding along with the EU sales. Demand is now thru the roof.
Another point is that Elon is liked much more than the news wants you to believe. Check out the poll numbers and be wary of the financial news. Most investors know this.
Tesla Sparks High Demand in US with Discounts; Now It’s Selling Demo & Test Drive Vehicles
Tesla is selling off cars that have been used for showrooms and test drives in the US. This confirms the highest demand for the manufacturer's vehicles at the end of the year, which was largely due to current generous discounts.
And a few other random checks:
Beverly Hills 90210 - 0
Redmond 98052 - 0 (Seattle)
Cupertino 95104 - few dozen Ys, 0 3s
Austin 78725 - 0
Miami 33128 - 1 Model Y, 11 Model 3s
Manhattan 10018 - 0
Denver 80202 - 9 Model Ys, 0 Model 3s
Brilliant move Tesla.
I'm
Last edited:
Looks to me that tesla has a pretty good chance of meeting analyst delivery estimates of around 430k. That would be 25% Q/Q growth.
Consensus Q4 earnings is 1.07, about 25% higher than Q3.
What’s crazy is that Q1 and Q2 2023 consensus is 1.11 and 1.13. Given ramps in Texas and Berlin this implies that demand will be under production capacity and basically no impact from the IRA. Or prices, but not costs, will be cut.
Of course Tesla could cut the prices, which they have room for given their high margins and recent price increases.
If we are in for a rough couple of quarters due to macro conditions we should know by the commentary in the Q1 call.
I think the market has already priced this in but I hope that Tesla uses more levers (SR versions, price cuts, refreshed 3, advertising) to keep substantially growing deliveries.
Otherwise stock price could be languishing for a bit.
Consensus Q4 earnings is 1.07, about 25% higher than Q3.
What’s crazy is that Q1 and Q2 2023 consensus is 1.11 and 1.13. Given ramps in Texas and Berlin this implies that demand will be under production capacity and basically no impact from the IRA. Or prices, but not costs, will be cut.
Of course Tesla could cut the prices, which they have room for given their high margins and recent price increases.
If we are in for a rough couple of quarters due to macro conditions we should know by the commentary in the Q1 call.
I think the market has already priced this in but I hope that Tesla uses more levers (SR versions, price cuts, refreshed 3, advertising) to keep substantially growing deliveries.
Otherwise stock price could be languishing for a bit.
My issue was the assumption/rationale of lack of demand. I have yet to see that proven.Hi everybody. Here is the latest news:
This was as expected based on my inventory calculations. This actually happened a day before earlier reports by Reuters and Bloomberg that said the shutdown was expected between Dec 25 and Jan 1, However, I was expecting it to happen earlier because otherwise, they would have too much inventory. Here is what I wrote on Patreon on Dec 20. I thought the shutdown would start on Dec 23. It started on Dec 24. Not bad as far as estimates go because you have to spitball how much inventory is too much.
Some people likened my estimates to art to make fun of it.
Some people kept saying things people wanted to hear:
Some people were too sure because Tesla refused something twice:
Some people decided to attack.
Yet, here we are. The production slowdown started on Dec 12. It happened based on reports that I quoted in my post on Dec 20. The production shutdown was denied by Tesla but it happened today on Dec 24.
I think 2023 will be a better year for Tesla. My delivery growth estimate is 45-50%.
There is also a Model S cameo. And it’s the Porsche that goes up in flames (nothing to do with the car).. we watched it last night. Needed a mental health break from hard week at work and relentless cycle of market negatives with TSLA
.
All new Model 3 and Y are gone from 200 miles of 11361. Cannot tell you how much inventory was there last week exactly, but there was plenty.
The are many used available. But, of course, no 7.5K discount there, nor should there be.
I think more price cuts are coming in 2023 on top of whatever the IRA credits look like.
Model 3 site is pointing to Model Y since 3 sold out in My local VA
Also saw same in local zip in South Carolina(passing through)
Inventory sold out mean no duplicates as well
This is a very important observation that refutes recent speculation
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
Makes sense and lines up with Elon’s statements of lowering prices when production is in full swing and demand is being met — Which it looks like it is.
Interesting there are a lot of Ys available in the SF Bay Area. But then again the Factory is here and they could be saving transport times for the last week of the year.
Nothing available in SoCal
Hmmm, I wonder where advertisement spending might be useful right about now...
Last edited:
Credibility is gone. Oh but hey not having a pr dept is 4d chess
navguy12
Active Member
My S.O surprised me and went in on one of these inventory Model Y's with the $7500 incentive! We will soon be a 2 Model Y family.
The nearby inventory on the Tesla site was evaporating as we watched. I think seeing that happening may have made her pull the trigger - there really is something about that "limited time offer" stuff that works to move product.
Soon we will be all electric on transport, and are already in posession of enough solar to charge both cars at home. Feels pretty dang good. Will need to share the wall charger unfortunately
Peace and happy holiday season all!
New 3 and Y inventory nearly gone in Phoenix area, down from about 15 just 2 days ago, only 2 New remaining today. Still about a dozen new S/X.
Used tells a different story, tons of used S/X locally. Trade-ins I wonder?
navguy12
Active Member
And further to this line of thought: my May 2018 build TM3 just got updated with 2022.44.25.3 three days ago.It's pretty clear right on the Tesla website.
Tesla Vision Update: Replacing Ultrasonic Sensors with Tesla Vision | Tesla Support
Safety is at the core of our design and engineering decisions. In 2021, we began our transition to Tesla Vision by removing radar from Model 3 and Model Y, followed by Model S and Model X in 2022. Today, in most regions around the globe, these vehicles now rely on Tesla Vision, our camera-based...www.tesla.com
Now, the UI is displaying all sorts of extra “obstacles and objects” as I drive my car out of my parking slot in its underground garage; stuff that was NEVER depicted is now there, including pillars.
I must assume that either my USSs are decommissioned or they are running in a shadow mode to Tesla vision.
This is something I’ve noticed as well, New numbers are coming down nicely but the overall numbers seem to still be hovering high and I’d assume that’s trade-ins. Might be wrong but I think S/X inventory also might have shot up.
The $7500 discount is probably helping trade-ins make more sense for people considering the huge recent drop off in trade-in values, with the discount helping to close that gap
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
