Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

I'm 64 and I will eat rice and beans before I let the lousy bastages have my shares.
Yeah I'm long and strong!

Me too, except I haven't been 64 for a few years.

 

[mrdoubleb]

So I understand everyone has their own risk tolerance level. I am a long and a bull, accumulating since 2013 and so I am still very happy with my returns. I have also burned myself a few times trying to time the market, so I was on a buy and hold strategy.

However... I am actually thinking about selling today with this slight green shade and going all cash for a while.

I am conflicted of course. There are few short term positives for Tesla right now, like Model Y deliveries, a possibly OK to good Q1 (better than what the Street expects) even with Corona impact and then later possibly announcing new batteries once again leapfrogging the industry by half a decade or more. But, this health crisis and the stock market crash will still probably get worse before it gets better. (Some people I respect on this forum, as well as the likes of Tesla analysts like Rob Maurer and investor Chamath Palihapitiya seem to be of this opinion too).

Even as we go into a recovery phase from the virus, the impact on the economy may be lasting, possibly impacting Q2 and beyond for Tesla. Additionally, there could production shutdowns due to health concerns or supply chain disruptions, not mentioning any unexpected shocks like Elon or world leaders getting sick. Not that I don't expect them to recover, the psychological effect would be huge though.

Long story short, while I fully believe the company and even the stock will go back to growth once the dust settles, I think the next few months are super uncertain.

I know most of us are in the buy and hold camp here, but these are not normal times. So I'd like to hear some thoughts for a reality check here. Am I being rational in light of current events, or did I let the fear of this pandemic get to me?

 

[dl003]

Chances are if it passes the house, it will pass the senate
The senate majority leader basically told pelosi: you work with the secretary (mnuchin). Then house reps also rejected the first effort based on abortion measure. So if Mnuchin agrees on this proposal, chances are house reps will ok it. If both house reps and mnuchin ok it, reps majority senate will pass it
If it passes both houses, Trump will ok it because it was him who sent Mnuchin to work with pelosi. Or maybe he wont. My brain cannot comprehend the level of ****uptery if he vetoes.

 

[dl003]

What is wrong with them?

Actually the original plan was to have a recess till the 23rd but Senate canceled it to come back on Monday. The bill has to pass the house first and they did not 100% agree yesterday so senate has no reason to work today. They are showing willingness to work across the aisle this time.

 

[T3SLA3]

So I understand everyone has their own risk tolerance level. I am a long and a bull, accumulating since 2013 and so I am still very happy with my returns. I have also burned myself a few times trying to time the market, so I was on a buy and hold strategy.

However... I am actually thinking about selling today with this slight green shade and going all cash for a while.

I am conflicted of course. There are few short term positives for Tesla right now, like Model Y deliveries, a possibly OK to good Q1 (better than what the Street expects) even with Corona impact and then later possibly announcing new batteries once again leapfrogging the industry by half a decade or more. But, this health crisis and the stock market crash will still probably get worse before it gets better. (Some people I respect on this forum, as well as the likes of Tesla analysts like Rob Maurer and investor Chamath Palihapitiya seem to be of this opinion too).

Even as we go into a recovery phase from the virus, the impact on the economy may be lasting, possibly impacting Q2 and beyond for Tesla. Additionally, there could production shutdowns due to health concerns or supply chain disruptions, not mentioning any unexpected shocks like Elon or world leaders getting sick. Not that I don't expect them to recover, the psychological effect would be huge though.

Long story short, I fully believe the company and even the stock will go back to growth once the dust settles, I think the next few months are super uncertain.

I know most of us are in the buy and hold camp here, but these are not normal times. So I'd like to hear some thoughts for a reality check here. Am I being rational in light of current events, or did I let the fear of this pandemic get to me?

I feel the same.
I have been buying TSLA since 2016.
Sold 60% at $800+ to lock in some profits.
Liquidated the remainder yesterday near premarket open after listening to various disturbing news stories.
With cash in the account, I am hoping to get back in when we start hearing some positive news.

 

[lklundin]

It is not yet posted on supercharge.info, but according to the very reliable Norwegian tu.no (technical, weekly magazine), the first 250 kW supercharger stalls are now online in Norway. I believe these are the first v3 stalls on the European mainland (while still none in the EU),

Teknisk Ukeblad on Twitter

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Thanks everybody here for seeing this coming and discussing the facts and szenarios that might happen.
Let's keep this an incredible place to exchange information to keep an edge on the markets and make great investment decisions!
Let's keep focused on what might happen during the next days, weeks and month!

 

[dww12]

Future turned green. Im gonna say this now. Im gonna deleverage a bit tomorrow letting go of 20% of my beloved shares. Margin has been keeping me restless.

Or buy 1-2 week OTM puts. I sold mine yesterday but may buy them back today. I have been able to cut my margin balance by 40% buying puts on good days and selling on bad. My account is down but so is my margin % and I still have all my shares. A Pelosi deal plus Y deliveries may make this the bottom for TSLA.

 

[dw4ngg]

Or buy 1-2 week OTM puts. I sold mine yesterday but may buy them back today. I have been able to cut my margin balance by 40% buying puts on good days and selling on bad. My account is down but so is my margin % and I still have all my shares. A Pelosi deal plus Y deliveries may make this the bottom for TSLA.

This is what I’m doing. Going back from white SPY to black SPY.
Unless I get the feeling the green may prolong into weekend. But my concern is the Trumpster getting the COVID-19

 

[ProfTournesol]

Or buy 1-2 week OTM puts. I sold mine yesterday but may buy them back today. I have been able to cut my margin balance by 40% buying puts on good days and selling on bad. My account is down but so is my margin % and I still have all my shares. A Pelosi deal plus Y deliveries may make this the bottom for TSLA.

If closing freemont for one or two weeks is priced in. What do you think?

 

[dc_h]

Bottom

WTF?

 

[dww12]

Chances are if it passes the house, it will pass the senate
The senate majority leader basically told pelosi: you work with the secretary (mnuchin). Then house reps also rejected the first effort based on abortion measure. So if Mnuchin agrees on this proposal, chances are house reps will ok it. If both house reps and mnuchin ok it, reps majority senate will pass it
If it passes both houses, Trump will ok it because it was him who sent Mnuchin to work with pelosi.

As long as they name it “Trumps very patriotic big plan to save the US from the crash caused by Obama, not Trump, and the virus sent from the Chinese”

 

[KarenRei]

Am I being rational in light of current events, or did I let the fear of this pandemic get to me?

Simply remember that single person who sells is hoping they can time the bottom to jump back in. And not a single one of them has the ability to know in advance whether they're seeing a false bottom. All will be tempted to buy, but at the same time, to wait to see if it's really the bottom. Meanwhile, the market will gap down and up dramatically at times, preventing one from rapidly changing their mind in response to news; the algobots will get to react to the news before anyone else does.

So, caution is advised.

 

[Prunesquallor]

On this topic IB sent out a bulletin this morning, that due to unprecedented volatility in the global markets they expect to increase their margin requirements 50% from current levels.

I’m expecting something like that from E*Trade, too. They’ve flipped back and forth between 45% and 55% margin equity for TSLA. Its 45% now (thought I was fat and happy having it at 80% a few weeks ago - ha).

 

[Fobble]

If closing freemont for one or two weeks is priced in. What do you think?

Looks like you are either looking to buy or to short TSLA?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Given the age of OP: think about them like 1 share = 1 tesla car by the time you reach retirement age

Yes, this is correct. Lets demonstrate mathematically that's its just 20% annual compound growth. Given:

Age: 39
Retirement: 65
Years to compound: 26
Cost of a Model Y/FSD: $50,000
Inflation: 1.5%/yr

SP(600) * (ACR)^26 = $50,000
Solving for Annual Compounding Rate: (ACR) = 20%
Note: this includes an allowance for 1.5%/yr inflation​

Let's change one assumption: Given Elon's anticipated 50% growth rate, how many years until that ACR turns 1 share into a self-driving Model Y?

Answer is 11.2 years. See there's hope for us old guys too, wot?

Cheers!

EDIT: SP now $606.20 so recompute....

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I am conflicted of course. There are few short term positives for Tesla right now, like Model Y deliveries, a possibly OK to good Q1 (better than what the Street expects) even with Corona impact and then later possibly announcing new batteries once again leapfrogging the industry by half a decade or more. But, this health crisis and the stock market crash will still probably get worse before it gets better. (Some people I respect on this forum, as well as the likes of Tesla analysts like Rob Maurer and investor Chamath Palihapitiya seem to be of this opinion too).

This is all correct. Here's my reasoning though for getting back in at 550 because FOMO.

When I had an incredibly lucky run turning my X shares into 4X over the last 6 months or so there were only one huge misstep. And that was caused by the totally surprising 2.3B share sale that Elon did. Everything indicated SP would go down the next day so I was out of almost all my calls. Tesla did a great move for Tesla and I was cursing them for it. And probably lost something like 20% on those calls instead of making 50% the next few days (can't remember exactlly but something like that).

What I'm saying is that is there a good chance we can go back down to $400 or even lower. Not unrealistic at all. But I think there is an at least equal chance that Tesla pulls a rabbit out of the hat and does or presents some totally unexpected good thing anytime. Might be today or in a month. I still also think they will hold the production and deliveries at good numbers.

There's a lot (as in lots lots lots) of cash sitting on the sidelines now. Much of that money will go into the first companies that show strength. I expect Tesla to be one of those so in the end I see it as likely that we are up $200 as down $200 both in a week or a month from now.

 

[lklundin]

So I understand everyone has their own risk tolerance level. I am a long and a bull, accumulating since 2013 and so I am still very happy with my returns. I have also burned myself a few times trying to time the market, so I was on a buy and hold strategy.

However... I am actually thinking about selling today with this slight green shade and going all cash for a while.

I am conflicted of course. There are few short term positives for Tesla right now, like Model Y deliveries, a possibly OK to good Q1 (better than what the Street expects) even with Corona impact and then later possibly announcing new batteries once again leapfrogging the industry by half a decade or more. But, this health crisis and the stock market crash will still probably get worse before it gets better. (Some people I respect on this forum, as well as the likes of Tesla analysts like Rob Maurer and investor Chamath Palihapitiya seem to be of this opinion too).

Even as we go into a recovery phase from the virus, the impact on the economy may be lasting, possibly impacting Q2 and beyond for Tesla. Additionally, there could production shutdowns due to health concerns or supply chain disruptions, not mentioning any unexpected shocks like Elon or world leaders getting sick. Not that I don't expect them to recover, the psychological effect would be huge though.

Long story short, while I fully believe the company and even the stock will go back to growth once the dust settles, I think the next few months are super uncertain.

I know most of us are in the buy and hold camp here, but these are not normal times. So I'd like to hear some thoughts for a reality check here. Am I being rational in light of current events, or did I let the fear of this pandemic get to me?

You seem to consider one of two options:
1) continue holding, or
2) sell now and buy back later.

Your risks with 1) are:
1A) opportunity cost: If you hold, you miss out on the opportunity to place your funds in something more stable/profitable. In hindsight you will always be able to point to something that would have been more profitable.
1B) risk of total loss: In principle, Tesla could go out of business while you hold their shares.
1C) Fear of loss: If you doubt Tesla's business prospects within your investment time frame, you may experience concern that the SP will not come back to previous levels.
1D) If you have invested borrowed money or otherwise are on margin, risk of a margin call: A forced close of (part of) your position.

Your risks with 2) are:
2A) Risk of SP going up: You may find yourself unable to get back in, chasing the SP as it goes up - similar to 1A. This is a case of trying to catch a falling knife.
2B) Tax implications: with realized gains, there may be tax implications, leaving you with less cash, This you can quantify before making your decision.
2C) The mere concern of 2A, called FOMO (fear of missing out), similar to 1C). This in turn can cause you to execute ill-considered trades, e.g. buying back for more than you sold for on a time frame shorter than you had first envisioned.

Apart from the tax implications (and the hopefully small transaction costs), I would say this is mostly an exercise in psychology, how your feelings of fear & greed balance against each other, where it helps to know yourself.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I'm not pretending I understand this but Italy is +13%, Russia +10% and many other European markets anywhere from 6-8%.

I should probably go back to playing poker instead of trying to understand markets.

 

[anthonyj]

I'm not pretending I understand this but Italy is +13%, Russia +10% and many other European markets anywhere from 6-8%.

I should probably go back to playing poker instead of trying to understand markets.

What we are seeing in the whole market is the inverse of what we saw in TSLA during February. Total annihilation of leveraged accounts and hedge funds