Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tinm]

Tweety Niedy is a 24/7 lurker (or one of the trolls?) of this very thread.

E.W. Niedermeyer on Twitter

Hey tweety, can you give us a TLDR of your fantasy fiction novel?

Acvording to Amazon, August 20th.

https://www.amazon.com/Ludicrous-Un...1948836128&dpPl=1&dpID=41kgDigxRHL&ref=plSrch

But I can confidently guarantee you’re going to want my upcoming Tesla book instead. Shh. Nuff said.

 

[UncaNed]

He is absolutely correct. The fact that short covering is being achieved with the SP moving down corroborates his explanation.

Therefore, Model Y production, FSD success, profitable quarters, and Tesla being in the S&P 500 or not - all are essentially irrelevant to SP?

 

[KarenRei]

Acvording to Amazon, August 20th.

https://www.amazon.com/Ludicrous-Un...1948836128&dpPl=1&dpID=41kgDigxRHL&ref=plSrch

But I can confidently guarantee you’re going to want my upcoming Tesla book instead. Shh. Nuff said.

Dang, you can't leave a review yet

 

[schonelucht]

FSD means no hands on wheel, EAP means hands on wheel or the car stops.

This is incorrect when it comes to the regulation (what Tesla thinks is irrelevant). Read the linked text. Specifically the definition of "Autonomous mode". It quite clearly says that both with or without a natural person or remote controller monitoring.

Edit: to echo @ReflexFunds
"An autonomous test vehicle does not include vehicles equipped with one or more systems that provide driver assistance and/or enhance safety benefits but are not capable of, singularly or in combination, performing the dynamic driving task on a sustained basis without the constant control or active monitoring of a natural person."

Nags means you are not an autonomous test vehicle and are not required to report anything.[/QUOTE]

No, that's a misrepresentation of what is stated. The distinction is made on designed capability, not on the actual mechanics of the driver controlling the car. Also, even then it is not the nag but the physical handling that is required that shut up the nag that plausibly could have been the defining marker as you correctly identified above when you claimed it's "Hands on wheel" that makes the distinction. The DMV made specific changes in November 2017 to exactly close that loophole by replacing the wording of "active physical control" with "supervising the autonomous technology’s performance of the dynamic driving task".

 

[schonelucht]

An FSD beta testing vehicle, equipped with the "AutoPilot Nag" mechanism, is not capable of autonomous driving on a sustained basis, because the "nag" enforces constant monitoring.

Well, that's just shifting the definition of FSD to non-autonomous driving. I obviously that Tesla is testing non-autonomous driving. Tesla however is not testing autonomous driving in California if the disengagement report briefly visible was correct and submitted lawfully.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Therefore, Model Y production, FSD success, profitable quarters, and Tesla being in the S&P 500 or not - all are essentially irrelevant to SP?

It seems well funded (externally?) shorts can drive the price down to roughly $50 to $100 below value based on revenue. If they get too ambitious, people notice it’s a red hot bargain and the price rallies up.

If they had the ability to drive the price to zero, obviously they would.

So the price will rise, along with revenue growth, just don’t expect it to reach fair valuation any time soon.

 

[shlokavica22]

If Bezos wanted to make a difference then he could buy a stake in Tesla, doesn't make sense to me. It's like his rocket company, it's nowhere near Space-X, his money would be better invested under Elon's vision.

I have a feeling that at some point he simply decided to copy Elon and use Blue Origin as a marketing engine for his name/Amazon. And then it turned in d*** contest.

 

[Yuri_G]

This is incorrect when it comes to the regulation (what Tesla thinks is irrelevant). Read the linked text. Specifically the definition of "Autonomous mode". It quite clearly says that both with or without a natural person or remote controller monitoring.

@ReflexFunds
"An autonomous test vehicle does not include vehicles equipped with one or more systems that provide driver assistance and/or enhance safety benefits but are not capable of, singularly or in combination, performing the dynamic driving task on a sustained basis without the constant control or active monitoring of a natural person."

Nags means you are not an autonomous test vehicle and are not required to report anything.

No, that's a misrepresentation of what is stated. The distinction is made on designed capability, not on the actual mechanics of the driver controlling the car. Also, even then it is not the nag but the physical handling that is required that shut up the nag that plausibly could have been the defining marker as you correctly identified above when you claimed it's "Hands on wheel" that makes the distinction. The DMV made specific changes in November 2017 to exactly close that loophole by replacing the wording of "active physical control" with "supervising the autonomous technology’s performance of the dynamic driving task".

Where does design capability go from semi to fully autonomous? If the car can go on ramp to off ramp without intervention is that FSD? If not they obviously don't need to disclose miles. I don't see why this is such a big deal. Seems like hand wringing or you don't think Tesla is working of FSD.

 

[gora321]

Christoph Wagner‏ @ChristophWagn12
Just passed a Truckload of #Tesla #Model3 near Magdeburg heading Berlin

2:40 AM - 13 Feb 2019
Christoph Wagner on Twitter

 

[gora321]

Joe Rogan‏Verified account @joerogan


I haven’t been to a gas station in 2 weeks. I feel like I’m living in the future. teslamotors https://www.instagram.com/p/BtzYhzjFyk5/?utm_source=ig_twitter_share&igshid=k7rk51ftw9xz …

5:04 PM - 12 Feb 2019
Joe Rogan on Twitter

 

[UncaNed]

It seems well funded (externally?) shorts can drive the price down to roughly $50 to $100 below value based on revenue. If they get too ambitious, people notice it’s a red hot bargain and the price rallies up.

If they had the ability to drive the price to zero, obviously they would.

So the price will rise, along with revenue growth, just don’t expect it to reach fair valuation any time soon.

Then why would TSLA ever be allowed into the S&P 500 if shorts can just keep driving it down $50 to $100 at a time? Why would the price even rise with revenue growth, and how and when could it ever reach fair evaluation?

 

[gora321]

Kristof Lambrecht‏ @Kristof_1978
On A61 direction Koblenz

BTW

Kristof Lambrecht on Twitter
11:21 PM - 12 Feb 2019

 

[gora321]

Kelvin Yang‏ @KelvinYang7


Exchanged with sales rep: ~80% of orders are placed without test drive, because 1) lack of test drive vehicle. 2) free Autopilot. 3) 3 days return policy

5:12 AM - 13 Feb 2019
Kelvin Yang on Twitter

 

[Hock1]

Therefore, Model Y production, FSD success, profitable quarters, and Tesla being in the S&P 500 or not - all are essentially irrelevant to SP?

Not sure of the relevance of your question. What Artful Dodger is describing has to do with the day-to-day mechanics of the way the market can be manipulated in any given stock. And I agree with him. Has nothing to with all the great things happening with our Company.

 

[gora321]

1. TESLARATI‏ @Teslarati 6h6 hours ago
   Porsche Taycan prototype’s large brakes hints at serious track performance
   
   Porsche Taycan prototype's massive brakes hint at serious track performance
   
2. 
   Alex‏ @alex_avoigt 1h1 hour ago
   Large Breaks at a BEV are a no good sign. You transform energy of movement into heat mainly and that energy is lost or consumed. Small breaks would be a good sign instead. As we can see at Tesla P3 the break size is not an indication for track performance.
   

Alex on Twitter

 

[gora321]

James Stephenson‏ @ICannot_Enough
Attention journalists and other Tesla haters: looks like Tesla is now stashing unsold inventory in Long Term Parking lots around the greater San Francisco area. Thanks for the Shorty Ground Force contribution, @gwestr ! 1/2

4:10 AM - 13 Feb 2019

1. 1. 
      James Stephenson‏ @ICannot_Enough 2h2 hours ago
      Never mind. I just zoomed out.
      
      
      

James Stephenson on Twitter

 

[gora321]

Watch out! I warned you! Can hurt your brains!
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[schonelucht]

Where does design capability go from semi to fully autonomous?

Domain limitations (like, only on highways, etc) make it still fall under the scope of the report. See definition (f) in the text and its further uses.

(But Tesla has been quite clear that its design approach to autonomous driving is not about 'cherry picking' certain domains in which it works and leaving others aside. Like Elon said about the transcontinental drive : making it work on a specific route does not count. So even if there was a small domain loophole, the nature of Tesla's development make it unusable)

If the car can go on ramp to off ramp without intervention is that FSD?

It's not about if a car can do it. It's about is it designed to. If a car is designed to perform the full dynamic driving task of just one Californian public on-ramp, then it falls under the scope of this text. A car that isn't designed to do so but happens to do it by chance isn't covered, a car that is designed to do so but needs a disengagement due to a bug is covered.

Seems like hand wringing or you don't think Tesla is working of FSD.

The state of autonomous driving development within Tesla is very material to its stock performance and merits a lot more hand wringing. Since the public statements from the company and its representatives regarding its development program have overwhelmingly not been met or later have been shown to be doctored, scrapped or both, the best we have are legally mandated disclosures. These disclosures are in no way supportive of the idea that Tesla is close to a breakthrough.

 

[gora321]

Daneish B Lightning‏ @DanLightT
City of Amsterdam has arrived with Tesla Model 3 amongst some X and S!!

so exited!! #cityofamsterdam #teslamodel3 #delivery #soon #drammenhavn #drammenport @Tesla @TeslaClubNorway @elonmusk

2:26 AM - 13 Feb 2019
Daneish B Lightning on Twitter

 

[PhaseWhite]

With the news of GM and Amazon in discussion to invest in Rivian and the previous discussion about all the battery mega factories slated to come online in the next few years it is obvious that a ton of capital is being deployed in EV investment. I think Tesla and Musk has made a mistake in not taking more capital from investors. Several have tried but Musk has decided not to raise capital. Why? Tesla has an awesome road map, and sure they will probably be able to fund it, but Tesla could grow faster and alleviate much of the liquidity concerns by raising 5B through an equity offering. I think the stock would go up, even with the dilution as it would accelerate growth.