OT
Cruising Norway on vacation and gratifying to see the amount of Teslas in Molde.
Cruising Norway on vacation and gratifying to see the amount of Teslas in Molde.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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You should try out Oslo. I notice gas cars driving past my house now, since they are so noisy. Total car population now has parity between EVs and ICE cars. And Oslo is at the forefront of EV selection.
FEERSUMENDJIN
Member
and this *sugar* is what 90% of retail see as complete nonsense.
FEERSUMENDJIN
Member
I would be most excited if BYD was a licensee. They are struggling with ADAS and software and are tight with Tesla on Batteries. This would move the needle. Ford ? Meh !
FEERSUMENDJIN
Member
Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge Daily Model Y sales in Norway are my comfort blanket in times of FUD.
cheqsgravity
Member
I will be joining the vacation party in 2 days. Want to see the EV utopia in person. Renting a kia niro ev to check out state of 3rd party charging infrastructure. cnbc did a docum recently on Norway. Hopefully this is be the US soonish.
cheqsgravity
Member
I agree with the steps but some of them can happen simultaneously. Here are my version of dates of the steps. This is a possibility of how things can unfold. I agree it is more on the optimistic side. But assuming compute power getting better and training happening quicker cycles, this is becomes more and more possible.
FSD V12.5.x 8/8/24: Limited FSD-based robotaxi service with 'safety drivers' rolled out in a few US cities
FSD V12.4.x 7/7/24: FSD released in China
FSD V12.6.x 10/1/24: FSD released in Europe
FSD V12.4.x 7/20/24: Limited FSD-based robotaxi with safety drivers in some China cities
FSD V12.6.x 10/1/24: Expansion to a LOT of china cities
FSD V12.6.x 10/1/24: Expansion to entire US states
FSD V12.7.x 1/1/25: Removal of safety drivers in certain times of day/weather
FSD V12.7.x 1/1/25: Removal of safety drivers in some countries
FSD V12.10.x 6/1/25: Complete driver-free universal robotaxi service
FSD V12.10.x 6/1/25: Standard no RT vehicles can now be added to the network
Because he trusts himself to direct the development of AI more than anyone else. I do too.
My impression is Elon wants to skip the part about safety drivers.
I saw my second Cybertruck yesterday. This time I had time to roll my window down and wave like a dork.
In other news, I have an invite to configure that I've been sitting on for over a month because the share price is not 500.
In other news, I have an invite to configure that I've been sitting on for over a month because the share price is not 500.
In my opinion, you're going to be out of luck. I predict the share price will be bumpy and flat until revenues start coming in from RT. When that happens it will probably be a steep rise.I'd be happy with a ~.00542 rise per day from here (that's ~0.542%), call it a $1 per day (which becomes an ever smaller percentage) but if we held that line it'd be steeper than the old Stephenson Indicator and get us to $685 in two years, $935 in three years and if we beat that diagonal line you can name it whatever you want.
or put another way I'd gladly take a $1 a day rise for 3 years over bumpy varying amounts. It sure make my retirement planning way easier.
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cheqsgravity
Member
IMO, no. China has several services like waymo and cruise in 'supervised' robotaxi mode. This is key to getting public used to the new service while also be reassuring (with human ready to take control). IMO, this will be the unveil 8/8: complete hailing app, and uber like competitor service open in select cities in the US with 50% tesla fleet and 50% owner supplied fleet (w/ supervised driving). I just recently bought a used 2023 model 3 rwd (my 4th tesla) to be ready to have a driver (probably a paid employee) supervise the car for the network starting 8/8. Eventually the car will be ready w/o drivers maybe very soon. I would like that too, I can skip hiring the employee. But more realistic is that we have safety drivers while tech gets better. Reason to roll out w/ supervised drivers is also to show market/investors a MVP (minimal viable product) and iterate on the solution till a full robotaxi solution is achieved.
cheqsgravity
Member
Nice. I see one almost everyday living in ATX Tesla HQ. Love that people are using them for real world stuff.
I don't think it's just any nonsense. If you look at these and most any forum, people post either only positive or negative reports because it's simply less time/work. The "other" side will post things which they feel supports their case. Like that Tesla on FSD almost slamming into a train, crickets here about it from anyone, but bulls are happy to post a Waymo hitting a pole.
On Tesla partnering with a "respectable" carmaker, do note that pretty much every major manufacturer is researching automation/self driving as well which means they will abandon that if they do decide to license Tesla tech. I have doubts they would want to support a direct competitor for something they all already spend time working on (assisted driving/L2 driving).
This is of course possible, but unlike the EV charging network which they had no research/stake in, it doesn't seem as earth shattering due to the use case for when people may actually want to sleep in the back seat (long, boring drives).
GM owns Cruise, Ford has Lattitude AI, Porsche has invested in multiple firms to name a few:
Porsche taps Mobileye for automated driving functions in future models | TechCrunch
Porsche has partnered with Mobileye to bring hands-free automated assistance and navigation functions to future sports cars.
techcrunch.com
Wayve is where I'd put my $$ on (if I could).
Tesla has a lot of catching up to do on that front:
Serious question, outside of the driving piece, does anyone know what other "AI" Tesla is even keeping in house, are working on outside of his own xAi company? Feels like he started xAI because he felt snubbed, left OpenAI due to disagreements (which he help found).
He left way back in 2019 (of course, Tesla almost went under around then so it made sense...this is where a singularly focused CEO/company makes sense):
Elon Musk Confirms Exit From Openai Over Disagreements to Focus on Tesla, Spacex
Billionaire Elon Musk confirmed that he exited OpenAI, an artificial intelligence research group, on “good terms” amid disagreements with team members over the project’s direction. Musk also cited a desire to focus on “solving a painfully large number of engineering and manufacturing problems at...
Like that other comment someone had that Tesla will possibly replace NVDA with their own AI chip, there are too many wars to fight for a company with limited resources/$$ to go after it.
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Hybrids aren't any cheaper than many EVs, and certainly more expensive to operate and maintain. That Yahoo link is pretty FUDdy, most adjoining articles are BEV negative.I always see this posted and just think the market is just asking for Hybrids vs. pure EVs. A lot of bulls here don't just seem to get other people's use case since people have a tendency to relate or imagine everyone else is like them. Cost is a big reason and every EV maker and used EV prices have tanked massively, Tesla included. They are pivoting for better or worst because making more EVs simply isn't going to sell more as many cars are sitting on lots. Early adopters already bought until the new EV replacement.
At these price points, with these interest rates, just because you make them doesn't mean people are going to be buying them (all brands), though the smaller new EV makers all had some growth.
This is from the Aussie market:
Tesla 'graveyard' photo shows major shift in Aussie EV market
The dramatic images show a major change trickling through the EV market – and it's a win for consumers.au.news.yahoo.com
I've said this before, but If US really wanted complete EV adoption, let everything from China in, $10k EVs, no tariffs, etc (I'm not for this and don't really think there is such a thing as "free" markets). Problem is still 50% of the US population doesn't like EVs for political reason to start, renters can't easily charge overnight and cost is still too high for new EVs.
Here's a differing view, published on the same day:
May EV sales 2024: Market recovery amid price cuts
Electric vehicle sales bounced back in May, as drivers took advantage of dropping prices of numerous all-electric models.
www.mynrma.com.au
"The latest figures from Vfacts saw 8974 EVs sold in Australia, accounting for 8.4 per cent of the market. This was up from 6.4 per cent dip in April that saw numerous outlets report that the EV market is falling apart."
"In May, Tesla sold 3567 vehicles, jumping up from 34 per cent EV market share in May to 40 per cent of market. While it’s a far cry from the September 2022 highs of 82 per cent when the Tesla Model Y arrived, the US EV maker is still selling double that of its competitors and stayed (just) in the top ten brands of the broader market."
What's your agenda here, bro?
philw1776
Member
Tried to rent a model 3 Tesla for my trip yesterday. Guy at check out told me they were not available as they go first thing in the morning.
I'm a huge robotaxi bull, and even I find that timeline to be unbelievably optimistic.
If all of that depended upon increasing safety of FSD then your timeline might work. But the nuts and bolts of expanding the network requires a lot more than just progress on FSD. We could list a thousand things that Tesla needs to do before we get to your 6/1/25 prediction of "Complete driver-free universal robotaxi service." And all those things would have to go off without a hitch to get there in one year.
But hey, if I'm wrong, I'm rich. So I won't mind being wrong one little bit!
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Hybrids aren't any cheaper than many EVs, and certainly more expensive to operate and maintain. That Yahoo link is pretty FUDdy, most adjoining articles are BEV negative.
Here's a differing view, published on the same day:
May EV sales 2024: Market recovery amid price cuts
Electric vehicle sales bounced back in May, as drivers took advantage of dropping prices of numerous all-electric models.
"The latest figures from Vfacts saw 8974 EVs sold in Australia, accounting for 8.4 per cent of the market. This was up from 6.4 per cent dip in April that saw numerous outlets report that the EV market is falling apart."
"In May, TeslasoldDELIVERED 3567 vehicles, jumping up from 34 per cent EV market share in May to 40 per cent of market. While it’s a far cry from the September 2022 highs of 82 per cent when the Tesla Model Y arrived, the US EV maker is still selling double that of its competitors and stayed (just) in the top ten brands of the broader market."
What's your agenda here, bro?
Not a dig at you, but the commentary from the media
DELIVERED
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