Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ev-enthusiast]

BTW., I'm pretty sure Elon is going to be there.

Confirmed on twitter
Elon Musk got an invitation from German Minister of Economics Jörg Steinbach, he accepted the invitation and will attend the groundbreaking event for Giga Berlin in about 2 to 4 weeks!

 

[LN1_Casey]

You need a more positive internal monologue, Dodge

The shares I bought on Friday are up almost a hundred bucks each already. Just saying

FTFY.

I also bought a share on Friday. But I wanted to buy mooooooore.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Herbert Diess wants to sell 26m emission-free vehicles in 9 years, overtaking rivals including Tesla

Lol, that'll be quite the tail chase if Tesla produces 21m EVs in 2029...

Do you get the feeling that Diess is playing games with exponents, but has no real plan?

Cheers!

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Tesla starts shipping Model Y truckloads out of the factory - Electrek

Remember there is going to be a jump in the share price when the media finally starts reporting on imminent Model Y deliveries. CNBC, Bloomberg, Yahoo, and Reuters have said nothing so far. Maybe seeing cars on transport trucks will finally get them to do their jobs.

Are there any invites for the Model Y first deliveries party out?

 

[KarenRei]

I wonder how much quieter an electric jet would be. Is such a product remotely in the realm of future Tesla endeavors?

Arcjet rocket - Wikipedia

Usually done to enhance the ISP of monoprop rockets, but you can do the same with cold gas, incl. from a compressor. You can do so either fully via arc discharge (downsides: electrode erosion, ozone, potential NOX) or only use discharge to strike the initial arc and then heat it with induction heating (downsides: heavier system, more cooling needs, possibly still some NOX). With regards to the former, I'm pretty sure you could use a MOSFET array to autobalance large discharge currents across a large planar array (the wing itself would be a linear engine) to prevent discharges from concentrating into intense erosive arcs. And I'm pretty sure (would have to doublecheck) that I've seen some papers that go into effective ways to suppress pollutant formation from arc discharges.

Futures are green, not that it matters.

Relax, people

 

[chrsk]

Coronavirus, Schmoronavirus!!!
View attachment 517041

Back to 698 now...

 

[KarenRei]

FTFY.

I also bought a share on Friday. But I wanted to buy mooooooore.

Today I'll be reselling some of the previously-sold calls I bought back earlier. Man, I could do this over and over all day

 

[Artful Dodger]

The market surely looks like an addict that needs a shot of morphine once in a while...this does not inspire confidence.
In contrast, Tesla is stronger than ever.

In other news, last Friday my stop loss on my spread bets opened back in November was triggered (was away for work and I had to add a stop loss in case of market meltdown...so the shorts got me there ). Because I am lucky.
Lost almost 40% of my gains there from the max at 930SP. Still good returns, but this was pretty depressive.

Now the question is really what to do. Enter now and assume there is a rally. Or wait, as this could be a rally based on sand.
Any 'not advice' is welcome.

Shares, of course, holding strong. I actually plan to add more a bit later today.

"Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness, that most frightens us. We ask ourselves, Who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous? Actually, who are you not to be? You are a child of God. Your playing small doesn’t serve the world. There’s nothing enlightened about shrinking so that other people won’t feel insecure around you. We are all meant to shine, as children do."

-- Nelson Mandela​

TL;dr "Never take counsel of your fears" - Stonewall Jackson

2L:mr "HODL"

Cheers!

 

[Fact Checking]

Back to 698 now...

And now at $704. We could do this all day!

 

[Artful Dodger]

New photos of the Fremont factory outbound logistics area shows Model Y production ramping up: (teslarati.com)

Tesla Model Y are starting to show up en masse at the Fremont factory, ready for car carriers

Cheers!

 

[Fact Checking]

New photos of the Fremont factory outbound logistics area shows Model Y production ramping up: (teslarati.com)

Tesla Model Y are starting to show up en masse at the Fremont factory, ready for car carriers

Cheers!

So when Tesla announced March deliveries, conventional wisdom here on TMC was that they'd be pushing out maybe a few dozen units at the end of the quarter, as part of a "Delivery event", like they did it with the Model 3 back in 2017 or the MIC Model 3 in December in China. I.e. enough units to get the ball rolling, but not in meaningful volumes.

But they seem to have a different plan for the Model Y: these unit counts are a lot higher than just early deliveries, which means that Model Y deliveries could already make a meaningful contribution to the Q1 results, and maybe even generate some margins, above break-even?

This could also explain why they expanded invitations beyond Performance versions, if they have some real production volume to work with they'd want as many deliveries in the final two weeks of March, as close to the factory as possible.

 

[elasalle]

Did you have time to catch up on your reading yet? Specifically, did you read about the Fri Feb 28, 2020 Daily Short Selling Report from FINRA?

The "Uptick Rule" curcuit breakers were in effect for both the Thu and Fri sessions, yet naked short selling spiked to significant highs. This is EXACTLY the circumstance that the uptick rule is designed to prevent, in order to give investors time to assess their positions without the undue selling pressure of short selling. Naked short selling by MMs below the last trade price with the uptick rule in effect, simply to ease their exposure, is a plain violation of Regulation SHO. #SEC

Further, the close match which occurred between Friday's naked short volume and the single 7:07 pm After-hrs trade indicts that it is a very likely a SINGLE MARKET MAKER that was responsible for Friday's illegal proprietary naked short selling.

If there is truely a single bad actor amongst the ranks of MMs, it is the job of the #SEC to stop them, and remove their ability to distort the market.

Let's do one last piece of analysis to try to further characterize the entity responsible for Friday's naked short selling. We know that:

• there were 301,960 naked short shares sold on Friday (via FINRA)
  
• Friday's VWAP during the Pre-market and Main session was $645.95
  
• the 301,654 shared that traded at 7:07 pm sold at $674.00

Friday's naked short shares could have traded above or below the days' avg SP, but selling them ENABLED all the other short selling which occured on Fri simply by dropping the most recent sale price (thus a MM was circumventing the "uptick rule). So as a simple approx. let's just use the diff. btwn the VWAP and the After-hrs trade SP to estimate their net lost on Friday's naked shorting:

( $674.00 - $645.95 ) * 301,960 = $8,469,978​

If #SEC investigation proves that there was in fact a single MM who conducted Friday's naked shorting, then we can also reasonably ask why they felt is was important enough to spend some $8.5M dollars late Friday evening to cover their naked shorts. Are they scrambling to avoid an akward 'Failure-to-Deliver' (FTD) event?

$8.5M isn't a embarrassing amount of money for a large Wall St. broker, is it? Big investment banks like GS or MS have literally trillions of USD under managment. They don't need to scramble late at night to cover a few million bucks. No, the big banks would do it on Monday, when the Sun is up. The Rules allow 2 day settlement, they have time to located shares. Who was scrambling to cover naked shorts in the late After-hrs session on Friday, when the big players have already gone home for the weekend?

This is starting to smell like a small fish. Perhaps a medium-sized Hedge fund, one with an outsized exposure to losses in TSLA? Who has appeared on CNBC recently that might fit that M.O.?

The inference which can logically be made, and which must now be investigated by the #SEC, is that that same entity is also responsible for market-distorting naked short selling on 3-5 Feb, as well as 27-28 Feb, 2020. Every crime needs a motive. Profit, or rather fear of a large loss, is a powerful motive to commit securities crime.

Regards,
Lodger

(Compliment) Wish you worked for the SEC

 

[Artful Dodger]

So when Tesla announced March deliveries, conventional wisdom here on TMC was that they'd be pushing out maybe a few dozen units at the end of the quarter, as part of a "Delivery event", like they did it with the Model 3 back in 2017 or the MIC Model 3 in December in China. I.e. enough units to get the ball rolling, but not in meaningful volumes.

But they seem to have a different plan for the Model Y: these unit counts are a lot higher than just early deliveries, which means that Model Y deliveries could already make a meaningful contribution to the Q1 results, and maybe even generate some margins, above break-even?

This could also explain why they expanded invitations beyond Performance versions, if they have some real production volume to work with they'd want as many deliveries in the final two weeks of March, as close to the factory as possible.

Indeed, 5 days ago Tesla Daily Podcast founder Rob Mauer presented his estimate for March 2020 Model Y deliveries: (2,500 vehicles)

This is right inline with announced initial production plans of 1K/wk. Not surprisingly, that number will go up as soon as GF1 bty packs are no longer needed to support MIC Model 3 production. Plus, Panasonic has announced they have a clear path to 54 GWh annual cell capacity at GF1/Sparks. Let the ramp begin!

EDIT: Shanghai donates 500,000 masks to S. Korea. Sounds like things are well under control in Shanghai

(LEAD) Shanghai donates 500,000 masks to virus-hit Daegu | Yonhap News Agency

(Compliment) Wish you worked for the SEC

Lol, don't wish that! (I'm retired; I have NO TIME to work!) I just wish the SEC would do it's job...

Cheers!

 

[LN1_Casey]

So when Tesla announced March deliveries, conventional wisdom here on TMC was that they'd be pushing out maybe a few dozen units at the end of the quarter, as part of a "Delivery event", like they did it with the Model 3 back in 2017 or the MIC Model 3 in December in China. I.e. enough units to get the ball rolling, but not in meaningful volumes.

But they seem to have a different plan for the Model Y: these unit counts are a lot higher than just early deliveries, which means that Model Y deliveries could already make a meaningful contribution to the Q1 results, and maybe even generate some margins, above break-even?

This could also explain why they expanded invitations beyond Performance versions, if they have some real production volume to work with they'd want as many deliveries in the final two weeks of March, as close to the factory as possible.

I do find it strange that they've not yet announced a March 14th ceremony to turn over the first vehicles. I mean, it would be symbolic as a perfect 1 year time, and would fit along with the remaining March 15+ deliveries scheduled.

But wouldn't they have announced it by now for the press to attend? For the various Youtubers who gospel the truth about Tesla to schedule to attend?

 

[Mich]

oh no. futures are red again...

 

[JBRR]

Matthias Schmidt on Twitter

It appears FCA/Tesla's EU CO2 Members Pool Club are accepting new members until the end of March. Will be interesting to see if there are any takers.

keep yourself updated here:
CIRCABC - Welcome

 

[KarenRei]

This is right inline with announced initial production plans of 1K/wk. Not surprisingly, that number will go up as soon as GF1 bty packs are no longer needed to support MIC Model 3 production

They're not. Only 60% of the packs in January used Panasonic cells. And that number can expect to have fallen over time.

Plus, at the very least:

• There's ~3 weeks minimum delay before a pack is produced and when it could realistically be used in Shanghai. Without any sort of stockpiling whatsoever (something that had previously claimed was going on in past quarters to build up supply for Shanghai when Fremont wasn't able to use all of GF1's packs). Even if one assumes no stockpiling, that means that almost all of January's packs used at GF3 were actually produced in Q4.
• There was a three-week Lunar New Year shutdown (no local pack consumption at that time). GF1, however, did not shut down for the Lunar New Year.

And as for "initial production plans", 1k/wk for March would be insanely pessimistic. January was 0,8k/wk averaged up to the start of the Lunar New Year holiday. It would be embarrassingly bad if Tesla could only manage a 20% improvement over that. February delays, sure, but March? No way.

 

[StealthP3D]

I do find it strange that they've not yet announced a March 14th ceremony to turn over the first vehicles.

I think a Stealth Model Y launch is better. And it appears management agrees.

I think Elon is so tired of the BS he doesn't give a sugar anymore. Tesla was never all about pomp and ceremony, now even less so. They have put their noses to the grindstone and are dazzling with cold, hard results. And cold, hard cash. They have the product, they have the demand, just do it! The results are un-fricken-believable! (Except to those of us who know what Tesla is capable of)

Wall Street has never looked so stupid! And that's saying a lot! (Because Wall Street looks really stupid on a regular basis. This just takes it to a whole new level)

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Added more tsla +100 shrs on Friday @ $633.55

Tesla stock is off about 27% from its recent highs, worse than the comparable 14.1% decline of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and 14% decline of the S&P 500

China's record contraction in manufacturing and service sectors because of the coronavirus outbreak portends more punishment for Tesla.

Covid-19 has not only stopped production but has also broken the supply chain of production

 

[KarenRei]

Added more tsla +100 shrs on Friday @ $633.55


View attachment 517046

Tesla stock is off about 27% from its recent highs, worse than the comparable 14.1% decline of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and 14% decline of the S&P 500

China's record contraction in manufacturing and service sectors because of the coronavirus outbreak portends more punishment for Tesla.

Covid-19 has not only stopped production but has also broken the supply chain of production

If the GF3 drone video from the other day was "stopped production" with a "broken supply chain", I can't wait to see what it looks like when it's started Looks busier than the end of January, the previous production-high.