JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Which means he's not as principled as he pretends and his statement that he's "not going to suppress my views" is garbage. He had a full meltdown on the covid shutdown in California but completely silent on China. Hypocrite.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
??? The Covid shutdown in California was a single health official going against government policy that was allowing other car factories to remain open. In China now so many are sick right now that you can't run a factory. In Q2 everything was shutdown in China, not just the Tesla factory (and there weren't parts because suppliers were shut down), so it was nothing like the Fremont situation.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
We have several inventory trackers for USA/Europe. Is there one for China?
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Was just about to post this. DETAILS matter.
The US Gov had given Tesla and all other automakers exemption from shutdown, as they were considered essential. The local official tried to go against that. That is the underlying reason that Elon went nuclear.
China has been very even-handed (if not misguided) in their application of lockdowns/restrictions.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/KFDWY3LTTVICVBDJKNPGOTM2RY.jpg)
Tesla suspends production at Shanghai plant
Tesla suspended production at its Shanghai plant on Saturday, according to an internal notice and two people with knowledge of the matter, bringing ahead a previous plan to pause most work at the plant in the last week of December.www.reuters.com
The base question (accusation?) of truthfulness relies on when it became true.
The "untrue" response to the rumored 20% cut was reported Dec 5th, nearly three weeks ago. Things change.
, the report was cutting Y output, would it be false to say untrue if Tesla China still made more Y's in December MoM?
While on the topic, did we ever get confirmation of Tesla shift hours cut that was reportedly going to start Dec 8th?
Also, really reuters? How is a week long shutdown starting the 25th in any way a "bringing ahead a previous plan to pause most work at the plant in the last week of December."? This IS the last week in December.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I really wish we could get the details on "week long" shutdown for Ford, GM, VW, MB, etc.
I would be 10 TSLA shares that Tesla has the highest uptime of their lines of anyone.
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
"Did I miss something?"There's a push for H2 long distance trucking in Europe. The big EU energy firms are all in the process of building large scale electrolysers. Unfortunately it's going to be horribly expensive as the cost of electricity drives the cost of H2. And electricity is very pricey at the moment.
Batteries will win out in the long run but there will probably be another 5-10 years where fuel cell long distance trucks are purchased and operated at high cost as an attempt to get away from diesel while ev trucks continue to improve range, cost and availability.
Cleanerwatt has a recent video discussing the Tesla semi in Europe where the lack of a cab-over model will cause some issues due to the length of the semi. However given the size of the market and the fact that Tesla will only produce 50k a year, it's unlikely that Tesla will run out of demand for the semi for years to come. And if it does limit demand I'm sure Tesla will create a cab-over model in due course, even if it does sacrifice aero.
Yes, there's a spec of black pepper on the counter, tucked behind the toaster.
"Bringing ahead" isn't even technically the truth
Week = 7 days
25-24 = 1
31-24 = 7
7 days
It would need to start the 24th to have even a technical chance...
Reuter's Dec 9th: "Tesla Inc will suspend Model Y assembly at its Shanghai plant between Dec. 25 and Jan. 1"
Reuters Dec 24th: "Tesla suspended production at its Shanghai plant on Saturday, according to an internal notice and two people with knowledge of the matter, bringing ahead a previous plan to pause most work at the plant in the last week of December."
It appears, based on WUWA and Reuter's reporting time (the night of the 24th in China), that on Saturday they announced they were suspending production starting Sunday (the 25th).
Hi everybody. Here is the latest news:
This was as expected based on my inventory calculations. This actually happened a day before earlier reports by Reuters and Bloomberg that said the shutdown was expected between Dec 25 and Jan 1, However, I was expecting it to happen earlier because otherwise, they would have too much inventory. Here is what I wrote on Patreon on Dec 20. I thought the shutdown would start on Dec 23. It started on Dec 24. Not bad as far as estimates go because you have to spitball how much inventory is too much.
Some people likened my estimates to art to make fun of it.
Some people kept saying things people wanted to hear:
Some people were too sure because Tesla refused something twice:
Some people decided to attack.
Yet, here we are. The production slowdown started on Dec 12. It happened based on reports that I quoted in my post on Dec 20. The production shutdown was denied by Tesla but it happened today on Dec 24.
I think 2023 will be a better year for Tesla. My delivery growth estimate is 45-50%.
This was as expected based on my inventory calculations. This actually happened a day before earlier reports by Reuters and Bloomberg that said the shutdown was expected between Dec 25 and Jan 1, However, I was expecting it to happen earlier because otherwise, they would have too much inventory. Here is what I wrote on Patreon on Dec 20. I thought the shutdown would start on Dec 23. It started on Dec 24. Not bad as far as estimates go because you have to spitball how much inventory is too much.
Some people likened my estimates to art to make fun of it.
Some people kept saying things people wanted to hear:
Some people were too sure because Tesla refused something twice:
Some people decided to attack.
Yet, here we are. The production slowdown started on Dec 12. It happened based on reports that I quoted in my post on Dec 20. The production shutdown was denied by Tesla but it happened today on Dec 24.
I think 2023 will be a better year for Tesla. My delivery growth estimate is 45-50%.
Last edited:
The all in podcast is usually a worthy weekly listen. Interestingly David Sacks is proudly (admits as much during intro) at BlueBird HQ for their recording.
I say interesting because I think Sacks would make a great choice for replacement CEO.
*EDIT: @46:00 Sacks announces he is NOT a candidate for bird CEO. They continue talking about Elon and what is to come (in their opinion).
I haven’t listened to the whole thing yet but I suspect there will be more Elon, Tesla, or bird material and I’ll report back if I hear anything substantial.
I say interesting because I think Sacks would make a great choice for replacement CEO.
*EDIT: @46:00 Sacks announces he is NOT a candidate for bird CEO. They continue talking about Elon and what is to come (in their opinion).
I haven’t listened to the whole thing yet but I suspect there will be more Elon, Tesla, or bird material and I’ll report back if I hear anything substantial.
Last edited:
So you are saying Reuters didn't report on the shutdown until after a full day's worth of shifts didn't happen?
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Hi everybody. Here is the latest news, This was as expected based on my inventory calculations.
This actually happened a day before earlier reports by Reuters and Bloomberg that said the shutdown was expected between Dec 25 and Jan 1, However, I was expecting it to happen earlier because otherwise, they would have too much inventory. Here is what I wrote on Patreon on Dec 20. I thought the shutdown would start on Dec 23. It started on Dec 24. Not bad as far as estimates go because you have to spitball how much inventory is too much.
Some people likened my estimates to art to make fun of it.
Some people kept saying things people wanted to hear:
Some people were too sure because Tesla refused something twice:
Some people decided to attack.
Yet, here we are. The production slowdown started on Dec 12. It happened based on reports that I quoted in my post on Dec 20. The production shutdown was denied by Tesla but it happened today on Dec 24.
I think 2023 will be a better year for Tesla. My delivery growth estimate is 40-50%.
The KEY here is:
Was this planned (as you put forth), or was this unplanned (the rumor in China is that as much as 50% of the factory workers have COVID)?
Just because the outcome is the same, don't think the motivation was (i.e. it was planned).
Furthermore, as pointed out above, auto lines NEVER run 100% for a year. A week of downtime . . . yeah, that's pretty small and will be used for maintenance, upgrades, etc.
It's pretty clear right on the Tesla website.
Tesla Vision Update: Replacing Ultrasonic Sensors with Tesla Vision | Tesla Support
Safety is at the core of our design and engineering decisions. In 2021, we began our transition to Tesla Vision by removing radar from Model 3 and Model Y, followed by Model S and Model X in 2022. Today, in most regions around the globe, these vehicles now rely on Tesla Vision, our camera-based...www.tesla.com
We like to think of it as a teenager on crack.
Having said that it has gotten even smoother with this latest update. It still fails the same two intersections 100 percent but everything else has gotten smoother and more confident again and with less over acceleration around corners. At night it’s even better.
Still have to turn off FSD for self park. Not sure what that’s all about.
Two steps forwards. One step back. We’ll take it.
Is this a mountain or a mole-hill? Is this normal factory maintenance and planned?Hi everybody. Here is the latest news, This was as expected based on my inventory calculations.
This actually happened a day before earlier reports by Reuters and Bloomberg that said the shutdown was expected between Dec 25 and Jan 1, However, I was expecting it to happen earlier because otherwise, they would have too much inventory. Here is what I wrote on Patreon on Dec 20. I thought the shutdown would start on Dec 23. It started on Dec 24. Not bad as far as estimates go because you have to spitball how much inventory is too much.
Some people likened my estimates to art to make fun of it.
Some people kept saying things people wanted to hear:
Some people were too sure because Tesla refused something twice:
Some people decided to attack.
Yet, here we are. The production slowdown started on Dec 12. It happened based on reports that I quoted in my post on Dec 20. The production shutdown was denied by Tesla but it happened today on Dec 24.
I think 2023 will be a better year for Tesla. My delivery growth estimate is 45-50%.
Feels like a mole-hill still, but lots of ink has been spilled and folks are making money on it. That is the part that feels not good.
OMG we are all just becoming investors with a very short term mindset. There are many reasons why a company might be required to deny price cuts and production cuts/stops.
Let’s at least give the management a chance to release P&D and earning reports. A company that has “sense of urgency” built into its DNA and executed like champs during peak Covid is now going to navigate a really bad economy. Let’s see what they have in store.
Can you imagine what would happen if they have a lower priced model 3 in China. Hint: Just look at BYD’s numbers. It would be the perfect time. You are all assuming that management is asleep at the wheel.
People predicting 70 or 80 share price may end up being right but again way too much focus on short term. Don’t let Wall Street steal your shares. This is the game that’s played out many times and usually the smart ones make out like a bandit.
Let’s at least give the management a chance to release P&D and earning reports. A company that has “sense of urgency” built into its DNA and executed like champs during peak Covid is now going to navigate a really bad economy. Let’s see what they have in store.
Can you imagine what would happen if they have a lower priced model 3 in China. Hint: Just look at BYD’s numbers. It would be the perfect time. You are all assuming that management is asleep at the wheel.
People predicting 70 or 80 share price may end up being right but again way too much focus on short term. Don’t let Wall Street steal your shares. This is the game that’s played out many times and usually the smart ones make out like a bandit.
Dikkie Dik
If gets hard, use hammer
It is a tiny tiny molehill that, if one had a pr dept, one could be in front of in the press.
It was fun to watch with great actors. Some people attempting to compare Elon to this crazed billionaire just doesn't fit at all. In fact Elon is the exact opposite and has debunked Hydrogen many times(simple thermodynamics) and doesn't even own a home.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
