So I understand everyone has their own risk tolerance level. I am a long and a bull, accumulating since 2013 and so I am still very happy with my returns. I have also burned myself a few times trying to time the market, so I was on a buy and hold strategy.
However... I am actually thinking about selling today with this slight green shade and going all cash for a while.
I am conflicted of course. There are few short term positives for Tesla right now, like Model Y deliveries, a possibly OK to good Q1 (better than what the Street expects) even with Corona impact and then later possibly announcing new batteries once again leapfrogging the industry by half a decade or more. But, this health crisis and the stock market crash will still probably get worse before it gets better. (Some people I respect on this forum, as well as the likes of Tesla analysts like Rob Maurer and investor Chamath Palihapitiya seem to be of this opinion too).
Even as we go into a recovery phase from the virus, the impact on the economy may be lasting, possibly impacting Q2 and beyond for Tesla. Additionally, there could production shutdowns due to health concerns or supply chain disruptions, not mentioning any unexpected shocks like Elon or world leaders getting sick. Not that I don't expect them to recover, the psychological effect would be huge though.
Long story short, while I fully believe the company and even the stock will go back to growth once the dust settles, I think the next few months are super uncertain.
I know most of us are in the buy and hold camp here, but these are not normal times. So I'd like to hear some thoughts for a reality check here. Am I being rational in light of current events, or did I let the fear of this pandemic get to me?
