Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[NicoV]

That's so European of you

Or Mexican: My most favorite parable: The Mexican Fisherman And The Investment Banker

 

[schonelucht]

Interesting to see his evolution from ~74K to ~91K through the quarter.

Is that kind of evolution normal for him?

Yes. He’s data driven and adjusts as new data comes in.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think shorts must be stupid or ignorant or dishonest (or all three) to deny what is coming. People say computers will never drive better than humans, or at least not for many years, but that's what they said about chess and Go and poker and Jeopardy.

(skip to 42:00)

Wow. That video on AI is a must see (in its entirety). I've had trouble wrapping my brain around a number of facets of AI but that video was very helpful.

I think the people who think autonomous driving is well off into the future are mostly ignorant and stupid but I'm sure some of the shorts fall partly into the category of dishonest.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I put the probability of a customer car rolling out before end of year to be very *high* -- you don't need much of a supply chain to get those first dozen cars out, and you want to run all the machinery through its paces -- but I also think that obstacles will prevent *volume production* from happening until Q1/Q2.

Agreed. Even though there has been a lot of progress at GF3, arguably building the shed is the easiest and most visually notable part of the construction process.

I'd be amazed if they could fit out all the services, put the manufacturing lines in place and calibrate them to the level of precision required, have the supply network producing enough parts and train enough staff to have a line humming at 1k per week or more without any hiccups that slow production.

We are now less than 6 months until the end of the year, that is a mountain of work that needs to be organised almost flawlessly.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Airframes are hard. I mean, really really asterisking hard. The government testing for them to be approved is really slow, too.

Given how busy Tesla is, what I think is much more likely would be Tesla selling powertrain kits to the other airplane manufacturers: batteries, chargers, maybe even motors and propellers, but letting someone else do the obnoxious airframe validation. Tesla's use of cylindrical cells makes it very possible for them to create small "airworthy" battery modules which could be packed into the airframe in whatever manner was appropriate for the particular plane.

It does make sense to just sell parts to airplane manufacturers, however it doesn't sound much at all like Elon. My guess is that he would create a new business for aircraft and ask himself if his new company could buy parts from Tesla.

 

[hobbes]

A little puzzle that even took me a moment to figure out even I actually knew what I was looking at:
View attachment 425312

Ah. Nice one. I got the answer, after some hard thinking. ;-)

If even Norwegians have to think for that one, maybe I should solve it for everyone else (although the ratings suggest that some people got it also).
The list I posted is Norway´s top 10 for June, and the thing is it is for all cars, not only electric. But you don´t find a single model that does not exist at least in a hybrid version, so at first I thought they changed the reporting to EV/hybrid only. Only much later in the ranking there are a few cars that I could confirm only ship as ICE (like Volkswagen T-Roc). Times are a-changin´ and Norway is still way ahead!

 

[Silentk]

Full review:

2019 Tesla Model S review: Familiar, yet oh so much better

 

[Tslynk67]

People need to lighten up. Having critical thoughts doesn’t put someone in cahoots with the shorts or big oil. Tsla fans were badgering an early Tesla owner and repeat Tesla buyer who also is interested in the Taycan and the move to sustainable transport. His interest is other companies stepping up and moving to EV’s is proof he’s a traitor and “war criminal” of some sort. Please don’t go out of your way to make new tslaq fans. Being a zealot or j-hole is no way to win fans and friends.
There’s a lot of bad journalism that’s due to not getting it and probably much less due to corruption. Cathie Wood posted today about analysts not understanding amazon back in the day. No cabal of evil, just short sited people who didn’t understand the business. In retrospect, the thing about amazon wasn’t the retail business, but their dedication to new opportunities and ability to implement. Tesla’s advantage isn’t EV’s, batteries or self driving per se, it’s all of that, but it’s the constant innovation and ability to build on each layer building and their vertical integration.

Anyhow, please try be kind or at least be cool. Telling people they’re monsters is not likely to win them over to your side.

You'll be talking about Dennis - Dennis (@ClarkDennisM) | Twitter - there, I guess, who says he had some "bad experiences with Tesla" and now bats for $TSLAQ - he spreads the FUD and BS as good as BabyCharts and ToiletBoy, putting down Tesla and Musk at any opportunity.

He talks-up every other EV as a Tesla killer. Shame, he seems like a nice guy over all and he's quite the EV evangelist otherwise, but his hatred of Tesla makes him look bitter and petty.

 

[Tslynk67]

View attachment 425532

Full review:

2019 Tesla Model S review: Familiar, yet oh so much better

If a Model S only gets a 9.5 for performance, what merits a 10???

 

[Dan Detweiler]

If a Model S only gets a 9.5 for performance, what merits a 10???

Falcon Heavy

Dan

 

[Tslynk67]

Today Elon Musk called out wsj reporter Charley Grant for potential ties to Jim Chanos.

Everyone who tracks Tesla closely knows the history of Charley and his negative narrative on TSLA. What was interesting to see if there was some truth to being linked to Jim Chanos and serving as his mouthpiece to the financial community.

Let’s go down the rabbit hole....

——

Check out this article:
How Jim Chanos Uses Cynicism, Chutzpah — and a Secret Twitter Account — to Take on Markets (and Elon Musk)

Chanos can appear world-weary and somewhat guarded — but, as the saying goes, in every cynic beats the bleeding heart of an idealist. “There’s more than a little of the crusader in him,” says longtime friend Jim Grant, founder and editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. “He would like to clean up Wall Street. He would like to improve the quality of corporate reporting. He would like to rid Wall Street of the scoundrels and clean up corporate management.”

Charley’s Dad’s BFF - a little sloppy quote they probably regret

——
Jim Chanos has been short other very specific stocks:

—-
Caterpillar

Charley writes about it - helps out
Why Caterpillar Rolled Over

——

Valeant

No way - guess whose back caddying for Mr chanos on the back nine:
Valeant assets good, but debt burden an issue: Grant

——-
Jimbo shorts Mallinckrodt

Charley lends a hand
These Drug Companies Are Too Frail to Cure

——-

Jim calls out Uber
Legendary short vendor Jim Chanos: Uber and Lyft went public because they’d to, now not because they wished to – BrowseDesk

Charley calls out Uber and Jim responds via Twitter handle
Charley Grant on Twitter


Could go on and on...

Good work! Incredible coincidences perhaps? For those in the USA, I think this merits some official complains to our dear friends at the SEC, no?

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Just saw this:

" Breaking News:

Director of Shanghai Development and Reform Commission: Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai is going smooth, on track to start production by the end of this year.

@Tesla @elonmusk

finance.ifeng.com/c/7nyze1bJN5P "

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

My take: when it comes to punctuality, you just don't mess with the Chinese government, if they said it would be done, then it will be done, by hook or by crook.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Just saw this:

" Breaking News:

Director of Shanghai Development and Reform Commission: Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai is going smooth, on track to start production by the end of this year.

@Tesla @elonmusk

finance.ifeng.com/c/7nyze1bJN5P "

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

My take: when it comes to punctuality, you just don't mess with the Chinese government, if they said it would be done, then it will be done, by hook or by crook.

Complete translation:

On July 2, Ma Chunlei, deputy secretary-general of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government and director of the Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission, said at the press conference of “Deepening Reform and Opening up – Comprehensively Enhancing Shanghai's Urban Energy Level and Core Competitiveness” held by the State Council Information Office. Tesla New Energy Vehicle Project is progressing smoothly and has entered the stage of production equipment installation and is expected to be put into operation by the end of this year. (Jiangyan)

 

[22522]

Airframes are hard. I mean, really really asterisking hard.

Is this still true with the latest FEA like tools?

 

[LN1_Casey]

My take: when it comes to punctuality, you just don't mess with the Chinese government, if they said it would be done, then it will be done, by hook or by crook.

That belief is the reason why I'm fairly certain that there will be more than just a few Tesla model 3's produced by the end of Q4. They will get shiznit done. It's not like they're stationary on hiring or supplies, or installation of the product lines as the finish building out parts of the building, or the power terminal.

I'd say the factory will produce somewhere between 5k-15k Model 3's by Q4.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

That belief is the reason why I'm fairly certain that there will be more than just a few Tesla model 3's produced by the end of Q4. They will get shiznit done. It's not like they're stationary on hiring or supplies, or installation of the product lines as the finish building out parts of the building, or the power terminal.

I'd say the factory will produce somewhere between 5k-15k Model 3's by Q4.

Yeah, this "guy" f**ks.

 

[bhtooefr]

If a Model S only gets a 9.5 for performance, what merits a 10???

Having looked through the past year of their reviews, the only 10s I found:

2020 McLaren 720S Spider review: Treat yo self
2018 McLaren 720S review: Raw power meets refined performance (same thing, just not a convertible)
2018 Porsche 911 GT3: Sports car perfection
2018 Mercedes-AMG GT R review: Bringing a gun to a knife fight
2018 Lamborghini Huracán Performante review: Supercar superstar

And the Model S not beating those in whatever their performance metric is, honestly, is perfectly fair. It's a much bigger vehicle, that's much less performance-oriented. That's fine, this is what the Roadster is for.

And, there's a lot of stuff that's nominally competition against the Model S Performance that is not getting even a 9.5 for performance.

 

[Tslynk67]

Having looked through the past year of their reviews, the only 10s I found:

2020 McLaren 720S Spider review: Treat yo self
2018 McLaren 720S review: Raw power meets refined performance (same thing, just not a convertible)
2018 Porsche 911 GT3: Sports car perfection
2018 Mercedes-AMG GT R review: Bringing a gun to a knife fight
2018 Lamborghini Huracán Performante review: Supercar superstar

And the Model S not beating those in whatever their performance metric is, honestly, is perfectly fair. It's a much bigger vehicle, that's much less performance-oriented. That's fine, this is what the Roadster is for.

And, there's a lot of stuff that's nominally competition against the Model S Performance that is not getting even a 9.5 for performance.

Well that's a pretty exotic list, which says a lot about Model S. I've no doubts that in the hands of a good driver, they would destroy a MS around a track, but in the hands of the common man, the MS will destroy all the above at every red light, hell, my 2 year-old MX will likely do that too, with 6 passengers and their luggage

 

[Tslynk67]

Hmmmm, suddenly getting some upward movement in pre-market. Did someone get hold of the delivery report already?

 

[Creekstalker]

Looks like the Tesla Europe Chief, someone named Jan Oehmicke, is leaving the company.

That should help with the awkward silence at the TSLAQ table for a little while.

Premarket up $ 0.84 at 7:12 EST.