Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

Keep an eye on Nissan, Japan’s 2nd largest automaker.

Nissan's new CEO says willing to be fired if no turnaround

 

[Paracelsus]

Don't bet on that happening. Tesla is most likely going to keep cash and pay the bond in shares. Cash is king in a growing company. Indeed one of the most odd things Tesla did was to repay the government $550M loan. I know why he did it (PR move), but it was still atypical for a growth company.

I definitely agreed with this perspective before the Cap Raise @Cosmacelf .........and honestly I would still gravitate towards it having been a share holder through many of the growing pains. But recall the level of confidence in the voices of the Tesla team during the Q4 call..........unlike any other event I had listened to since late 2012. Battery Investor Day is only a couple months away, and Elon seems certain that investment cash will be flooding in when he finally reveals what technology advancements are SO good that it blows his mind even though he already knows what it is. I failed to list Battery Investor Day in my last post as one of the main reasons that lead me to believe that Tesla has (or soon will have) enough cash on the books to intentionally cook some Shorts. Only the Tesla team has any idea how big that cash infusion will be at this point, but the tone in their voice and the words they chose to respond to Q4 questions with leads me to believe that it will be enough to feel comfortable turning up the heat on the people that slowed our path towards a more sustainable future.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - this afternoon: Tesla Model 3 Teardown Finds Technology Years Ahead Of Established Automakers

 

[Rammstein]

I kind of don’t want the stock price to go up too fast. I would be fine with 2% a day. I just don’t want to hear from friends and family everyday to sell my stock cause to them it will look like a bubble. Although, I think this latest price rally is showing them it’s not a bubble and TSLA is finding its new price discovery level.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I'm going to sell a fraction of the shares I bought for about 190 last May to get a new Model S. Thanks TSLA! I don't think I would have bought those shares if not for the collective wisdom of this forum. Thank you!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Good to be long Tesla.

I got nuthin’ other than that.

But that’s quite a lot.

At first I thought this was a haiku

 

[Curt Renz]

I kind of don’t want the stock price to go up too fast. I would be fine with 2% a day. I just don’t want to hear from friends and family everyday to sell my stock cause to them it will look like a bubble. Although, I think this latest price rally is showing them it’s not a bubble and TSLA is finding its new price discovery level.

Tell them that you can't sell now, because the taxes would be astronomical.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I have no idea what it will take or how it could be done but rest assured that if Elon can find a way to 'cook' the shorts without all his accountants quitting on the spot he will do it.

 

[Mkorpal]

I'm going to sell a fraction of the shares I bought for about 190 last May to get a new Model S. Thanks TSLA! I don't think I would have bought those shares if not for the collective wisdom of this forum. Thank you!

You stock sale is ironically feeding my shares. Thanks.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I could go on... the Ratings Agencies are embarrassing themselves honestly. If I could have got accreditation to buy the bond last year that was the easiest money I've ever seen.

I agree! I tried really hard to buy that 2025 bond, but Tesla never registered it, so only true institutions were allowed to buy it. Not registering it was a tactical mistake IMHO. That occurred on the watch of that short-time CFO between Deepak leaving and returning for a short stint.

 

[thait84]

I'm going to sell a fraction of the shares I bought for about 190 last May to get a new Model S. Thanks TSLA! I don't think I would have bought those shares if not for the collective wisdom of this forum. Thank you!

One strategy I thought was smart was where a poster mentioned they would get a loan and pay back the loan by selling stocks periodically. That was you can ride the stock appreciation and not say "This Model S cost me 1 million dollars!"

 

[Dare]

Should I sell?!?
Look at that price...I should sell...right!?!?

View attachment 512655

So the answer is........

View attachment 512656

 

[gerebgraus]

If it has more energy then it wouldn't be called 100d but some other number. 100kwh is the amount of energy in the pack.

What makes you think that it is called 100d?!

 

[gerebgraus]

Not that has been reported anywhere. Tesla specifically said that the Raven S&X used the exact same battery pack as the prior cars with no change. The more recent change Elon said was a bunch of hardware changes and cars built in the last few months would get a boost depending on how many of the changes they had gotten. So again, I don't think the pack chemistry/density has changed.

Do you have any link to something showing that it has?

When did Tesla specifically said that the current version of Model S uses the same battery pack chemistry? The chemistry change happened after the Raven introduction.

 

[MC3OZ]

I have no idea what it will take or how it could be done but rest assured that if Elon can find a way to 'cook' the shorts without all his accountants quitting on the spot he will do it.

IMO just pay pay a dividend at some stage.... even $1 per share will do ... no rush...
Or wait a few years and pay dividends more regularly...

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I have no idea what it will take or how it could be done but rest assured that if Elon can find a way to 'cook' the shorts without all his accountants quitting on the spot he will do it.

I don't think there are any shorts left to nuke from orbit. The SP ran from $180 to $960 at the peak. Outside of Chanos, every big name short we know of is out and all the retail shorts are long gone. And the rumor is Chanos's remaining short position is a mere 2% of his portfolio now, he's just keeping a token amount to prevent himself from having to admit defeat.

 

[sundaymorning]

German economy minister warns against delays to Tesla plant

Peter Altmaier, Germany’s economics minister, has warned against delays to the construction of Tesla’s (TSLA) new Gigafactory near Berlin.

In an interview with the Funke Media Group on Tuesday, Altmaier said that the electric-car plant was “of great importance for more climate protection.” He added that it was one of the most important industrial developments planned for eastern Germany in a long time.”

...

A number of business associations joined Altmaier, warning that if the factory did not get built due to severe delays, it would damage Germany’s ability to attract foreign businesses.

The Federal Association of Small and Medium-Sized Businesses (BVMW) said that “it would be a catastrophic signal from Germany to foreign investors" if the Tesla project failed because of bureaucracy and overregulation.”

 

[Rammstein]

I don't think there are any shorts left to nuke from orbit. The SP ran from $180 to $960 at the peak. Outside of Chanos, every big name short we know of is out and all the retail shorts are long gone. And the rumor is Chanos's remaining short position is a mere 2% of his portfolio now, he's just keeping a token amount to prevent himself from having to admit defeat.

Do we know what the latest short interest is?

 

[dw4ngg]

As a result of the surprise Cap raise, Tesla now has an extra $2B on the books + Q1 revenue + any FSA and ZEV credits on top of the $6B on the books at the end of Q4. I would love to see Tesla now announce that they are paying back their bond debt in cash......or at least 'mostly in cash'. This would create a need for any Bond holders who may have hedged with a naked Short position at recent share price-highs prior to the Cap Raise that expected to cover their naked short with a TSLA share valued in the $650 range to cover by buying shares in the $850 - $880 range and higher. Perhaps we are seeing some of that in today's after hours pricing? If this happens the early hemorrhaging will likely be for those naked short positions anticipating a return to the $655 bond payback range - a price range that previously held some support as @Singuy already pointed out. And that race to cover could create a race for an Exit door by many of the Shorts without deep pockets...........and others to follow. Fingers crossed we are witnessing some Elon 3-D chess once again.

Wanted to thank you again for the inspiration to get those 900 and 950 Feb 21’s I did last wk! let’s hope your scenario plays out!

 

[dc_h]

I stopped by my nearest delivery and sales site in Westmont, 16 miles west of Chicago. They have a Model 3P and a few S and X, but still limited inventory. Sales kid said they delivered most of what they had built up over Presidents Day weekend. I also spoke to the kid, young man, about the Model Y. He said they would not get anything in the showroom until at least early summer. All initial production will go directly to consumers starting in March. He thought they would likely only sell performance and AWD Y’s for 2020.
Whatever is happening with production is being sold. As opaque as the short term delivery numbers are, the trend for the year seems very positive.