Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Agree Ihor’s data and what he says can not be trusted.

But I doubt what he said would be good for his clients though, he said those things to have more clients, not necessarily in their best interests though.

Seems he would never say “a squeeze is coming, be careful”, but very willing to say “that was a squeeze, now it’s safe”.

I disagree with that. Ihor calling it a squeeze is not going to make it a squeeze. His job, if he wants to do his clients a favor, is to make longs think this is as good as it gets. So, when they are successful in knocking the price down a few bucks, the move will get magnified by longs selling like lemmings. At least that seems to be the only strategy they have available to them at this point in time. Tomorrow they might try to knock it down a bit.

But something tells me it's not going to be very effective. We have some old longs with an iron grip on their shares and some new longs who haven't seen enough capital appreciation to be impressed yet. And a story that doesn't get much better than this, even when looking out three or four years.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I think it is about time for me to place my 420.69 stop limit order

missed it by that much...

 

[JustSaying]

Serious advice for shorts:

And if you don't, sit down put your head between your legs and kiss your A$$ goodbye....

 

[humbaba]

so a close in the green, but the battle for $420 went against Thucydides, I mean the longs lost it. For today.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Gotta say during this rally, the most important aspect to me is how stable and consistent the stock has been on a daily basis. The intraday retracements and the fact that we're not really gapping up in the mornings( the stock increases has mostly come in the actual morning trading first 1 to 2 hours and not that much from pre-market) tells me the rally has pretty strong legs and that each high is setting new base levels. I've been expecting a strong retracement of 4 to 5% back to the 380-390 levels but it's becoming less likely. Hopefully I didnt just jinx it

 

[wipster]

All in all, not a bad start to a short week!

Half day tomorrow?

 

[M3Rider]

Took delivery of my M3P this morning, at the same time our stonk hit $420. Next stop $696.69 by March
View attachment 492067

Paid for by shorts, I assume Nice!

 

[wipster]

Gotta say during this rally, the most important aspect to me is how stable and consistent the stock has been on a daily basis. The intraday retracements and the fact that we're not really gapping up in the mornings( the stock increases has mostly come in the actual morning trading first 1 to 2 hours and not that much from pre-market) tells me the rally has pretty strong legs and that each high is setting new base levels. I've been expecting a strong retracement of 4 to 5% back to the 380-390 levels but it's becoming less likely. Hopefully I didnt just jinx it

You should change your name to StarFoxisUp!

 

[MC3OZ]

While we both are arguing based on incomplete data, our positions couldn't be more different:

• I pointed out that the behavior you observed is consistent with Tesla's stated goals and capabilities, is consistent with standard industry practices and aligns well with the economic interests of Tesla.
• Your suggestion that HW2 can run HW3 networks and that Tesla is performing a seemingly pointless HW3 upgrade intentionally is contrary to Tesla's stated goals, contrary to industry practices and is also harmful to Tesla economically.

It is your extraordinary position that has the higher burden of proof.

HW3 exists for a reason and with Deepscale Tesla could possibly squeeze a bit more out of HW2.

You can both be right....

It might be possible to squeeze those visualisations into HW2, but Tesla has chosen not to do that.

Instead they have opted for an expensive upgrade for HW2 to HW3, that might be intentional as it is inevitable and they want to get it over with. Or it might be 100% essential to run these visualisations with reasonable stability.

A requirement for more compute power and bigger NNs seems logical to me, as part of the process of solving FSD,
I don't doubt those bigger NNs exist somewhere, but perhaps only a select group of cars are currently using them, only an insider would know if they exist and who is using them.

 

[humbaba]

All in all, not a bad start to a short week!

Half day tomorrow?

a short day for some short sellers?

This is the fourth consecutive all time high at close. Unlike the doubtful I don't see a fall as being required, but at some point I do expect to not set a new all time high.

 

[Duffer]

I'm pretty sure @verygreen is wrong here: Elon disclosed it last year that the NoA neural nets already utilize about 80% of HW2"s GPU capacity.

Traffic cones were a HW3-only feature, I believe they were the test run for this week's "FSD sneak preview", which is uploading the new, large networks to HW3.

It was estimated end of last year by @jimmy_d that the new, much larger FSD networks could run on HW2 at around one FPS only. There's no way they could be run on HW2.

If Tesla was running stop sign and traffic light networks on HW2 then it must have been down-scaled versions to collect training data. Down-scaled networks would "work" on HW2, but with a far too high error rate. They are good enough to collect initial training data, but the networks would have to switch to HW3 before they are reliable enough to make actual driving decisions.

@verygreen is also basically assuming that Tesla is intentionally reducing their test coverage by switching to HW3, which is nonsensical on its face - why would Tesla do that?

I have a 2017 AP2.5/MCU1 Model S. Based on my cars delayed reaction (braking) while still seeing displayed on screen traffic conditions that no longer exist, my guess is that both NoA and Autosteer (on surface streets) use at least 80% if not more of the HW 2.5's capacity.

As a side note, my car has correctly responded to traffic signals (both red and green) at the end of off ramps. Then botched the follow on left turn. Oh well, she still has a learner's permit.

 

[Don TLR]

Is Elon surfing TMC?

 

[SMAlset]

Saw a tweet that Mark S. cut his TSLA short position by 50%.....tweet is gone now.....it was 'hastaged' to @ReflexFunds IIRC

Correct - it was what looks like a letter to his fund "investors". Tweet might have been deleted on copyright grounds? It doesn't really matter: Spiegel was clearly margin called and he had to reduce positions. He says he is still 10% TSLA short and busy writing calls. I wish every one of his call contracts to be exercised by happy longs.

You’ll find it here (in #116112 post)

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

 

[wipster]

a short day for some short sellers?

This is the fourth consecutive all time high at close. Unlike the doubtful I don't see a fall as being required, but at some point I do expect to not set a new all time high.

May not happen until the first week of 2020 though when you see some profit taking in the new tax year. I know I may pay for some Xmas gifts with TSLA profits early next year... after P/D announcement of course.

 

[verygreen]

is consistent with standard industry practices and aligns well with the economic interests of Tesla.

I disagree here.

What you are arguing is Tesla needs to split (largely the same) development into two branches, one for HW2.5 and one for HW3. This is neither a standard practice nor aligns well with their economic interests.

You cannot claim that they will freeze HW2.x in place and don't do any more development there because there are thousands of people that paid for EAP which is a huge subset of "FSD" that has not been finished yet.

As such they are doing the most sensible thing - which is develop a single codebase that would work on both. They then went the extra mile to disable some functionality on hw2.5 in the UI while fully retaining it in the underlying system.

Your suggestion that HW2 can run HW3 networks and that Tesla is performing a seemingly pointless HW3 upgrade intentionally

I suggested no such thing and it's just your imagination.

They are compiling same/very similar similar NNs for HW2 and for HW3 (which makes sense in light of the above about conserving development effort), but that does not mean hw3 upgrade is pointless (I've no idea how important that is, for all I know they might run the NNs on hw3 at higher fps).
My problems is they seem to be deliberately turning off certain visualizations for no good reason. Even if it's less perfect on hw2.5, what's the problem with letting people see it? Seems to be a wasted PR opportunity to demonstrate "see how much better hw3 performs!" (since right now there's no difference I can feel between the two in any way when in operation)

 

[BenPrice]

May not happen until the first week of 2020 though when you see some profit taking in the new tax year. I know I may pay for some Xmas gifts with TSLA profits early next year... after P/D announcement of course.

I’m not indicative of the market forces, but there is no way in hell I’m selling anything until P&D.

On a side note, if it’s good I’ve already got my P100D picked out. (Probably shouldn’t be rolling $2x,xxx In short term options, but they were only $1,xxx in options 8 days ago lol)

I’ll name my S “450C”

Lol.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Took delivery of my M3P this morning, at the same time our stonk hit $420. Next stop $696.69 by March
View attachment 492067

With badge and spoiler! Schweet.

 

[CaliBear1]

WTF Schwab!

 

[mad474]

Will regret this but just placed my first try in day trading: [email protected] (~381 EUR)

Ugh! Order didn't execute. Glad to keep them

 

[Tslynk67]

Yep, those are unreal.
The one I bought @3.50 on @SpaceCash recommendation is almost 5x.
I was stupid to sell 2 more to pay for the remaining...

I think any options picked up mid-year onwards are likely quite profitable now.

As for all those puts, awwwww.