Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

Thoughts on the Investor Day press release wording?

"Our investors will be able to see our most advanced production line as well as discuss long term expansion plans, generation 3 platform, capital allocation and other subjects with our leadership team."

I'm expecting at least one new Gigafactory announcement. "capital allocation" could be referring to the buyback. Unsure what the generation 3 platform is referring to. Could be Cybertruck, Robotaxi, or Highland, I suppose.

Gen 3 is a new vechicle program 50% of the cost of Model 3/Y - RoboTaxi and others.

Highland possibly $35K others perhaps $25K-$30K.

 

[generalenthu]

Where are you getting this “Name plate capacity” from?

Tesla has said they expect 10,000 Model Ys per week out of Texas. A Pair of Gigapresses can produce 250k+ Model Ys in a year. The idea that either Texas or Berlin are going to slow down at this point is silly.



Without the seemingly arbitrary caps on production capacity you’ve pulled out of the air, production won’t be concentrated in Shanghai. That’s the whole point of a factory in Berlin and Texas.

I like your arguments. I hope we are closer to 2 million in total deliveries. Even if we are closer to 1.8 or so million for the year, it is likely more efficient to ramp and churn them out of Austin than do the same at Fremont.

My main point in all of this is the capex to achieve the 40% delivery growth for the s3xy lines. It should be much less in 23. That said, there will probably other capex from ramping cybertruck. Not known is what is the capex needed for Semi and megapacks. They seem to be more in the low volume or low manufacturing complexity (for megapacks) category that may not require a ton of capex.

 

[Curt Renz]

Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609964328261935104

 

[Big Time]

Big Time’s Big Time Analysis:

-Production is on track
-EoQ, and specifically EoY Wave is getting smoothed out
-Shanghai is closed for Chinese new year and overall factory retooling, so this would be a “negative”, but perhaps these late Q1 inventory spill over deliveries coupled with the Shanghai temporary closure will smooth out the “hit” from Chinese New Year.
-All eyes on new twitter CEO
-All eyes on IRA
-All eyes on Megapack & Megapack margins
-All eyes on Automotive Margins
-All eyes on Revenue and Earnings

Unless Megapack earnings are so unbelievably stellar, I see a hard time seeing TSLA over 200 until Q3 barring end of Ukraine conflict & Deflation occurring at a massive rate in Q1/Q2

Megapack ramp is what I’m betting on to move the stock until Tesla can put out a new product. Hopefully we get some good news with the cybertruck soon.

Although Berlin and Austin’s deliveries have been slow going, we are reaching the point where over the next year their combined output will begin to massively effect the balance sheet.


Good luck all, Happy new year, be thankful and focus on what you have, versus what you don’t.

HODL(FU ELON)

 

[Singuy]

This is a pretty significant miss right? I am surprised the BOD let Elon sell that last batch of shares when he had material insider information about the sales not meeting expectation.

The miss was going to happen after Shanghai was closed for 1.5 months. However, the Tesla team and all of us had hopium that Tesla would make up for it Q3 and Q4, when they find that they are hitting logistical snags. Even today we see many ships circling around at sea and cars waiting to be picked up @ Shanghai. So I'm going to file this under....they did the best they can and still managed to deliver 1.3M cars when the prices were 20% higher than 2020 with higher interest rates. Facing a dramatic price drop thanks to the IRA/ deflation, and solving these logistical snags makes 2023 pretty bullish.

 

[TSLA Siempre]

It’s fine if Tesla wants to unwind the wave intentionally. However, it sure looked like they tried to wind up the wave at the of the quarter by having discounts in North America and suspending some production in China in December.

There need to be some tough questions asked on the earnings call.

 

[Ogre]

Elon Musk on Texas and Berlin Production at the Q2 earnings call: @generalenthu

There’s always a lot of uncertainty like the production looks like S-curve, and that intermediate part of S-curve the difficult to bridge that with high certainty. But the end part of the S-curve, you can say, I think you can have a lot more certainty. And so that’s why I’m confident we’ll get to 5,000 cars a week at — in Austin and Berlin by the end of this year or early next year and probably but not certainly, 10,000 cars a week at both locations by the end of next year.

They are a little behind schedule on hitting 5,000/ week, but seems likely they will get there by the end of next quarter. Extremely clear that they are not stopping the ramp at that point. That’s a combined output of 1 million vehicles. More than enough headroom for 50% growth without the Cybertruck.

Cybertruck will be launched in 2023, but we’ll only see 10-20k produced in 2023. The ramp happens primarily in 2024.

Need to be cutting ground on new factories this year as early as possible to hit growth targets in 2024 and 2025.

 

[30seconds]

I still don’t understand what happened in Shanghai in December. Anyone seen production numbers?

 

[EVWatcher]

I still don’t understand what happened in Shanghai in December. Anyone seen production numbers?

My guess from anecdotes about shipping is that there was a carrier backlog for export and a bunch of covid positive workers so they just said “screw it, let’s upgrade the line”

 

[gtrplyr1]

Just for perspective:

40% growth for Tesla over $400 would be a real disappointment, given the fact we have seen SP get crushed, 40% growth is remarkable.

In fact, given the economic climate as of late, 40% growth is amazing.


How WS reacts is anyone’s guess.

Btw, as irritated as I am at elons behavior, I can’t blame him for all of teslas troubles, it’s a tough atmosphere for busines at the moment.

Good luck to the longs tomorrow.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Almost everyone thinks TSLA the stock will not have an amazing year but I think we will all be in for a surprise at year end.
My prediction is we end the year a lot higher than beginning. No recession and investors looking at what Tesla the company will do in 2024.

The “problem” is if everyone expects this, front running will make it difficult to time. Who knows when the fireworks could start…

 

[unk45]

As we consider revenue recognition of some portion to FSD for 2022 it is relevant to understand what 2022.44.25.5 is compared to any previous release.
Others have commented. I have just returned from a 1200 mile trip using FSD all the way. Earlier today it navigated the Golden Glades Interchange from North to South (the bizarre one going from four lanes to one lane and back again, ALWAYS with heavy traffic) without intervention:

Humans have serious problems there and many excellent drivers avoid it totally. Today I decided to try this infamous spot only because it had navigated numerous roundabouts, fog, heavy rain and so on.

I do not wish to pollute the thread with a log driving report. I do want to suggest that right now there is substantial justification to recognize substantial revenue for 4th quarter 2022, based on having delivered nearly all the basic functionality. I do not hazard a guess of how much revenue to recognize.

This should also serve to encourage major increase in paid subscriptions and purchases.

 

[generalenthu]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610017600737533954

Decent estimate of inventory split that was being discussed up thread

 

[Mirindi]

Despite being P/D day, the most interesting thing today, in my opinion, is that Martin V announced the Tesla Investor Day on March 1 following the number report. Very interesting to see this type of event being schedules not too far away and I wonder what caused it.

I know many of us here have different opinions on Tesla's (lack of) communication the last few months but I really do wonder if this event has spawned from all the endless tweets and comments that have been sent Tesla's way regarding Elon and everything around him/Twitter and the share price having a bad time last year, or if this event was something that has been planned since long ago.

Perhaps it started as one type of event and evolved into the "Investor Day" based on recent events. Whatever the reason, sounds like it could be a good opportunity to restore investors' faith in the company and talk about the roadmap going forward, feels like there could be something for everyone in this event (institutional/retail investors, fans/enthusiasts, etc.).

 

[Singuy]

Just to show how much Tsla's over performance have molded our perception of today's "disappointing" report.

Morgan Stanley over a year ago had 2022 to deliver 1.15M cars and raised PT to $810 ($270 post split).

Wedbush Dan who is cutting PT all day long said 2 years ago Tesla's PT is 1000(333 post split) with projected deliveries of
750k for 2021, 932k for 2022.



So yeah we hulked smash through all of these bull analysts and today they do nothing but talk crap. This is a perception problem because Tesla have been beating and raising so often people forgot how well the company is executing despite of some small "misses".

​

 

[generalenthu]

Despite being P/D day, the most interesting thing today, in my opinion, is that Martin V announced the Tesla Investor Day on March 1 following the number report. Very interesting to see this type of event being schedules not too far away and I wonder what caused it.

I know many of us here have different opinions on Tesla's (lack of) communication the last few months but I really do wonder if this event has spawned from all the endless tweets and comments that have been sent Tesla's way regarding Elon and everything around him/Twitter and the share price having a bad time last year, or if this event was something that has been planned since long ago.

Perhaps it started as one type of event and evolved into the "Investor Day" based on recent events. Whatever the reason, sounds like it could be a good opportunity to restore investors' faith in the company and talk about the roadmap going forward, feels like there could be something for everyone in this event (institutional/retail investors, fans/enthusiasts, etc.).

Well, there is a shareholder vote coming up and some knuckleheads (in my opinion) are threatening to run for the board. It probably makes sense to get the management viewpoint out there to the investors at large.

 

[Mengy]

Almost everyone thinks TSLA the stock will not have an amazing year but I think we will all be in for a surprise at year end.
My prediction is we end the year a lot higher than beginning. No recession and investors looking at what Tesla the company will do in 2024.

I sure do hope so. I mean if the stock price doubles this year then we find ourselves at $250, which is a lot higher than today but still down almost half from the ATH of $415.

Would that be an "amazing" year?

 

[Knightshade]

Does anyone know if the price limits ($55k and $80k) are for the base price, the price fully optioned, or the price a customer pays?

AFAIK it's the full price as it comes from the factory--- so it would include all factory options (like wheels or paint) but NOT dealer-installed options (which for Tesla I think is just homelink?). IIRC it excludes destination charge.

 

[mongo]

Seems to me if Austin and Berlin go from 3000/week to 5000/week in the near term (as I understood their 2022 goal to be), this would add ~208K of production to the year. So even if Fremont and Shanghai maintains current production, that would still get them to just under 2M in 2023 (hitting the 50%) without CT or Semi numbers.

Indeed, if Austin and Berlin did not ramp to 10k/wk in 2023 and stagnated at 2k/wk over Q4...
The 208k needs to be added to the Q4 (at a minimum) 440k + (208/4) = 492k * 4 = 1.998 million minimum.
50% growth YoY is:
1,369,611×1.5= 2.054 million, 56k higher.

Actually can someone do the math? I think in order to have a constant rate of incoming stock of cars without a wave, you DO need 50% of cars in transit at all times.

Lets say demand is 400k/quarter
Lets say you want to stop growing
I think you need to build 200k of inventory so you scale your production up to 600k and then drop production to 400k/year. This will give you a smooth constant amount of cars being stocked all year

You do want 50% of your transport capacity loaded at all times.

Average days of inventory is most dependent on average distance to buyer. Other factors are average dwell time at delivery center and time to ship (which should be low say 3 days).
If the buyers are all overseas, cars take 30 days to get there. 30 + factory + delivery center = 33 days
If they are all local, it takes less than a week. 3 + factory + delivery center. = 6 days

 

[Singuy]

You know people are delusional when TslaQ is celebrating at a 1.3M car deliveries for the year when they said Tesla has a demand problem every since Tesla was delivering 30k cars/year....and bulls are like "TslaQ you win this time"...lol