Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

I think seeing that happening may have made her pull the trigger - there really is something about that "limited time offer" stuff that works to move product.

Tell me about it, the 2 remaining in inventory include the version I ordered (on hold until Jan 1). Honestly, this order went in when I was fairly sure 4680 batteries would be mainstream. Somehow I doubt that now.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Used tells a different story, tons of used S/X locally. Trade-ins I wonder?

If so, this breaks twofold for Tesla. Less future cost liability with trades and used cars getting stripped of FUSC.

 

[SOULPEDL]

New 3 and Y inventory nearly gone in Phoenix area, down from about 15 just 2 days ago, only 2 New remaining today. Still about a dozen new S/X.

Used tells a different story, tons of used S/X locally. Trade-ins I wonder?

And now they're all gone - all new 3s and Ys, that fast.

 

[mongo]

Credibility is gone. Oh but hey not having a pr dept is 4d chess

What, exactly, has hurt their credibility at this point?
Tesla refuted one report at the beginning of the month. However, many such reports were published...

Claim: Tesla would cut Y production by 20% compared to November
Data to support validity: ??? Need Dec and Nov Y #'s

Dec 5th, Bloomberg via Reuters via Yahoo:

Tesla plans to cut December output of the Model Y at its Shanghai plant by more than 20% from the previous month, two people with knowledge of electric vehicle maker's production plan said on Monday.
...
Late on Monday, the Tesla representative replied "false news," without elaborating. The spokesman did not reply to Reuters questions about whether Tesla was denying any output reduction would take place or whether the move was linked to weaker demand.

Claim: Tesla would cut shifts from 11.5 to 8.5 hours in December. Tesla did not refute this news.
Data to support validity: ??? I can find no reports this happened, maybe YouTube peeps did?

Dec 8, Bloomberg via Reuters and others :

The plant will operate two 9 1/2-hour shifts per day, down from two 11 1/2-hour shifts currently, according to the people, who asked not be named because the information isn’t public.
...
A Tesla representative in China declined to comment Thursday.

Dec 9, Reuters: Tesla Shanghai to shut last week of 2022 and cut Y production 30%. Tesla did not deny.

Tesla Inc will suspend Model Y assembly at its Shanghai plant between Dec. 25 and Jan. 1, according to an internal memo detailing the automaker's latest production plan, reviewed by Reuters, and two people with knowledge of the matter.

The suspension of assembly at the end of the month would be part of a cut in planned production of about 30% in the month for the Model Y, Tesla's best-selling model, at the Shanghai factory, the two people said
...
Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Tesla is targeting production of just over 20,000 Model Y vehicles for the last three weeks of December combined, including the week of suspended output, according to the memo.

 

[Cosmacelf]

What’s crazy is that Q1 and Q2 2023 consensus is 1.11 and 1.13. Given ramps in Texas and Berlin this implies that demand will be under production capacity and basically no impact from the IRA. Or prices, but not costs, will be cut.

Of course Tesla could cut the prices, which they have room for given their high margins and recent price increases.

Elon basically said they will cut prices IF demand falls in his Twitter spaces convo. The market (and analysts it seems) is pricing in a severe recession, so this makes sense I guess. Do we know for sure how much the IRA will help Tesla yet? Anyone have a crystal ball for vehicle spending behavior in Q1, Q2?

 

[wipster]

It should reflect the experience of using it. “Fondle Steering Device”

Fun Sensational Driving!

 

[Max Plaid]

Which means he's not as principled as he pretends and his statement that he's "not going to suppress my views" is garbage. He had a full meltdown on the covid shutdown in California but completely silent on China. Hypocrite.

I don't think Chinese administration takes kindly to criticism and they've been overall very supportive of Tesla, unlike their US counterparts who appear to be doing everything they can, without being seen to do so, to torpedo Tesla's progress

On the other hand, I'd rather Elon sucked it up rather than all the mud-slinging, never does well to be on the bad side of incumbent politicians, wherever that may be

 

[FireMedic]

This is something I’ve noticed as well, New numbers are coming down nicely but the overall numbers seem to still be hovering high and I’d assume that’s trade-ins. Might be wrong but I think S/X inventory also might have shot up.

The $7500 discount is probably helping trade-ins make more sense for people considering the huge recent drop off in trade-in values, with the discount helping to close that gap

In January, used EV’s will also qualify for a tax credit. I believe up to $4,000.

“The new credit will allow for a maximum of $7,500 for new EVs, and up to $4,000, limited to 30% of the sale price, for used EVs.”

EV Tax Credit: How It Works, What Qualifies - NerdWallet EV Tax Credit: How It Works, What Qualifies - NerdWallet

 

[dm28997]

Elon basically said they will cut prices IF demand falls in his Twitter spaces convo. The market (and analysts it seems) is pricing in a severe recession, so this makes sense I guess. Do we know for sure how much the IRA will help Tesla yet? Anyone have a crystal ball for vehicle spending behavior in Q1, Q2?

Tesla already makes a generous profit and might be better as efficiency increases. This is deadly news for any competition. Tesla looks to gain even more market share as competition gets wiped out.
Hang ten.

 

[The Accountant]

Looks to me that tesla has a pretty good chance of meeting analyst delivery estimates of around 430k

It appears that consensus is now 424k.

 

[wipster]

What, exactly, has hurt their credibility at this point?
Tesla refuted one report at the beginning of the month. However, many such reports were published...

Claim: Tesla would cut Y production by 20% compared to November
Data to support validity: ??? Need Dec and Nov Y #'s

Dec 5th, Bloomberg via Reuters via Yahoo:


Claim: Tesla would cut shifts from 11.5 to 8.5 hours in December. Tesla did not refute this news.
Data to support validity: ??? I can find no reports this happened, maybe YouTube peeps did?

Dec 8, Bloomberg via Reuters and others :


Dec 9, Reuters: Tesla Shanghai to shut last week of 2022 and cut Y production 30%. Tesla did not deny.

Elon was asked if he had stopped assaulting his female employees. He did not deny so it must be true...

 

[Max Plaid]

"Bringing ahead" isn't even technically the truth
Week = 7 days
25-24 = 1
31-24 = 7
7 days
It would need to start the 24th to have even a technical chance...
Reuter's Dec 9th: "Tesla Inc will suspend Model Y assembly at its Shanghai plant between Dec. 25 and Jan. 1"
Reuters Dec 24th: "Tesla suspended production at its Shanghai plant on Saturday, according to an internal notice and two people with knowledge of the matter, bringing ahead a previous plan to pause most work at the plant in the last week of December."

It appears, based on WUWA and Reuter's reporting time (the night of the 24th in China), that on Saturday they announced they were suspending production starting Sunday (the 25th).

Not to mention that Reuters stated less 20% production for Model Y, not total shutdown, so there, stick that in your pipe and smoke it!

 

[Discoducky]

In January, used EV’s will also qualify for a tax credit. I believe up to $4,000.

“The new credit will allow for a maximum of $7,500 for new EVs, and up to $4,000, limited to 30% of the sale price, for used EVs.”

EV Tax Credit: How It Works, What Qualifies - NerdWallet EV Tax Credit: How It Works, What Qualifies - NerdWallet

Yep and

For used vehicles, the price cap drops to $25,000

 

[wipster]

"Bringing ahead" isn't even technically the truth
Week = 7 days
25-24 = 1
31-24 = 7
7 days
It would need to start the 24th to have even a technical chance...
Reuter's Dec 9th: "Tesla Inc will suspend Model Y assembly at its Shanghai plant between Dec. 25 and Jan. 1"
Reuters Dec 24th: "Tesla suspended production at its Shanghai plant on Saturday, according to an internal notice and two people with knowledge of the matter, bringing ahead a previous plan to pause most work at the plant in the last week of December."

It appears, based on WUWA and Reuter's reporting time (the night of the 24th in China), that on Saturday they announced they were suspending production starting Sunday (the 25th).

Has their been an official announcement other than those 2 people with knowledge of the matter? And if there is. shutdown, is it related to any holidays they may be observing?

 

[H Mak]

At least I've got you lot to share the pain with so Happy Christmas everyone!

(not you share price, you can eff right off)

 

[wipster]

All new Model 3 and Y are gone from 200 miles of 11361. Cannot tell you how much inventory was there last week exactly, but there was plenty.

The are many used available. But, of course, no 7.5K discount there, nor should there be.

Haven't looked at the used inventory lately (I would assume a lot of lease returns), but how many had FSD capable included? That in itself makes for a hell of a deal.

 

[The Accountant]

Tesla already makes a generous profit and might be better as efficiency increases. This is deadly news for any competition. Tesla looks to gain even more market share as competition gets wiped out.
Hang ten.

I was about to post something similar. Tesla makes on average $15k gross margin per car sold. But it varies by car model/trim and location.
For example, I estimate that a Model Y LR made in Fremont and sold in the US has a profit margin of about $22k based on today's list price (excluding the $7.5 discount). Tesla can easily reduce prices that the competition will not be able to match.

In addition, current margins are suppressed by the inefficient Berlin/Austin sites. As volumes build at these factories, margins will improve further. Rather than take these improved margins to the bottom-line, Tesla can take price discounts to drive more sales keeping margins relatively flat.
Let's see how the economic conditions pan out for 2023, Tesla has some wiggle room.

 

[wipster]

I don't think Chinese administration takes kindly to criticism and they've been overall very supportive of Tesla, unlike their US counterparts who appear to be doing everything they can, without being seen to do so, to torpedo Tesla's progress

On the other hand, I'd rather Elon sucked it up rather than all the mud-slinging, never does well to be on the bad side of incumbent politicians, wherever that may be

Don't blame him a bit for hitting back at the unproven assertions leveled at him by Warren and Schiff. Pure hit jobs.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Don't blame him a bit for hitting back at the unproven assertions leveled at him by Warren and Schiff. Pure hit jobs.

Don’t forget Lieu and Sandy.

 

[FireMedic]

The all in podcast is usually a worthy weekly listen. Interestingly David Sacks is proudly (admits as much during intro) at BlueBird HQ for their recording.

I say interesting because I think Sacks would make a great choice for replacement CEO.

*EDIT: @46:00 Sacks announces he is NOT a candidate for bird CEO. They continue talking about Elon and what is to come (in their opinion).

I haven’t listened to the whole thing yet but I suspect there will be more Elon, Tesla, or bird material and I’ll report back if I hear anything substantial.

The current CEO of the bird shows up at 59 minute mark and discusses financial viability of said now private corporation.

Edit: also discussing product engineering.

Edit 2: Elon adds a bit of color to the job cuts. Also sounds like a reasonable (non-crazy) dude.