Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Haha, no! CPCA numbers come out on a regular schedule each month, even if you're otherwise in a hurry.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Haha, no! CPCA numbers come out on a regular schedule each month, even if you're otherwise in a hurry.
My main gripe is that the last official word we had was that the quarter was going to be "epic" and that deliveries should be just under 50% growth. At some point they knew this was no longer the case and they didn't update guidance and reset expectations accordingly.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Austin and Berlin each have nameplate capacities of “>250,000” per year for more than 500k combined. This aligns with the 5k per week target for end of 2022 that we barely missed, apparently mainly due to not having a third shift yet. Elon had mentioned in 2021 that Berlin optimistically might hit 10k per week (500k per year) by the end of 2022. Although that didn’t happen, the mere fact he mentioned it as a possibility indicates that Berlin’s capacity might be understated as severely as Shanghai’s was. Same thing may apply for Texas.
Even if not, at current demonstrated run rates in excess of 3k/week (let’s call it 6.5k combined) their combined output right now is about 0.33M/year.
Before the pause, Shanghai demonstrated 87k per month output, which equals 1.04M annualized.
Fremont is doing somewhere around 142k per quarter or about 0.56M annualized.
0.33 + 1.04 + 0.56 = 1.93M per year beginning of 2023 run rate for S3XY
Well, to be fair, these are record P&D numbers for Tesla, and it's likely revenue and EPS will also be a record high, so that might fit the term "epic" depending on your definition of it.
The long term trajectory is still very good, it's just increasing slower than most of us expected.
With the stock beaten down and expectations low, I would like to see Tesla do some sandbagging for 2023 to make it easy to beat estimates. Apple is a master at this game.
ThisStockGood
Still cruising my Model S 70 2015
Damn, it’s heartbreaking to watch Tesla Economist’s total meltdown on the bird… a solid reminder not to gamble the options market and not invest money, you cannot afford to loose short term.
It’s almost impressive the 180 degrees shift he made overnight after years of posting bullish predictions
Don’t get me wrong -my best wishes for him.
It’s almost impressive the 180 degrees shift he made overnight after years of posting bullish predictions
Don’t get me wrong -my best wishes for him.
“Q4 inventory is going to be epic.”
He just forgot a word.
He just forgot a word.
earnings call set for Wednesday, January 25
that one should be very interesting
that one should be very interesting
A little educational advertising by Tesla could help to ensure that demand accelerates, both for now and for years to come. An enlightening Super Bowl ad might be a pleasant surprise.
Tesla Economist absolutely jumping the shark.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, that'd go over like a lead balloon. Years of guiding an average of 50% growth, then suddenly its like "Oh, not so much!" TASLACK will luv ur ider... /s
ThisStockGood
Still cruising my Model S 70 2015
Are you Joe on Twitter? He seems to copy the the funny stuff from this board (not my contributions unfortunately…
) and tag Elon… cheap! Almost as cheap as Teslas will get in 2023 
Are you Joe on Twitter? He seems to copy the the funny stuff from this board (not my contributions unfortunately…
He keeps copying my material.
But mesmerized by that Fabio hair, so I forgive him.
Paracelsus
Active Member
The supply chain disruptions of 2022 that have impacted Tesla’s EV production through much of the year - particularly in China, screams volumes about the benefits of Tesla Energy’s future contributions to the company as compared to the industry that Wall Street and mainstream media wants to shoehorn Tesla into (Auto). These benefits not only include the TE revenue source that Legacy does not have, they also include significantly increased stability of that TE revenue source in times of supply chain disruption. I had not considered this until conversations around the Tesla PD earlier today with @wipster and in light of a recent post from @Singuy regarding Covid impacts on Shanghai production to Tesla in 2022. The number of suppliers necessary to produce a Tesla EV - and thus the entire logistics chain necessary to create, deliver, assemble, and ship that EV must create a risk of delay that is at least an order of magnitude more than the production and delivery chain for a Megapack - which Tesla has fine-tuned to little more than filling up a big container van with batteries from their own Giafactory that is just a short Tesla semi haul away. Smoothing the curve on EV revenue forecasting will always be difficult considering the number of variables in that equation that are beyond Tesla’s control. TE will not only grow to perhaps 50% of Tesla’s revenue, it will become a much more reliable source of overall revenue than Tesla Motors can be, as witnessed in 2022. And with Tesla adding their own refining capabilities in the next couple years that supply chain is going to be only a couple links long.
Paracelsus
Active Member
TrendTrader007
Active Member
man! i need an antidepressant after seeing his statements. luckily, i never take any of the talking heads on you tube or the bird seriously.Damn, it’s heartbreaking to watch Tesla Economist’s total meltdown on the bird… a solid reminder not to gamble the options market and not invest money, you cannot afford to loose short term.
It’s almost impressive the 180 degrees shift he made overnight after years of posting bullish predictions
Don’t get me wrong -my best wishes for him.
they know as much about future TSLA stock performance as i know about performing neurosurgery (which is next to nothing)
sadly, some do take all these talking heads/influencers seriously and pay the price.
nobody knows what a stock is going to do, your guess is as good as mine.
i must add, when those who sing praises of Tesla on a daily basis turn negative, that typically is closer to bottom than the top
with a stock like Tesla retail as well as institutional sentiment is a fairly reliable contrarian indicator
back in 2020/2021 everybody who owned tons of tesla was dreaming of retirement and quitting day jobs. definitely reminded me of 1999/2000 when Doctors wanted to quit practice and become day traders. now, these same guys think Tesla is done. well, some folks never learn.
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2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Interesting article about 3rd party comparing Tesla Semi to the (ahem) competition...
(includes fancy chart with numbers and colors)
www.teslarati.com
(includes fancy chart with numbers and colors)
Tesla Semi outperforms rivals in specification analysis
The Tesla Semi outperforms its electric semi-truck competition in a new specification analysis considering a laundry list of categories.
www.teslarati.com
Agree with the educational, but not the advertising, conventional advertising like 60 second commercials that is. What I'd really like to see more of us inclusion of Tesla vehicles in movies, TV shows, and other stories, much like that one that featured EAP (maybe FSD) where the ability of the Tesla to avoid accidents without human intervention saved the day. Teslas need to be a part of the story itself, not just a commercial.
And that's not limited to vehicles. As you know more than any of us Curt, it was Tesla solar power and Powerwalls that saved your community during Hurricane Ian. Even though it was covered by the news, I can definitely see a Netflix movie stemming from you and your neighbors experience!
Interesting news (if true)
electrek.co
Exclusive: Tesla's head of China takes over sales in North America
Tesla's head of China, Tom Zhu, has taken over responsibilities for sales, service, and deliveries in North America.
electrek.co
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