If the expected per share earning in 2029 is only 64~$80, then there is not much reason to hold this stock. We can't assume that 2029 and beyond the growth rate will remain 25%. In stead, I assume P/E 12, use the $64~80 earning, the stock would worth $768~960 in 2029. If that's the expectation, it's better to just invest in the index.
My prediction is by 2029 Tesla will have 15 Gigafactories for battery and car production. Each factory produces 800,000 cars a year. (3 million Model 3; 7 million Model Y; 2 million Pickup Trucks, plus small amount of other things). 10% net earnings (2/3 from selling cars, 1/3 from energy and Tesla Network). Share float 150m due to mild share buyback. At P/E of 12, per share price will be $7600 in year 2029. I think this is the most likely scenario.
The key for this to happen is Model 3 and Model Y will continue to get better, continue to reduce production cost (both are guaranteed to happen) and the general AI self driving has to work (which I give it 90% chance). Maybe I'm too optimistic, I think 20 fold is highly likely to happen in the next 10 years.
