Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

I don't understand why anyone uses Windows either, it's so incredibly crap. I'm forced to do so at work though, I'd be much more productive if they'd let me use a Mac.

I use Mac and like it but generally speaking I think that the entire industry hasn't move on much. Mac screenshot from 10 years ago. Where was Tesla then?

Windows - blah. Even ioS - having 1000 apps to download on your iPhone is clearly wrong. Ripe for disruption.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Except that the regulation explicitly says that is not enough to get out of the requirements. (emphasis mine)



Every single other manufacturer in the program also has a safety driver actively monitoring and controlling the system yet they still report. As required by regulation.

Your straightforward explanation therefore does not pass fact checking.

I'm pretty sure Tesla uses this condition to avoid the disclosure requirements:
" An autonomous test vehicle does not include vehicles equipped with one or more systems that provide driver assistance and/or enhance safety benefits but are not capable of, singularly or in combination, performing the dynamic driving task on a sustained basis without the constant control or active monitoring of a natural person."

It's obvious that Tesla does not report its Autopilot testing. Do you think every new Autopilot software capability has been pushed straight to the customer fleet without any real world testing?

 

[Buckminster]

It's quite possible that no other manufacturer will make much impact on the market - Rivian or GM. Apple could have dominated the phone market even more, but they chose to stay premium. Tesla are not looking like they will follow that path.

 

[schonelucht]

I'm pretty sure Tesla uses this condition to avoid the disclosure requirements:
" An autonomous test vehicle does not include vehicles equipped with one or more systems that provide driver assistance and/or enhance safety benefits but are not capable of, singularly or in combination, performing the dynamic driving task on a sustained basis without the constant control or active monitoring of a natural person."

It's obvious that Tesla does not report its Autopilot testing. Do you think every new Autopilot software capability has been pushed straight to the customer fleet without any real world testing?

I am not talking about autopilot. I am talking about fully self driving testing.

 

[KarenRei]

I am not talking about autopilot. I am talking about fully self driving testing.

What do you declare to be the distinction, apart from the name?

 

[mongo]

I am not talking about autopilot. I am talking about fully self driving testing.

Put it in these terms:
CA knows about EAP
CA knows Tesla is not reporting disengaments from EAP
CA has not gone after Tesla for not reporting EAP disengagements
Therefore EAP is not required to be reported

FSD means no hands on wheel, EAP means hands on wheel or the car stops.
If EAP can do all skills FSD can, but still requires hands on wheel, it is still EAP, not FSD.

Is there anything that states that EAP must be limited in functionality? Is there any other driver's assist system that requires reporting?

Edit: to echo @ReflexFunds
"An autonomous test vehicle does not include vehicles equipped with one or more systems that provide driver assistance and/or enhance safety benefits but are not capable of, singularly or in combination, performing the dynamic driving task on a sustained basis without the constant control or active monitoring of a natural person."

Nags means you are not an autonomous test vehicle and are not required to report anything.

 

[aubreymcfato]

If Bezos wanted to make a difference then he could buy a stake in Tesla, doesn't make sense to me. It's like his rocket company, it's nowhere near Space-X, his money would be better invested under Elon's vision.

Personally, every dollar that wannabe-king Bezos spends is a dollar that is now in better pockets. I'm all for him losing money. That guy is dangerous.

 

[KarenRei]

Apparently the fact that Elon responded to a Russian meme in Russian is playing really well over in Russia

"Ха-ха, офигенно" Илон Маск - Google Search

First time I've ever seen his name spelled 'Илон Маск' Круто!

ED: Hmm, interesting. Some of the articles are mentioning that Grimes is of Ukrainian ancestry, and speaks Russian - and suggested that maybe she's been teaching him. I didn't realize this I'd much prefer she engage in a musical partnership with singers like ONUKA than Azealia Banks (been listening to ХАЩІ a ton recently... it's like the new Відлік)

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Put it in these terms:
CA knows about EAP
CA knows Tesla is not reporting disengaments from EAP
CA has not gone after Tesla for not reporting EAP disengagements
Therefore EAP is not required to be reported

FSD means no hands on wheel, EAP means hands on wheel or the car stops.
If EAP can do all skills FSD can, but still requires hands on wheel, it is still EAP, not FSD.

Is there anything that states that EAP must be limited in functionality? Is there any other driver's assist system that requires reporting?

Edit: to echo @ReflexFunds
"An autonomous test vehicle does not include vehicles equipped with one or more systems that provide driver assistance and/or enhance safety benefits but are not capable of, singularly or in combination, performing the dynamic driving task on a sustained basis without the constant control or active monitoring of a natural person."

Nags means you are not an autonomous test vehicle and are not required to report anything.

Yup, I think this nails it.

Tesla can test its FSD features and still have it not officially be FSD testing. This is where the other systems differ from what Tesla is doing. Actually brilliance on Tesla's part.

Dan

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Personally, every dollar that wannabe-king Bezos spends is a dollar that is now in better pockets. I'm all for him losing money. That guy is dangerous.

Wow, that's the kind of language I hear all the time regarding Elon. I guess being rich brings out the worst in people.

Dan

 

[UncaNed]

This is the point exactly. Short sellers have effectively increased the amount of TSLA stock by about 30%.

Worse yet, the naked short-selling loophole reserved exclusively for market makers (ie: GS, UBS) means that they can create unlimited TSLA shares instantly to satisfy all Buy orders.

This means market makers effectively cap the SP at any level they choose, and further, they can drive the price down at any moment they choose, all while reaping huge profits from uninformed retail investors (c.f. Oct and Dec 2018):

View attachment 376718

So? Artful Dodger basically explained why our shares are infinitely diluted. There are very few disagrees. We're rattling on about Rivian and model Y... Is Artful Dodgers post correct on not?

 

[schonelucht]

What do you declare to be the distinction, apart from the name?

It's pretty well spelled out in the linked text. Any system designed to perform the dynamic driving task with or without a human operator falls under the regulation. Any system that is designed to release the driver from certain tedious parts of driving so they can focus and provide better input, is not. The former is autonomous driving, the latter is autopilot.

 

[SebastianR]

OT: THE first Model 3 has been delivered in Germany (same name but not me): Das erste Kunden Model 3 in Deutschland ist gelandet! • TFF Forum - Tesla Fahrer & Freunde - congrats to Sebastian!

Since we always talk of "Elon time" and complain about Tesla being too late: this is about 2 weeks ahead of the initially communicated time.

SNEAK EDIT: If Tesla is indeed quicker than anticipated in their European deliveries - this could be great for Q1 profit as it would lower the amount of cars in transit. So if they could even shave 1 week of their initial estimates this could be some 350 to 400 Million on the "right side" of profit making... (in reality probably only half of that or less since not the entire production will go to Europe at the end of the quarter).

 

[Tslynk67]

I use Mac and like it but generally speaking I think that the entire industry hasn't move on much. Mac screenshot from 10 years ago. Where was Tesla then?

Windows - blah. Even ioS - having 1000 apps to download on your iPhone is clearly wrong. Ripe for disruption.

It's also one of the great things with Mac OS, the interface evolves, but very few major changes, moving between versions is pretty painless - not to mention that it's free too

The only thing they miss is incorporating NTFS R/W, but even that's becoming less important as time goes by and USB HDD's are slowly dying away.

And just to add that I'm really happy with the app concept - keep the operating system as lean as you can, then add what you want on top.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Yup, I think this nails it.

Tesla can test its FSD features and still have it not officially be FSD testing. This is where the other systems differ from what Tesla is doing. Actually brilliance on Tesla's part.

Dan

I think the true brilliance is that Tesla's FSD is being trained and to some extent tested by over 500k customers with AP1 (c.115k) and AP2/2.5 (c.390k) cars on the road . All of these cars help to develop Tesla's technology, but those customers who have purchased the AP2 software are testing EAP & FSD to a much greater extent.

 

[Hogfighter]

Three updates from Carsonight, who is local to the Nevada Gigafactory and is regularly talking to Tesla and Panasonic factory workers:

• Current Model 3 battery pack production rate: "From the Tesla side I hear 6k+ per week sustained. I am also told Tesla might crack the 7k per week barrier, but anything more requires CapEx."
• Cell supply capacity from the Panasonic side: "I can tell you that Panasonic stands ready to double production when Tesla can handle that volume."
• The assumed new Standard Range Model 3 battery pack Grohmann assembly line: "The Grohmann machine that is being assembled now is on the third floor, where Model 3 battery packs are assembled. My sources tell me that a Grohmann machine is really a series of machines that cover an area roughly the size of a football field. There was not room for the new one going in, so they created a "fourth floor" to install it."

My take:

• The current Model 3 battery module production rate is comfortably beyond 6k/week, 7k/week possible. Since he's been reporting 6k+ for all of Q1 so far, with no downtime whatsoever, that's 36k-39 Model 3's already produced in Q1, extrapolated to 78k-84k Model 3's made in Q1, assuming no further improvements in battery pack manufacturing speed during the quarter. This is remarkably in line with my VIN numerology estimate, which is 80-84k units.
  
• The new Grohmann assembly line is huge and could churn out a large number of Standard Range battery packs.
  
• There's no Gigafactory space to quickly build Model Y lines. They'll first have to dig and pour foundations, build the factory, wait for it all to set, etc., before they can even begin Model Y tooling - i.e. I'm pretty certain the first Model Y's will roll off the lines next year.
  
• Cell supply from the Panasonic side is available once Tesla can make modules fast enough.
• I only cited statements from Carsonight which he believes to be facts, not inference or speculation. While he is a Tesla fan, he has a very good track record of separating facts from advocacy so far.

While Q1 is only halfway through, I'm getting cautiously optimistic about a Q1 Model 3 production surprise, with 25%-35% more Model 3's made than in Q4, and a hit-the-ball-out-of-the-park Q2. Assuming the macro gods cooperate.

This matters quite a bit to valuation and risk perception as well: if production goes comfortably beyond 5k/week and the $920m convertibles are repaid in cash, then all formal conditions of a Moody's upgrade of Tesla's debt are met.

Another possible sign of the increase in 3 production is that in the US, the website says Feb as delivery date if you order any configuration of Model 3. If they were in fact building just for OUS, that date would be further out. IMHO

 

[Hock1]

So? Artful Dodger basically explained why our shares are infinitely diluted. There are very few disagrees. We're rattling on about Rivian and model Y... Is Artful Dodgers post correct on not?

He is absolutely correct. The fact that short covering is being achieved with the SP moving down corroborates his explanation.

 

[KarenRei]

Half-percent up in premarket - similar but slightly above NASDAQ futures. Could be worse

 

[Tslynk67]

OT: THE first Model 3 has been delivered in Germany (same name but not me): Das erste Kunden Model 3 in Deutschland ist gelandet! • TFF Forum - Tesla Fahrer & Freunde - congrats to Sebastian!

Since we always talk of "Elon time" and complain about Tesla being too late: this is about 2 weeks ahead of the initially communicated time.

Seems to be starting up now, indeed: Tesla Welt - german Tesla Podcast on Twitter

 

[Fact Checking]

It's pretty well spelled out in the linked text. Any system designed to perform the dynamic driving task with or without a human operator falls under the regulation. Any system that is designed to release the driver from certain tedious parts of driving so they can focus and provide better input, is not. The former is autonomous driving, the latter is autopilot.

Why are you paraphrasing the regulations, instead of quoting them directly?

The regulatory text quoted by @ReflexFunds is straightforward and unambiguous:

"An autonomous test vehicle does not include vehicles equipped with one or more systems that provide driver assistance and/or enhance safety benefits but are not capable of, singularly or in combination, performing the dynamic driving task on a sustained basis without the constant control or active monitoring of a natural person."​

An FSD beta testing vehicle, equipped with the "AutoPilot Nag" mechanism, is not capable of autonomous driving on a sustained basis, because the "nag" enforces constant monitoring.

Hence Tesla's current method of FSD testing is, by the plain reading of the rules, exempt from the California autonomous vehicle testing reporting requirements.