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  1. lklundin

    Wiki Tesla Europe Registration Stats

    In Denmark the sales numbers for 2023H1 have been published for the best selling cars. 8655 Tesla Model Y 1665 Tesla Model 3 As such the sales numbers for June 2023 are: 1665 - 1023 = 642 Model 3 8655 - 6492= 2163 Model Y These are massive numbers for Denmark. (I uploaded the numbers, but am...
  2. lklundin

    Wiki Tesla Europe Registration Stats

    Yesterday the March 2023 (record) sales of Tesla Model Y and 3 in Denmark were uploaded, but somehow the numbers do not appear in the tables: 3203 Model Y 443 Model 3 Anyone can see them here (screenshot attached), from the web-page of the association of auto importers in Denmark...
  3. lklundin

    Elon & Twitter

    On Twitter this sentiment now seems common in my small bubble of European (incl. Iceland) Tesla-drivers/investors.
  4. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I am not proud to write this, but after additional reflection I think my above use of the 'German Tank Problem' is incorrect. Let me first describe how this proven estimate _can_ be used: On Sept. 17 2022 Norway had seen 2085 VINs from GigaBerlin - the highest of which was 22625. The 'German...
  5. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Although the day is not yet finished, the maximum observed VIN in Norway grew today by close to 2k - after a bit of a lull. I will leave it to others to speculate why and just note that this causes the "German Tank Problem" estimate of GigaBerlin's weekly production to jump to around 2150. I...
  6. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    GigaBerlin's VINs are sequencially increasing and the subset that are exported to Norway are public (at e.g. Tesla Registration Stats), so the "German Tank Problem" is perfectly suited to estimate GigaBerlin's production: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problem With the expectation...
  7. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Regardless of the structural pack and gigacasting considerations, there are a couple of reasons why Model S/X could start using the 4680 (or if need be a 46XX, XX < 80) cell: 1) If the cost of the battery cell is increasingly influenced by the cost of the raw materials (as seems to be the case...
  8. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    With Tesla having now weathered massive, global supply chain issues during a couple of pandemic years and with Tesla having lots of cash, is it too much to expect that they - unlike the German government - have had just a modicum of foresight and have gone out and bought for themselves a large...
  9. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Consider an electrical vehicle with regenerative braking and a road with a grade that this vehicle is able to climb with a given payload. Assume then that after having completed the climb that vehicle does not increase its energy, i.e. it does not: 1) increase the payload (potential energy), 2)...
  10. lklundin

    Where to hide or stash a key card on the outside of the vehicle.

    I found instructions on how to drill two holes in the key card and keep it on a string around my neck e.g. when wearing a wet-suit. Before that I kept it in a thigh pocket in my shorts under the wet-suit, but found it inconvenient to have to raise my thigh up to the point on the B-pillar where...
  11. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The musings here would deteriorate the charging experience for everyone and are so bad that I feel compelled to log in and point to more a informed discussion on the topic. Assumption: Tesla does not need to open all superchargers for non-Teslas, but can choose those that are suitable. Also...
  12. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That's actually a pity. Since Tesla's employees (via the stock compensation program) have ownership of their own factory I would have loved them and Tesla to form - as a sign of them being true Americans - the union SAM, the Socialist Auto Makers. LOL
  13. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Just an after-hours thought: Unlike some years ago I noticed that I am about the only left who who still has a (reasonably) realistic profile photo. Is that because everybody else now has to protect their privacy after they became billionaires? Either way, it's boring...
  14. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You jest, but since the US auto makers' chip shortage is now a matter of the national interest, someone from the government should demand this information before any tax-payer funded action is taken.
  15. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Actually, as communications director at PAVE Edward Niedermeyer is hard at work to actually have the government regulate against Tesla's FSD - and today he spilled the beans with "the possibility of regulatory action around driver assistance inspired by the Tesla situation". Not that I think...
  16. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    OK, so it's just a poll - but it seems to be to be a very clear signal that _many_ voters are tired of a government that gives low priority to the environment. Apart from electric cars this could relate to phasing out coal and especially (open pit) lignite power, better conditions for bicycles...
  17. lklundin

    Tesla investor car crash thread

    Right - this would assume that multiple components would be working after the crash and that the area had cell-reception (but being in a residential neighborhood there probably was). This account generally knows what they are talking about when it comes to Tesla hardware and software: "The...
  18. lklundin

    Tesla investor car crash thread

    When a Tesla crashes (defined by e.g. deployment of airbags) does it then attempt to automatically upload data related to the crash? Let's further assume that the Tesla catches fire destroying all storage devices within e.g. a minute of the crash. How much and what kind of data would the car...
  19. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Contributing to this deluge of incredible assertions regarding the accident is likely the fact that the police officer who responded to the accident right out asserted that no one was driving. While to me this seems to be a wholly inappropriate and untimely statement from a responding police...
  20. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Three years ago a fiery, fatal Tesla accident could cause the SP to dip significantly. With the company much bigger and with many more cars on the road I expect the effect of this recent tragedy to be less.
  21. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla does not waste its time fighting FUD, they just execute. As for Germany, I for once drove over to see a friend IRL today (in Munich) - bringing my bicycle on the Model 3's towbar rack, so we could go for a ride together outside in the decent weather. As I park in the street he comes out to...
  22. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There seems to be a lot of speculation at this point. If accurate, this statement lends credence to AP not being an issue,
  23. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    For perspective the World has only about two dozen countries with a - granted - annual GDP greater than that. If Elon Musk's (unrealized) gains would make him a trillionaire Bernie Sanders would go absolutely crazy - and I guess a fair number of teslanaires would be actual billionaires...
  24. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    After having tried about different about 20 tiny variations of a touch or swipe that would each fail by either bringing up the rear view camera or rotate the visualization of the car I cannot rule out that it does not work on my screen. But I can say with absolute certainty that the user...
  25. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    On that note, the only way I can get my Model 3 to show the tire pressure is now with voice command. So if the touch screen still has a place to touch to show this, then it is not easy to find.
  26. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I am confused about this: "Tesla emailed her an invoice". Why would Tesla email their account number to a buyer? As part of the ordering process a buyer must create an account on Tesla's server, where eventually also the invoice with payment details is placed by Tesla for download + payment by...
  27. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thanks. 10m38s and 11m28s show casts from the operational gigapress. Since the last video (I saw) from there, the casts are now placed in metal structures, suitable for being moved by a fork lift. Some structures hold 3 (stacked) others 5 (vertically side-by-side). There seems to be a few...
  28. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I am unsure if anyone should try this, but here is one way this could be interesting for a very aggressive (or very foolish) TSLA bull, who is already leveraged to the point that their broker will not let them buy more shares on margin: Create a combo-options trade with expiry Friday before ER...
  29. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That's the great thing about the combination of Tesla's collection of driving data, dojo and the 'learning campaigns' that they have mentioned. Tesla can simply create a prioritized list of driving skills/techniques that FSD should have and start working through the list. Eventually, it will get...
  30. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    When Tesla buys back one of their cars the software locked battery comes in handy - because depending on demand, they can then decide whether to unlock the feature prior to selling the car again. So making a severe range restriction via a software lock can work for them in this manner.
  31. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    While I have seen no sources in support of it TSLA bulls on Twitter are content to believe that the sighted, refreshed Model S clearly produced this quarter are all missing some easily added component. This would explain why Q1 formally saw no Model S production in spite of Model S being factory...
  32. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In regions (and especially at sites) with a mix of v2 and v3 (250 kW) superchargers, I would not mind paying a premium for using (i.e. for reduced risk of waiting at) the v3 stalls versus the slower ones.
  33. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That seems very likely - the part of the building you describe have pillars suitable for a bridge crane over an area identical to the existing one, see below photo. With the speed of construction I agree that it seems quite possible that Austin will get and install 6 gigapresses this year. For...
  34. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So to finalize a Cybertruck order, one needs to choose between two buttons: 1: 'I want my Cybertruck' 2: 'I want my Mama' :-)
  35. lklundin

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    You seem to have overlooked the context which is "Why not just sell and rebuy?" And with Tesla projected to post a record, taxable profit, they should be reluctant to realize additional profits from their BTC position.
  36. lklundin

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    With (a projected) record GAAP income, Tesla would not want to realize more taxable gains - so this would make sense only if at the time of the sale + re-buy the BTC to dollar price had dropped to below the initial purchase price - and if a Wash-Sale Rule would not prevent this from being a tax...
  37. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    On the topic of gigafactory foundations: "If you like that, you're gonna love this" - from South of Phase 1 of GigaShanghai: Namely a basically, enormous and very deep foundation which has been under construction for a very long time now. Is this for an even bigger Giga press or for something...
  38. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Apologies for quoting my own post but I took a look at the gigapress foundations Giga Austin and Giga Berlin. I know the cell production is a very big deal and likely the bottleneck in Tesla's production capacity, but these giga presses are fascinating. At Giga Austin I see one bridge crane...
  39. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Presumably because Burry was straddling the line between legal and illegal. In principle one way for Burry's negative tweeting to get SEC's attention would be through a short-and-distort scheme, although some would see the SEC's interference with this type of fraud as unlikely...
  40. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So far the realization of the more economical 4680 form factor has been prevented by the cell's internal resistance - since this produces heat, which cannot be quickly removed from a large volume via its relatively small surface. So I would say that at the very least other realizations of the...
  41. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes, it is the Idra OL 6100 CS gigapress. Per the video's own information, the shown gigapress is being assembled at Idra (and from the video, this is clearly not at GF3). So Idra presumably assemble the press locally, test it, disassemble it and then ship it for re-assembly at the customer...
  42. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Since the chips are tiny, it would also be cheap insurance to just order and store some more of them as a buffer against supply fluctuations.
  43. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I did not react kindly to this tweet. It's just a couple of weeks ago that some other Tesla bull tweeted their "breaking" insider scoop (to the effect that Fremont was closing down for two weeks) - that turned out to be totally misleading. In this case it is an unverified Twitter account (who is...
  44. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    During 2020 the SP went up by a factor 8.5 so it is hardly a typical year. :-)
  45. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    How much would the EPA-range of e.g. a Model 3 LR be increased, if the test was re-done - only with Chill mode enabled (making this a non-EPA range test)?
  46. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    OK, let's compare the Manhattan Project with Tesla's FSD project, from the point of view of copying: 1) the main principle behind the fission bomb was available in the open literature (Leo Szilard patented it before the war - for a reactor), much like Neural Network processing of image data, 2)...
  47. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Some days ago I posted a Youtube video from 'T-Study' - this account is methodical and clearly fluent in Chinese so worth keeping an eye on. Here is a new video reporting on GigaShanghai, basically showing that the land being worked on to the East does _not_ currently belong to Tesla and that...
  48. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Agreed. Since people here with knowledge of accounting are so happy about 'recurring revenue' it occurred to me that for non-Tesla owners to get access to the Supercharger network, they should not only have to pay-per-use (probably incl. per-unit-time to limit stall occupancy by slow chargers)...
  49. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    A mud field with some digging going on - super bullish!
  50. lklundin

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla is in business to grow - and by having 3rd party cars charge & pay - presumably at (at least) the same rate per unit time as a Tesla - at their Superchargers, they get more money (that other electricity sellers miss out on), allowing them to grow their business and the Supercharger network...